摘要
世界范围内的电力工业市场化改革改变了电力系统管理、规划和运行的本质,中长期发电容量充裕性问题因而也具有了新的特点和面临新的挑战。长期发电容量充裕性问题在传统环境下主要是长期电力需求预测的准确性问题,而市场环境下则变成各发电公司分散投资决策的结果。发电容量在一些国家的不足、过剩或周期性变化所产生的巨大负面影响,已经引起越来越广泛的注意。确保长期发电容量充裕性成为电力市场建设需要解决的重要基础问题之一。为此,学术界和工业界提出并实践了各种方法,但依然没有一致结论,仍需要对其进行深入研究,这包括:仅靠单一能量市场能否引导足够的发电投资;现有的市场机制/模式哪个更有效;如何进行市场设计和确定相关参数;以及谁应该对确保发电容量充裕性负责,市场引导与管制手段哪个更有效,政府或监管机构负有什么职责等相关问题。同时,与中期发电容量充裕性密切相关的发电机组检修计划安排也发生了根本改变,由系统调度机构的集中调度转变为各发电公司最大化各自利益的分散决策。发展适应于电力市场环境的发电机组检修计划的方法框架是解决确保中期发电容量充裕性这一问题的关键所在。本论文针对上述几个方面的问题进行了比较系统的研究,取得了一定的研究成果。
1)首先对能否依靠单一能量市场来确保长期发电容量充裕性这一重要而基本的问题进行了理论模型分析和实践应用方面的讨论,结果表明无论在理想的完全竞争市场环境下,还是在实际运营的电力市场中,单一能量市场模式都难以确保发电容量的充裕性。
2)重点总结和分析比较了近似传统规划法、容量费用模式、容量责任和装机容量模式、区域装机容量市场法、期权法、运行备用支付法和用户侧容量定购法等用于解决长期发电容量充裕性问题的方法,明确了各方法理论上的优缺点和在应用上的可行性和适用范围等。
3)讨论了确保发电容量充裕性的责任主体、方法的设计思路等,提出了确保发电容量充裕性的方法所应具备的特征,构建了一种能够满足这些特征的计及机组利用小时数的容量责任模式。
4)为研究随机环境下确保发电容量充裕性方法的参数设计问题,构建了从待决策问题的有效决策前沿曲线形状的全局角度出发的目标与机会平衡规划法,通过权衡目标收益和实现机会两个因素的数值关系和二者变化速度的对比关系,最大限度地提高决策者的决策效用。
5)构建发电容量充裕性评价体系,即在一定的能源、金融和环保等政策下,按地域和时间两个维度,全面考虑电力工业内外影响发电容量充裕性的因素进行评估,以提供发电容量充裕性的预警机制、发输电规划协调和相关政策效果的评估机制、电源投资信号的指导发布机制,并基于指标体系的特点,提出结合层次分析法、基于均衡函数的变权模式和模糊综合评价方式的指标评价方法。
6)为确保中期发电容量充裕性,首先为发电公司构造了一种计及条件风险价值的中期运行规划模型,以此为基础,研究了市场环境下的发电机组检修计划安排的特点,并建立了市场环境下调度机构协调机组检修计划的模型。该模型在分析检修计划对系统安全的影响时,不仅考虑了发电容量充裕度,还通过基于输电断面的N-1分析和拥塞率的概念适当计及了输电网络容量约束和随机的线路断开故障,并利用所提出的协调系数保证了各发电公司之间的公平性。此外,还提出了合适的算法和收入盈余的次序补偿分摊法。
最后对论文所作的研究工作进行了简要总结,并指出了在这一领域有待进一步深入研究的问题。
The power industry restructuring all over the world has changed the mode of management, planning, and operation of the power industry. Accordingly, the mid-term and long-term generation capacity adequacy (GCA) problems gain new characteristics, facing new challenges. In the traditional environment, the long-term GCA is mainly on the accuracy of long-term load forecasting. However, in the new market environment, it turns to be the result of decentralized individual decision-making of generation companies (GENCOs). The shortage, redundancy or periodical variation of generation capacity in some countries have led to huge negative influence and attracted more and more attention. To ensure the long-term GCA is one of the most important and fundamental issues in designing and developing an electricity market. Several methods are proposed or employed in academic and industry fields, but none of them has been broadly approved. Some issues are required to be analyzed further, including whether the energy-only market could induce sufficient generation investment, which to be the most effective way in the practice, how to design new mechanisms and determine the pertinent parameters, who to be responsible for the GCA, which to be better between the market way and the regulation way, what to be the responsibilities of the government and so on. Meantime, the unit maintenance scheduling (UMS) which affects the mid-term GAC has been transformed from the centralized dispatch by the Indepent System Operator (ISO) to the decision-making of each individual GENCO for maximizing its own profit. To develop the framework of UMS in accordance to the requirement of the power market is the key to ensure the mid-term GCA. In this thesis, the above issues are investigated systematically and some significant results are obtained as detailed below.
1. Based on the theoretical model and practical discussion, the paper makes analysis on the issue whether the energy-only market can ensure the long-term GCA. Both the theoretical deduction results under perfect condition and the discussion conclusions on actual performance under real environment show that it is difficult for the energy-only market to ensure generation capacity adequacy.
2. Several widely employed or established methods are investigated, including similar traditional planning, capacity payments, capacity obligations, installed capacity market, locational installed capacity market, options, operating reserve payments, and capacity subscription. And the theoretical advantages and disadvantages, as well as the practical feasibility and the adaptive scope of these approaches are identified.
3. The issues, such as entities responsible for the GCA and the design way, are specified; and the characteristics required for a method adaptive to ensure sufficient generation capacity are proposed. Additionally, a kind of capacity obligations mechanism with consideration of the annual utilization hours of generating units is developed, which can meet the above required characteristics.
4. To determine the interrelated parameters in the methods to ensure the GCA, a new programming method, termed as Balance Programming between Target and Chance, is proposed. It can maximize the decision utility through weighing the quantity relation and comparing the changing velocity between the target profit and the realization chance, based on the all-around information about the effective decision front curve of the concerned problems. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by building the bidding strategies for GENCOs with risk management in an electricity market environment.
5. To construct the evaluation index system of the GCA aims to supply the early-warning system, the evaluation system of coordination between generation pannling and transmission planning as well as the effect of the relevant policies, and the direction system of effective generation investment signals, through assessing all the relevant elements in and out of the power industry, according to two dimensions, i.e. the region and the time, in the certain policy environment of energy, financial and environment protection. Considering the traits of the index, the paper adopts an integrated evaluation way with the employment of the analytical hierarchy process, the changing weighing mode based on the balanced functions, and the fuzzy synthesis.
6. To ensure the mid-term GCA, a mid-term operation planning model with risk management is developed for the GENCOs firstly. And based on the model, the characteristics of UMS in the market environment are analyzed. Then a new UMS coordination model is constructed for the ISO in this paper so as to cater for the market environment. When we analyze the impact of UMS on the power system security, the GCA is taken into consideration together with the transmission capacity constrains by integrating the 'N-1' examination of lines and the concept of congestion rate. And the model may ensure the fairness among the GENCOs through the proposed coordination coefficient. In addition, the adequate solution for this model and the allocation way about the ISO's income are supplied.
Finally, conclusions are made based on the research outcomes, and directions for future research indicated.
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