摘要
在科学构建成渝经济区的背景下,解决好成都市的就业问题是我们必须长期面对的重大民生问题。建立成都市失业预警系统模型,是新形势下实施扩大就业的发展战略,改善民生,完善社会保障体系,实现成都市劳动保障部门参与宏观经济调控,积极做好就业工作的重要手段之一。
本文首先针对当前我国失业预警研究中的不足,研究把握成都市失业的警情,估计警限,系统分析和总结失业的警源,分析警兆,建立起一套成都市失业预警判断指标体系;其次,以成都市失业预警判断指标体系为基础,结合近年来成都市劳动保障部门庞大的实时信息数据库,采用径向基神经网络方法,建立失业预警模型,并用支持向量回归建模结果进行验证比较,最后借助扩散指数方法判断失业率的变动,预报失业警度。
Under the background of constrcting the Chengdu-Chongqin economic zone in scientific method, the issue of employment in Chengdu of which significant people's livelihood is we must face for a long time. The establishment of the model on the system of unemployment early-warning in Chengdu, will implement developmental strategy of the job enlargement under the new situation,improve people's livelihood,consummate the social security system,realize Chengdu departments to participate in the macroeconomic regulation and control, and complete positively employment work.
This article firstly aims at the insufficinency in the system of unemployment early-warning of our country currently,researches the condition of early-warning in Chengdu,estimates the warning limit,systemically analyses and summarizes the warning source,and establishes a set of unemployment early-warning of index system;Secondly,we take the established index system of Chengdu as the foundation, establishes the model of unemployment early-warning, by the mothed of Radial basis neural network, with the aid of huge unemployment data in Chengdu departments in recent years.Also,we testify the result of unemployment early-warning by the method of Support Vector Regression Machine. Finally it makes the general evaluation and the early warning for unemployment rate in Chengdu according to the diffused exponent.
引文
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