摘要
土地利用规划是对一定区域未来土地利用超前性的计划和安排,是依区域社会经济发展和土地的自然历史特性在时空上进行土地资源分配和合理组织土地利用与保护的土地管理综合措施。土地利用总体规划是土地利用规划体系中的重要组成部分,是土地利用管理的“龙头”,在我国土地管理事业中具有极其重要的作用,因此编制土地利用总体规划是各级人民政府的一项紧迫的任务。我国至今已进行了三轮国土全覆盖的土地利用总体规划的编制,但在规划实施时普遍存在一个问题即规划远离现实,使得土地利用总体规划频繁修改。本文结合作者所参与的重庆市江津区土地利用总体规划修编试点,分析了10年间对规划编制影响较大的因素,力求完善规划编制的体系和方法,在规划编制和实施过程中能减少和避免不确定因素的干扰,使得规划更具有科学性和可行性。主要研究结论如下：1,基期数据变化影响土地利用总体规划编制
本次土地利用规划先后采用三个土地利用基期数据,最终采用的第二次土地调查的数据与原来的土地利用变更调查数据存在较大的差异。相对土地利用变更数据第二次土地调查的数据更加准确,对耕地和城镇用地指标影响很大。相比2005年的江津区土地利用变更数据耕地面积103369.34hm2,2009年的第二次土地调查的数据中耕地面积为114719.09hm2,增加了11349.75hm2。由于耕地保有量和基本农田保有量指标是依据2005年土地利用变更数据下达,至2020年江津区规划耕地保有量为100510hm2,基本农田保有量为92600hm2。以2005年土地利用变更数据计算,20052020年江津区年均耕地减少量为178.71hm2,而以2009年的第二次土地利用调查数据计算,20092020年年均耕地减少量为1184.09hm2,年均耕地可减少量增加了1005.38hm2,远超出正常情况下江津区年均占用的耕地数量,对保护耕地的几乎不起作用。为切实保护耕地,应尽快对相关指标进行评估和调整。
第二次土地调查在城镇工矿调查中,存在以航片内业判读为主,外业调查相对不足的问题。靠近镇街的农村居民点在调查中常常被调绘为城镇用地,使得城镇用地的存量增加；撤乡并镇后,撤销的乡镇驻地仍然调绘为城镇用地。.这两种情况增加了城镇用地存量,减小了城镇发展的规模。应该通过评估的方式将这部分城镇用地调整为农村居民点。
本轮规划是在先开始规划后进行第二次土地调查,县级规划指标依据2005年土地利用变更数据下达,而乡镇规划的基期数据又采用第二次土地调查数据,二者间存在较大的差异,规划方案随之发生改变,必然会导致规划实施中县级与乡镇级规划间的矛盾。应该对规划实施进行评估,如有必要应对规划指标进行调整。
2,政府行为对土地利用总体规划编制的影响
地方政府在保护耕地、扩大城镇用地等问题上,必然同中央政府或其他利益主体进行博弈,在规划实施过程中试图违规占用耕地,扩大城镇用地的规模。地方主要行政领导更替常引起执政思路改变,从而对土地利用总体规划做出调整,造成城镇用地调整在规模和布局上有比较大的改变。地方领导对土地规划的指示缺乏严谨的基础调查和深厚的专业知识,做出的决定感性认识多于理性的思索,也更容易忽视规划的严肃性,只要求规划能够灵活的满足用地需求,导致规划不但没有成为征地用地的指导,反而“用地指导规划”,在增加规划的成本的同时严重影响规划的权威。可以预见的是,地方政府在规划实施过程中仍将不断提出调整规划方案的要求,有必要增加规划的弹性以适应这种要求,但同时也要在采取措施限制政府对规划调整的冲动。
3,经济发展对土地利用总体规划编制影响
经济发展对城镇用地有极大的刺激作用。地方上为了吸引投资提出各种优惠条件,其中许多包括土地征用的优惠,投资方也因此不愿遵循土地规划,在布局和征地数量上自行提出规划,一方面破坏规划的权威性,另一方面也容易用地粗放,不利于节约集约用地。通常情况下社会经济相对发达的镇街需要的城镇用地数量大,对布局的调整相对更频繁。在许多不发达镇街尚无新的城镇用地需求时,发达镇街的建设用地需求已经突破了原有规划。笔者认为对于不同的镇街,没有必要同时进行土地利用总体规划修编,而代之以对镇街规划的执行情况进行评估,如果规划预期指标完成良好,则允许该镇街编制新的规划,使得规划成为一个动态可监测的规划。当前我国正处于经济高速发展和快速城镇化阶段,对经济社会的长期预测很困难。目前的规划期长达10年,在规划实施的后期预测与实际情况往往存在较大差异。结合我国国民经济五年计划和政府部门五年任期,建议土地利用的规划期与之相适应。
4,政策变化对土地利用总体规划编制影响
在第三轮土地利用总体规划修编过程中,先后出台了退耕还林、城乡建设用地增减挂钩等政策。江津区的县级土地利用总体规划方案中也根据这两个政策做出相应的安排。但规划尚未完成,这两个政策已经根据实际情况进行较大的调整。政策的调整提高了规划编制的成本,增加了规划的不确定性,也影响了规划的按期完成。5,技术规范对土地利用总体规划编制影响
新的《乡(镇)土地利用总体规划编制规程)》更加注意规划的弹性。在规划指标数量方面,允许保留部分机动指标,提供给计划外、难以预期的建设用地使用。在建设用地布局与管制上提出了“有条件建设区”的概念,使得城镇用地规划更加灵活,有利于规划的实施。但交通运输用地在规程中不属于允许建设区,无法通过有条件建设区来保证交通用地规划的弹性,规划实施时与原规划方案略有出入就需要修改规划,不利于规划的实施,应当在后续的技术规范中做出完善。
新的规程中,公路等线状地物穿过城镇时不再作为交通用地,而是作为城镇用地或者农村居民点统计。这样的统计方式下,一部分原有的公路随着城镇的扩张被统计为城镇用地,一部分被统计为农村居民点,导致土地利用总体规划中交通用地的增量难以反映实际上的交通用地变化情况,同时使得城镇用地的面积虚增。
采用GIS建设土地利用总体规划数据库大大提高了规划数据的精度,有利于使用RS、GPS等技术手段对土地利用总体规划的实施进行动态监控。但按照2011年的《土地利用总体规划数据质量检查细则》和土地利用总体规划数据库成果质量检查软件的要求,规划数据库在实施时普遍存在一个问题即规划数据库标准不符合管理要求。规划数据库要求的最小上图面积是4mm2,在农村居民点规划和交通用地规划上,都造成很多不便,也与卫片监测、例行督察等技术规范不一致。从土地管理的角度考虑,应对此规范进行调整。
综上所述,本文在借鉴前人的研究成果的基础上,分析了土地利用总体规划编制中“刚性”与“弹性”相结合在理论上和实践上的意义,探讨了新一轮土地利用总体规划修编和实施中如何实现刚性与弹性；论证了现行土地规划是受国家政策、经济发展、基础资料变化、地方政府领导变动等偶然因素所驱动的。
Land use planning is a foresight arrangement for future land utilization of a certain region, and also an integrated measure of land management for land resources distribution and reasonable land utilization in time and space according to the natural and historic characteristic of land and the regional social and economic development. The general land use planning is an important constitute of the land use planning system and the leading composition of the land utilization and management, which plays crucial role in the overall picture of land management of China. Therefore, compilation of the general land use planning is an urgent task among different levels of people's governments. Up to the present, there have been three rounds of general land use planning and compilation carried out throughout the country. The question that the planning frequently fails to meet actual situations is ubiquitous and asks for repetitive revisions afterwards. In this paper, the general land use planning and compilation of Jiangjin District, Chongqing during a time period of10years was used as an example to analyze the most-influencing factors in the process. The aims of the paper are to supplement the methods of planning, reduce and avoid the uncertain disturbances of the process and make the planning more scientific and applicable. The main research conclusions are as follows.
1. The influence of base period data variation on the general land use planning and formation
The present study used data of all three rounds of general land use planning of the area. It was found that the second land survey data was more accurate; effects were larger for cultivated land and urban industrial land use. Compared with the land use change data of2005in Jiangjin showing the area of cultivated land being103369.34hm2, it was identified as114719.09hm2in the second land survey of2009; the addition was11349.75hm2. According to the land use change data, the holding capacity for cultivated land and basic farmland were100510hm2and92600hm2respectively. Based on the data of2005, the annual average decrement of the cultivated land area was178.71hm2from2005to2020. As for the data of2009, it became1184.09hm2from2009to2020. Thus the potential annual average decrease was1005.38hm2, which went far beyond the normal average quantity of cultivated land occupation and did no good to the conception of cultivated land protection. So the relevant indexes should be evaluated and adjusted. The overuse of aerial photograph interpretation and lack of field investigation resulted in remarkable errors for collecting data of urban and industrial land use in the second land survey. The rural settlements near town were often misread as urban industrial land and evacuated area after urban emerging was also noted as urban industrial land. These errors led to the fact that the area of the urban industrial land was abnormally increased and the size of the town was therefore narrowed. Certain adjustments and correction should be made after assessment. In addition, the country-level planning was based on the data of2005, while the town-level planning was based on the data of the second land survey in the current planning. It was obvious that the huge difference between these two sets of data would lead to certain contradictions. As a result, assessment in the planning and implementation process was needed, if necessary, some planning details might be adjusted.
2. The influence of government action on the general land use planning and compilation
Negotiations are inevitable between the local government and the central government of the country concerning with the issue of cultivated land protection and urban industrial land expansion. The central government pays more attention to the cultivated land protection while the local government tries to expand the urban industrial land use area out of economic benefits. The changing of local leaders goes with changing of ruling ideas. It directly influences the general land use planning, especially big change in the size and layout of the urban industrial land use. The local leaders' decisions are more sensational than rational out of scant field investigation and rare professional knowledge. It lacks rigorous thinking of the general planning and only meets the demand of flexible land usage, which results that the planning does not guide the actual land usage, on the contrary, the latter becomes the only guideline of the former. The cost for land planning is increased and the authority of planning is at stake. It is foreseeable that, the local government will continue making adjusting requirements while implementing the plan. Therefore, it is necessary to add the flexibility of the planning beforehand and limit the unnecessary impulse of adjusting afterwards.
3. The influence of economic development on the general land use planning and compilation
Economic growth is a pushing force for urban industrial land expansion. In order to attract more investment, the local government puts forward some preferential terms, including preference for land acquisition. Hence, investors find it unnecessary to follow the general land use planning with regard to the size and the layout of the land. This not only breaks the entirety of the land utilization planning, but also leads to extensive use of land, which go against the concept of intensivism. The relatively more developed towns have a high need for land, and the adjustment of layout is more frequent. They usually overrun the limit of the planning while the less developed towns have no need at all. As a result, it is unnecessary to formulate general land use planning for all towns at the same time, instead of which evaluating their implementation of previous planning. If the previous planning was carried out well, then new planning is. allowed. In this way, it is under dynamic monitoring and controlling. China is undergoing high-speed economic development and rapid urbanization, so it is difficult to make long-term prediction. The planning cycle is as long as ten years at present, so the planning of later period usually contradicts with the actual situation. Considering China's national economy plan and term of office are both five years, the planning period could be changed correspondingly.
4. The influence of the policy variation on the general land use planning and compilation
During the third general land use planning and compilation, the government successively put forward the policy of returning the farmland to forest and land use balance of cultivated land and residential land. Correspondent adjustments were made according to the requirements of policies through the general land use planning of Jiangjin. However, before the planning was finished, the policies were changed again. The variations of the policy increased the uncertainty of the planning and delayed the completion.
5. The influence of technical specifications on the general land use planning and compilation
The new Guidelines for General Land Use Planning of Village (Town) pays more attention to the flexibility of the planning. For the number of planning area, extra land is allowed to be preserved for unexpected and necessary land use. As for the layout and controlling of the construction land, a concept of "conditional construction zone" is came up with to make the urban industrial land use planning more flexible and more practical to implement. But this policy is not applied to the transportation land use, which causes inconvenience and needs revision in the following guidelines.
Roads and other linear features across town are no longer viewed as transportation land use in the new guideline. They are regarded as either urban land use or residential settlements. This incorrect statistical method fails to indicate the actual land area for transportation and unfairly increases the urban land use area.
The accuracy of the planning data is greatly improved by the introduction of GIS, which also allows dynamic monitoring of the implementation process through techniques of RS and GPS. According to The Procedures of Data Inspection in General Land Use Planning issued in2011and the requirements for inspection software, the planning database does not come up to the requirements. The smallest area on the map of the planning area is4mm2, which brings much inconvenience in land use planning for rural residential settlements and transportation, and disagrees with the technical norms of the satellite images and routine inspection. From the perspective of land management, this guideline should be revised.
In conclusion, with reference to the planning example of Jiangjin District, the relationship and combination of rigidity and flexibility was analyzed regarding to their theoretical and practical meaning and its application to the new round of general land use planning was investigated. Moreover, the present paper discussed how the present land planning was affected by variation of basic data, government policy, economic development and the governing of local government.
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