摘要
我国建设企业普遍存在发展资金不足、利润率过低,项目管理水平不高、科技创新能力不强等问题,严重影响建设企业健康、可持续地发展,如何解决这些问题是当前建设管理领域研究的热点。建设企业的管理涉及企业的内部结构、动力机制、资源储备、管理行为及市场外部环境等诸多复杂的动态因素,传统的建设管理机制难以奏效。本文运用系统动力学(System Dynamics,简称SD)原理,通过建立模拟企业管理系统各环节运转情况的动态仿真模型,预演企业技术经济参数的变化及企业策略因素介入对管理系统行为的影响,为企业管理决策提供支持。本文围绕建设企业管理创新与健康诊断研究进行了相关的研究工作,取得了以下成果：
1、构建了企业的资金发展规划的系统动力学模型,来解决资金发展规划中多目标性、时变动态性和多重反馈的仿真问题。并利用所建模型对某企业资金发展规划备选方案进行了比选决策。
2、构建了在建工程进度管理系统动力学模型,对在建工程进度目标进行动态控制,并针对在建工程实施过程中可能出现的影响工程进度的突发情况,进行策略模拟,选择最优策略。
3、构建了建设企业库存管理系统动力学模型,通过模拟研究了如何有效的降低库存峰值及库存成本。并分析了因返工材料用量增加和采购时间延误两种情形对项目成本的影响。
4、建立了分析建设企业科技创新能力的系统动力学模型,通过模拟案例可以得出：利用增加科技创新投入和员工培训投入来提高科技创新能力、企业产值和利润在投入水平较低的阶段是有效的,但当投入达到一定限度时,再增加投入并不会明显的增加产值和利润,这时候就要将主要精力投入到提高专利转化率上。
5、构建了建设企业健康诊断指标体系,并利用突变理论评价方法,计算了健康诊断体系各项指标值。并选取了国内“安徽水利”等8家上市建设企业资料作为背景,进行了企业健康诊断案例分析。通过对“安徽水利：2004-2009年各项指标值的计算分析,给出了该企业的健康状况评价值。同时还将“安徽水利”与其他7家上市建设企业进行了横向的诊断比较,分析了“安徽水利”与同行企业相比存在的问题及今后的改进方向。
本文的研究成果为突破传统建设企业管理理念及管理方法提供了新的思路。
Generally, there are many problems in the construction enterprises in China, such as lack of development funds, the lower profit margins, the poor project management skills, the weak technology innovation capacity, and so on. These problems will seriously influence the healthy and sustainable development of construction enterprises. How to solve these problems has became a research highlight of construction management field. The management for construction enterprises relates to lots of complicated and dynamic factors which involve internal structure of the firm, dynamic mechanism, resource stocks, management behavior, external market environment, and so on. System Dynamics theory is applied to the paper to eatablish the dynamic simulation model of management system in enterprises. Based on model simulation, it is previewed that how to influence management system behavior by changing technical and economical parameters together with coporate policy. The simulation results can provide supports for management decision.
Management innovation and health diagnostic of construction enterprises were restudied in this paper and the results were obtained as follows:
Fisrtly, the System Dynamics model of the capital development plan was constructed to solute the issues in the plan which included multi-objective, time variation, dynamic and multi-feedback property. And the model was applied to compare and select the alternatives of the capital development plan in the case study.
Secondly, the SD model of schedule management was constructed to dynamically control the schedule objective for construction in progress. The model was also used to perform policy simulation to select the best strategy when the emergency situations were occurred in the implementation process of the project.
Thirdly, the SD model of inventory management was constructed to study how to reduce inventory peak value and cost effectively based on model simulation. Also, the influences of increasing the usage amount of materials due to rework and delaying the procurement time on project cost were analyzed.
Fourthly, the SD model of technical innovation was established to analyze the technical innovation capacity of construction enterprises. Then, through the imitation cases study, we could obtain:it was a certain limit to increase technology innovation and staff training inputs to raise capacity and increase of enterprises. When the inputs reached a certain limit, additional input could not significantly increase gross product and profits. And at this time, the focal point of technology innovation should go to improving conversion rate of the patent.
Lastly, the health diagnosis index system of construction enterprises was established. And catastrophe theory evaluation method was used to calculate the values of the system. Then, eight listed construction companies were chosen as the cases including "Anhui Water Resources Company Co. Ltd". The assessment value of the company's health status was obtained through calculating and analyzing the index values of "Anhui Water Resources Company Co. Ltd" during 2004 to 2009. And the horizontal comparative analysis between this company and other seven listed companies was made to find the existing problems and the improvement direction in the future.
The research results of the paper provide a new idea for breaking through the traditional management ideas and approaches of construction enterprises.
引文
[1]http://enr.construction.com/Default.asp
[2]建设部工程质量安全监督与行业发展司等.中国建筑业改革与发展研究报告2006.北京：中国建筑工业出版社.2006
[3]中华人民共和国统计局.中国建筑业统计年鉴2003-2009.http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/
[4]刘力钢.企业持续发展论.北京：经济管理出版社,2000
[5]钟陆文.论企业可持续发展的理论内涵.佛山科学技术学院学报(社会科学版),2003,21(1)：65-68
[6]殷建平.大企业持续发展.上海：上海财经大学出版社,1999
[7]肖海林,王方华.企业可持续发展新论.当代财经,2004,(7)：69-72
[8]杨文斌.基于系统动力学的企业成长研究[博士学位论文].上海：同济大学图书馆,2006
[9]Higgins R. C. Analysis for financial management(6th).. New York:McGraw Hill, 2003
[10]Home J. C. V., Wachowic J. M. Fundamentals of financial management(13th). London:Prentice Hall,2008
[11]Rappoport A. Creating shareholder value. New York:The free press,1980
[12]Colley J. H., Doyle J. L., Hardie R. D. Corporate Strategy. New York:McGraw Hill,2002
[13]邱英.企业可持续发展财务评价理论与方法研究[博士学位论文].成都：四川大学图书馆,2007
[14]周水银,陈荣秋.上市公司的可持续发展问题研究.中国软科学,2000,(6)：46-49
[15]宋剑锋.会计盈余的可持续性和对资本市场的意义.证券市场导报,2000,(1)： 40-43
[16]潘琰,程小可.上市公司经营业绩的主成分评价方法.会计研究,2000,(1)：31-35
[17]苏冬蔚,吴仰儒.我国上市公式可持续发展的计量模型与实证分析.经济研究,2005,(1)：106-116
[18]郭复初,郑亚光.经济可持续发展财务论.北京：经济出版社,2006
[19]Kale S., Arditi D. Competitive positioning in United States construction industry. Journal of construction engineering and management,2002,128(3):238-247
[20]David T., Stuart A., Elizabeth C. Framework for competency and capability assessment for resource allocation. Journal of management in engineering,2002, 18(1):44-49
[21]赖熹,关柯.大型建筑企业国际竞争力的评价研究.四川建筑科学研究,2001,(1)：73-75
[22]张青林.面对WTO的中国建筑业.建筑经济,2002,(1)：9-11
[23]申立银,李启明,谭永涛.中国建筑企业竞争力参数模型.建筑经济,2002,(8)：8-12
[24]邢艳芳,徐新生.建筑企业竞争力的综合评价.山东建材,2000,(6)：23-25
[25]陈列伟.面向建筑企业竞争力提升的竞争模式与竞争战略研究[博士学位论文].天津：天津大学图书馆,2006
[26]傅俊元.中国建筑企业成长能力研究[博士学位论文].北京：北京交通大学图书馆,2008
[27]邹心勇.中国大型承包商战略能力成熟度的研究[博士学位论文].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学图书馆,2008
[28]周全.基于核心竞争力的建筑企业可持续发展研究[博士学位论文].武汉：武汉理工大学图书馆,2009
[29]Forrester J W. Principles of Systems. Cambridge:Wright-Allen Press,1971
[30]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学——反馈动态性复杂分析.北京：高等教育出版 社,2002
[31]Robert J. C. The role of system dynamics in understanding the impact of changes to key project personnel on design production within construction projects. International journal of project management,1998,16(4):235-247
[32]Ford A. Waiting for the boom:a simulation study of power plant construction in California. Energy policy,2001,29(11):847-869
[33]Richardson G. P., Pugh A. L. Introduction to system dynamics modelling with DYNAMO. Boston:The MIT Press,1981
[34]Forrester J. Industrial dynamics. Boston:The MIT Press,1961
[35]Love P. E. D., Mandal P., Li H. Determining the causal structure of rework influences in construction. Construction management and economics,1997,17(4): 505-517
[36]Love P. E. D., Mandal P., Smith J. Modelling the dynamics of design error induced rework in construction. Construction management and economics,2000,18(5): 567-574
[37]Love P. E. D., Holt G D, Shen L. Y., et al. Using systems dynamics to better understand change and rework in construction project management systems. International journal of project management,2002,20(6):425-436
[38]Cooper K. G How managers influence project performance through the rework cycle. Project management journal,1994,25(1):11-24
[39]Kim K. H. System dynamics in construction industry [master thesis]. Austin: University of Texas Library,1996
[40]Sidewell A. C. Project management:dynamics and performance. Construction management and economics,1990,8(2):159-178
[41]Ford D. N. The dynamics of project management:an investigation of the impacts of projects process and coordination on performance[master thesis]. Boston:MIT library,1995
[42]Rodrigues A. Managing and modelling project risk dynamics:a system dynamics-based framework. In:PMI Europe. Project managemnt conference, London:PMI Europe,2001:6-12
[43]Wang W. C., Liu J. J. Chou S. C. Simulation-based safety evaluation model integrated with network schedule. Automation in construction,2006,15(3): 341-354
[44]Kimberly R., James L. The dynamics of project performance:benchamarking the drivers of cost and schedule overrun. European management journal,1999,17(2): 135-150
[45]Alexandre R., John B.. The role of system dynamics in project management. International Journal of Project Management,1996,14(4):213-220
[46]SangHyun Lee, Pena-mora F., Moonseo Park. Quality and change management framework for concurrent design and construction. In:ASCE. Construction research congress, Winds of change:Integration and innovation in construction, Proceedings of the congress. Reston:American Society of Civil Engineers,2003: 143-150
[47]SangHyun Lee, Pena-mora F., Moonseo Park. Dynamic error and change management in concurrent design and construction. In:ASCE. Construction research congress 2005:Broadening perspectives-Proceedings of the congress. Reston:American Society of Civil Engineers,2005:84-95
[48]SangHyun Lee, Pena-mora F., Moonseo Park. Reliability and stability buffering approach:focusing on the issues of errors and changes in concurrent design and construction projects. Journal of computing in civil engineering,2006,132(5): 452-464
[49]SangHyun Lee, Pena-mora F., Moonseo Park. Web-enabled system dynamics model for error and change management on concurrent design and construction projects. Journal of computing in civil engineering,2006,20(4):290-300
[50]Moonseo Park. Model-based dynamic resource management for construction projects. Automation in construction,2005,14(5):587-598
[51]Moonseo Park, Hyun-Soo Lee, Bo-Sik Son, et al. Dynamic resource management. In:ASCE. Proceedings of the 2005 ASCE international conference on computing in civil engineering,2005:1-12
[52]KeungSik Choi, Doo-Hwan Bae. Dynamic project performance estimation by combining static estimation models with system dynamics. Information and software technology,2009,51(1):162-172
[53]Anders S.. Project management of unexpected events. International journal of project management,2008,26(1):80-86
[54]Motawa I. A., Anumba C. J., Lee S., et al. An integrated system for change management in construction. Automation in construction,2007,16(3):368-377
[55]Nepal M. P., Park M., Son B.. Effects of schedule pressure on construction performance. Journal of construction engineering and management,2006,132(2): 182-188
[56]Pena-mora F., Park M. Dynamic planning for fast-tracking building construction projects. Journal of construction engineering and management,2001,127(6): 445-456
[57]SangHyun Lee, Pena-mora F., Moonseo Park. Dynamic planning and control methodology for strategic and operational construction project management. Automation in construction,2006,15(1):84-97
[58]Ryu H. G., Lee H. S., Park M. Construction planning method using case-based reasoning. Journal of computing in civil engineering,2007,21(6):410-422
[59]Park M., Nepal M. P., Dulaimi M. F. Dynamic modeling for construction innovation. Journal of management in engineering,2004,20(4):170-177
[60]Na L. J., Ofon G., Park M. Stimulating construction innovation in Singapore through the national system of innovation. Journal of construction engineering and management,2006,32(10):1069-1082
[61]Rohan S. Applying system dynamics and critical chain methods to develop a modern construction project management system[master thesis]. Texas:Texas A&M University Library,2004
[62]Tommelein I. D. Discrete-event simulation of lean construction processes. In: IGLC. Proceedings 5th Ann. conference international Group for lean construction. Queensland:Griffith University Press,1997:121-135
[63]Han S. W., Park M., Pena-mora F. Comparative study of discrete-event simulation and system dynamics for construction process planning. In:ASCE. Construction research congress 2005. Reston:American Society of Civil Engineers,2005: 1363-1372
[64]Pena-mora F., Han S. W., Lee S. H., et al. Strategic-operational construction management:hybrid system dynamics and discrete event approach. Journal of construction engineering and management,2008,134(9):701-710
[65]Lee S. H., Han S. W., Pena-mora F. Integrating construction operation and context in large-scale construction using hybrid computer simulation. Journal of computing in civil engineering,2009,23(32):75-83
[66]Lee B., Miller J. Multi-project management in software engineering using simulation modelling. Software quality journal,2004,12(1):59-82
[67]Wang Q. F., Ning X. Q. The influence of schedule target on project performance. Journal of Fudan university (natural science),2003,42(5):699-705
[68]宁晓倩,王其藩.运用系统动力学模型进行项目时间／成本估算.科技导报,2004,(9)：54-57
[69]宁晓倩.基于系统动力学的软件开发项目管理[博士学位论文].上海：复旦大学图书馆.2004
[70]Wang Q. F., Ning X. Q., You J. Advantages of system dynamics approach in managing project risk dynamics. Journal of Fudan university (natural science), 2005,44(2):201-206
[71]Xia F., Jia J. G. System dynamics modeling for overtime management strategy of software project. In:Wang Qifan. The proceedings of 2007 conference on system science, management science & system dynamics. Beijing:Publishing House of Electronics Industry,2007:2339-2346
[72]翟丽,宋学明,辛燕飞.系统动力学在软件项目管理中的应用：对解决问题各备选方案的评价.软科学,2008,22(1)：59-62
[73]雷荣军,毕星.系统动力学在建设项目管理中的应用.哈尔滨理工大学学报,2004,9(6)：72-75
[74]赵金楼,齐英.基于系统动力学模型的建设项目的资源管理研究.科技管理研究,2008,(7)：502-504
[75]周瑜,刘秋生.基于系统动力学的项目人力资源管理研究.市场现代化,2007,(1 0)：298-299
[76]尹红莲,徐光瑜,宗传河.大型工程项目突发事件机理研究.山东水利职业学院院刊,2008,(2)：6-10
[77]齐二石,王嵩.国际工程项目突发事件应急管理系统的构建研究.国际经济合作,2008,(5)：62-68
[78]严洋,路正南.基于系统动力学机制的工程项目管理研究.市场现代化,2005,(18)：75-76
[79]赵黎明,李振华.城市建设系统的动力学模型研究.中国软科学,2004,(11)：147-151
[80]王丽英.应用于城市基础设施建设的系统动力机制研究.现代财经,2008,28(5)：35-40
[81]胡天军,卫振林.高速公路社会经济效益后评估的系统动力学模型.数量经济技术经济研究,2000,(4)：58-60
[82]刘民伟,张喜.铁路投资后评估系统动力学模型及实证分析.铁路计算机应用,2008,17(1)：10-13
[83]王建军,严宝杰.公路建设项目的社会经济效益及评价方法.交通标准化,2005,(11)：102-107
[84]周仕通,李相佑,周杭.基于系统动力学基础的企业集团资金管理研究.云南财经大学学报,2006,21(4)：103-108
[85]李惠强,柯华虎,尹秀琴,翟全礼.基于系统动力学的企业资金管理决策仿真研究.华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2009,26(1)：22-26
[86]Ke Hua-hu, Li Hui-qiang. Study on project schedule risk based on System Dynamics. In:IEEE Computer Society. International conference on management and service science, Beijing,2009
[87]汪洋.旧城更新决策系统动态模型构建与仿真研究[博士学位论文].武汉：华中科技大学图书馆,2009
[88]Wang Yang, Wang Xiaoming, Yang Fan. Application of System Dynamics to project management on old urban redevelopmeng. In:IEEE. Proceedings of the 2007 International conference on engineering, services and knowledge management, Shanghai,2007
[89]Sterman J. D. Business Dynamics:Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. New York:McGraw-Hill Higher Education Press,2000
[90]Rodrigues A, Bowers J. System dynamics in project management:A comparative analysis with traditional methods. System Dynamics Review,1996,12(2):121-139
[91]刘永宁.基于供应链管理的建筑企业供应商战略合作伙伴关系发展研讨.建筑经济,2008,(12S)：8-10
[92]温志桃,董雄报.基于系统动力学的库存优化控制研究.中国管理信息化,2008,11(21)：82-85
[93]Sunil Chopra, Peter Meindl.供应链管理——战略、规划、运营.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003
[94]中华人民共和国科学技术部.中国科技统计年度报告2008.http://www.sts.org.cn/sjkl/kjtjdt/data2008/2008-1.htm
[95]胡卫敏.创新型企业的运作与发展研究[硕士学位论文].武汉：武汉理工大学图书馆,2007
[96]刘俊杰,傅毓维.基于系统动力学的高技术企业创新环境研究.科技管理研究,2007,(12)：24-27
[97]李柏洲,苏屹.大型企业原始创新系统动力学模型的构建研究.科学学与科学技术管理,2009,(12)：97-108
[98]陈永高,孙文建.基于主成分分析法的建筑企业竞争力评价研究.施工技术,2007,36(12)：33-36
[99]熊桂武.主成分分析在评价建筑企业发展水平中的应用.重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2004,21(2)：111-113
[100]邓蓉晖,夏清东.基于层次分析法的建筑企业竞争力评价研究.重庆建筑大学学报,2006,28(6)：124-127
[101]赵玉谦.基于层次分析法的建筑企业财务风险评价模型研究.现代商贸工业,2008,(10)：163-164
[102]陈帆,王孟钧.建筑企业技术创新能力模糊综合评价及实证分析.技术与创新管理,2009,30(1)：14-17
[103]陈帆,王孟钧.基于神经网络的建筑企业技术创新能力评价.科技与管理,2008,10(5)：15-18
[104]黄建.企业持续成长评价和预警研究：理论、方法与实证分析[博士学位论文].厦门：厦门大学图书馆,2006
[105]汤学俊.企业可持续成长研究[博士学位论文].南京：南京航空航天大学图书馆,2006
[106]Rene Thom. Structural stability morphogenesis. New York:Benjamin,1972
[107]刘和平,魏一鸣,苑英.复杂性科学及其在经济领域中的应用.中国管理科学,2000,817(1)：248-257
[108]凌复华.突变理论及其应用.上海：上海交通大学出版社,1988
[109]陈茂谦,师俊峰,金娟.突变评价法在煤层气评价和选区中的应用.石油钻探 技术,2009,37(2)：74-77
[110]范英兵,房彦兵,潘学锋.基于结构突变理论的我国人均GDP的趋势分析.科学技术与工程.2010,10(2)：380-384
[1]高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金“大型项目建设绿色风险管理研究”(项目负责人：李惠强,基金编号：20050487017)
[2]国防科学技术工业委员会的核能科研开发子项目：核电工程项目管理模式研究
[3]华中科技大学光谷体育中心大跨屋盖钢拱架变形及沉降监测项目
[4]华中科技大学喻园小区沉降监测和人防工程深基坑变形监测项目
[5]华中科技大学经管大楼群沉降监测项目
[6]核电站安全壳结构老化评估故障树分析