摘要
随着我国经济社会的发展,自然灾害、工业事故、公共卫生事件等突发性事件对社会造成的影响越来越引起人们的关注。在处置突发事件的过程中,应急物流运行的效能如何,将直接关系到社会的稳定与和谐发展。
合理的应急物资库存和储备是完成应急物流的首要条件。在分析了应急物资库存存在问题的基础上,首先采用模糊聚类的方法对应急物资按照多种不同属性进行聚类,然后根据聚类后的结果进行不同存储策略的选择,之后利用粗糙集理论分析方法产生应急物资库存策略决策知识。在分析应急物资动态属性特点的之后,根据应急物资达到应急目的而产生的时变属性,对样本对象进行分析,建立了应急物资库存策略的不协调决策信息系统,设计了决策知识抽取方法。
在应急物资充分准备的前提下,应急物资发挥效能,实现应急效益是应急物流管理决策者较为关心的内容。在介绍建立应急物资到达救援地仿真模型的现实要求基础上,根据排队论,以应急物资到达事发地或者避难点的时间间隔服从正态分布,应急物资发挥应急效能的时间服从负指数分布分别建立单出救点单应急物资和单出救点多应急物资发挥应急效能模型,对应急物资发挥应急效能的数学概率分布进行了分析说明。之后采用ExtendSim软件对其进行了模拟仿真,并对仿真结果对实际应急物流过程中应急物资发挥应急效能的指导意义进行了说明。在单出救点单应急物资和单出救点多应急物资发挥应急效能模型的基础上,可以较为快捷地建立多出救点单应急物资发挥应急效能模型和多出救点多应急物资发挥应急效能模型。
在应急物流活动中,应急物流保障能力的评价对完成应急物流活动而进行的基础建设和应急物流活动的指挥决策有重要意义。本文提出了应急物流保障能力静态评价模型,该模型以建立保障能力指数为核心,应用层次分析法的分析结果作为权重算子,在希尔伯特空间基础上建立了指标子空间,利用希尔伯特空间上单位球的弱紧性,建立了应急物流保障能力评价模型。该模型具有良好的数据处理功能,包括定性数据和非定性数据,通过指标分析,对评价对象进行横向和纵向的比较,通过指标分析可得到各指标对于总指数的贡献率和总指数的可达性指标。通过一个算例,对应急物流保障能力进行了评价。分析了应急物流动态指标中的共性特点,选取了八项动态指标作为应急物流动态保障能力评价的指标。在确定各项指标后,分别给出了各项指标的数学表达式,在此基础上,建立了应急物流动态保障能力评价模型的表达式。
在前述基础上设计了应急物资库存策略及应急物流保障能力评价信息平台。通过对应急物资储备分类管理策略的实现及应急物流保障能力评价模型的建立,采用计算机技术、数据库技术及网络技术等进行系统设计和集成,设计实现了应急物资分类、存储策略计算机决策支持系统,通过信息平台软件实现应物资发挥应急效能仿真,并在仿真基础上完成对应急物流保障能力的评价,为决策管理者在指挥处置应急物流活动和平时建设应急物流保障方面提供决策支持,提高了应急物流指挥和建设的科学化和信息化水平。
通过多项相关课题、项目验证了论文所涉及的相关技术理论。
With the development of social economy and society, natural disasters, industrial accidents, public health incidents, etc. have influenced the society more and more remarkable. In order to meet requirements of deal with these emergencies, the performance of emergency logistics is crucial and the efficiency of emergency logistics would relate to social stability and harmony.
The inventory and reserve of emergency supplies are prerequisite for fulfilling emergency logistics missions. According to the properties of emergency supplies, this paper carries out the clustering operation to them by fuzzy clustering based on the analysis of the problems existing in the emergency supplies. Then, selecting proper inventory policy based on the results of cluster and using rough set analysis method to formulate emergency materiel inventory policy decision-making rule. Besides, according to analyzing the characteristic of the dynamic properties and the time-varying attribute of emergency supplies, this paper establishes an inconsistent decision system for emergency supplies inventory policies and designs the decision knowledge reduction method.
In the condition of emergency supplies are well prepared, emergency logistics management decision-makers more concerned about the efficiency of emergency supplies. After introduce the significance of simulation model for emergency supplies arrive to rescue sites, based on queuing theory, assumed the time interval of emergency supplies arrive to incident or evacuation point followed normal distribution and the time of the emergency supplies perform their functions followed negative exponential distribution, this paper established the model of single rescue point single-emergency-supply and single rescue point multi-emergency-supplies performing functions. In third part of this paper the mathematic probability distribution of the performance of emergency supplies was analyzed. These models are established by ExtendSim simulation software, and simulated the two models work procedure, at last the analysis of simulation is explained. The model of multi-rescue-point single-emergency-supplies and multi-rescue-point multi-emergency-supplies can establish easily based on these two models.
The evaluation of the emergency logistics support capability in the emergency logistical activities is important to construct emergency logistics infrastructure and the decision-maker to command a specific action. This article proposed the static evaluation model of emergency logistics support capability, which build the support capability index as the core, using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) formulate weight operator of index, establish the Hilbert index space. And use Hilbert space unit weak compactness on the unit ball to set up emergency logistics support capability evaluation model. This model has the good data processing function, including the qualitative data and the non-qualitative data. Through the index analysis, compare the horizontal and vertical to the evaluation of the object; each index can be obtained through the indicators of the contribution to the general index and index accessibility target. Emergency logistics support capability was evaluated by an example. At the end of fourth chapter the emergency logistics common characteristics in dynamic indicators were described. The eight dynamic indicators as the main factor to the evaluation of emergency logistic dynamic support capabilities were put forward. After determining factors, each index mathematical expression was gave respectively. In the inferior foundation, the dynamic support capabilities evaluation model expression established.
An information platform of inventory of emergency supplies and evaluation of emergency logistics support capability is showed in fifth chapter. Combined with computer technology, database technology and network technology the information platform can realize emergency supplies inventory control and simulation of emergency supplies take effect. It can also complete the evaluation of emergency support capabilities based on simulation foundation. These functions improve scientific and normalization of emergency logistics disposal and construction.
Through several relevant projects, the related technical theories involved in this paper were verified.
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