摘要
货币是一个古老又新鲜的话题,不同货币间的竞争过程及其结果形成了国际货币秩序、货币制度甚至货币体系。随着商品经济社会整体实力的提升,各国间贸易的发展壮大,物物交换时期的实物性货币形式,逐渐演变进化为贵金属货币以及后来纸币制度下的信用货币和纸币；由于电子科技的广泛应用,电子货币及虚拟货币也应运而生。最初行使交换媒介功能的货币,从少量使用发展为大量流通,其作用也逐步加强。除降低交易成本外,为达到便利贸易的作用,货币职能丰富为价值尺度、贮藏手段等方面。这一发展趋势不仅存在于一国领土范围之内,随着贸易范围的扩大,国与国之间各类经济交流日益频繁,货币的交易手段、价值储藏等基本职能也突破了国家疆界,各国货币出现了少量的跨境流通,随其规模扩大货币逐步具有了国际购买力,少数货币在此过程中脱颖而出,其辐射力得到空前提升,个别国家甚至放弃本国货币取而代之的是更具影响力和竞争力的强势货币。于是,一部分国家主权货币升级为国际货币,国际货币集团的成员从单一向多样化发展；而其余国家货币则组成了非国际货币集团,其中一些领土货币随竞争力上升而过渡到国际货币。由于国际货币的对外输出数量和规模不断扩大,其发行国不仅可以掌控本国经济发展的方向和速度,同时也影响着国际货币输入国的货币政策或经济活动,甚至具有一定的控制能力。由此,国际货币体系经历了不同阶段的更替,各阶段充满了不同主权国家间的冲突和协调,以及竞争和合作,主权货币间的竞争成为了学术界争论的焦点问题。
哈耶克在其著作《货币的非国家化》中提出货币非国家化的设想,破除政府对货币发行的垄断权。弗里德里希·冯·哈耶克(Friedrich August Von Hayek,1976,1978),罗纳德·沃贝尔(Roland Vaubel,1986),劳伦斯·怀特(Lawrence H. White,1984,1989)与乔治·塞尔林(George Selgin,1988)等经济学家都曾对政府垄断货币发行权表示过怀疑,认为竞争性货币的供应者给市场参与者所提供的货币必须有其独特的货币特征,货币的使用者通常喜欢他们所持有的货币能被广泛接受并且价格稳定。此外,国外学者对于一国货币竞争力提升的成本和收益也进行了系统分析,阐述了货币竞争的影响因素,关于货币竞争的讨论一直持续。
21世纪以来,经济全球化趋势不断加强,各国在实体经济和虚拟经济领域都有了更深层次的发展与合作,各国主权货币势力范围的此消彼长成为热点议题。表面上一国货币当局拥有对其货币发行的垄断和主导权利,由此控制本国经济,但随着各国汇兑管制的放松、资本的自由输出入越加频繁,完全掌控本国经济发展方向和速度成为各国面临的难题,货币竞争的内涵和外延也被赋予新的界定。私人间货币竞争、私人与政府间的竞争已经逐渐被各个货币主权国家之间的竞争所取代,无论是国际货币间的竞争还是与非国际货币间的竞争无疑都是其发行者实力的综合展现。
美国次贷危机爆发后,各国政府采用各种经济政策以达到鼓励出口、防范金融风险、减少储备损失等目的,其中量化宽松政策的实施(主要采用降息、增发国债等方式)直接影响到各国货币价值的稳定,各国主权货币的势力范围(尤其是领先国际货币)在这轮金融危机后产生较大调整,其实力转变的深层次原因以及货币竞争一时又成为了各国货币当局、理论界、实务界等各领域的热点话题。美元、欧元、英镑、日元等国际货币固然成为争论焦点,针对各国量化宽松政策的实施对国际社会经济的影响,以及本国货币影响力是否遭受冲击等问题进行了新的诠释,而人民币国际竞争力和影响力的提升,人民币的区域化和国际化进程是否能够加快,也引起了国际社会和各国货币当局的关注。
本文的研究选取了货币需求这一视角,提出以人民币国际竞争力的理论探讨为落脚点,从国际货币体系的历史演变出发,结合历史主权货币竞争的示例,为我国货币当局针对人民币影响力提升的举措提供有效的理论参考；另一方面,有助于我国政府适时地提出恰当的政策确保人民币区域化到国际化进程的顺利进行,从而促进中国国际政治经济地位的提高,确保人民币以及整个金融体系发挥对经济发展的支持作用。本文沿着历史发展的脉络,具体研究中将历史、现状和推论相结合,理论逻辑演绎和经验检验相结合,将现象、观点归纳并作一般理论抽象,强调理论和历史经验并重,运用经济学、计量学的方法,进行规范分析、理论建模和实证检验。
本文首先界定了研究范畴,即一国货币竞争力的形成是政治、军事、经济、金融、地理和历史事件等多种因素共同作用合力的结果,这也是本文的创新点之一。货币竞争力从广义的角度可以定义为：以货币需求偏好变化为表现,由货币需求动机决定的货币势力范围的辐射力。由于政治、军事、历史事件等因素难以量化,本文只能限于经济和金融层面的探讨,地理因素虽是不可忽视的重要动因之一,却与经济和金融因素的分析方法差异过大,因此本文中涉及政治和地理等因素的分析仅限于定性讨论不作有针对性的定量验证,而将这类因素均归于随机扰动项中。以货币竞争力的狭义概念作为研究前提,即一国货币超出领土货币范畴进行跨境计价结算、交易、贮藏的能力,随着这种能力势力范围的扩张,一国货币从具备区域竞争力逐渐向国际竞争力发展,这也是货币分层现象的体现。本文将货币需求理论作为货币竞争力研究的理论基础,从需求的视角分析了货币竞争的背后推动力,各微观经济主体出于理性选择、降低交易成本、提高持币收益的动机,在不同货币间进行选择。
本文分析了不同层次货币竞争力的形成原因,首先是以拉美国家美元化为代表的国际货币与非国际货币间的竞争,回顾了拉美国家美元化的形成过程,并找出美元化进程中的主要推动力——通货膨胀,但这仅仅是早期美元化的基本特征,随着美元化路径的持续,利用一种被广泛接受、币值稳定、有避险功能的货币来平衡一国经济内部矛盾和外部矛盾,就演变为以资产替代为导火索到完全的货币替代新选择。其次,以美元取代英镑为代表的单一国际货币间的竞争。英镑的兴盛处于金本位时期,其广泛地被他国作为贸易货币、计价货币、储备货币；这样就形成了某种规模效应和网络效应,使英镑处于自然垄断地位,其它货币难以对其构成质的威胁。然而,英帝国丧失其经济霸权、部分殖民地优势、军事力量以及其他国际领先地位等因素共同导致了英镑衰落这个结局的必然性。而美国凭借经济实力后盾,贸易量和贸易模式的改变,美元币值的稳定性,中央银行制度的完备性,在金本位和金汇兑本位时期,扩大了其交易网络；二战后货币制度改革的有利性,金融市场流动性加强,使美元进一步巩固了其领先国际货币的势力范围。再次,以欧元竞争力提升动摇美元霸权地位为代表的单一国际货币与区域货币间的竞争。美元的霸权地位被动摇,美元本位货币制度导致当前全球经济所面临的外部失衡问题,中心国(美国)和外围国都有加强区域或国际协调与合作的内在要求。因此,国际货币体系内部的货币竞争、货币层次都将发生变化,以美元为价值标准、以美元为交易媒介、以美元为贮藏手段的深度和广度都将有所收缩和减弱。在欧元诞生之后,这种趋势有所加强,欧元虽然不能撼动美元领先国际货币的地位,但2002年到2004年间美元对欧元的贬值所导致的各国央行开始大规模改善储备货币的多样化和非美元化。欧盟强大的事实,欧元区国家货币改革的顺利完成,以及欧元进入国际市场成为新的储备和结算货币等因素的存在,形成了美元贬值、国际份额下降的外部动因。
本文在描述领土货币、区域货币、国际货币竞争力的演变历程的基础上,采用计量经济学方法,得到了储备货币竞争力衡量的经济指标构成,即一国产出(一国GDP占世界比率)、贸易模式(以贸易量为权重的汇率变动率)、金融市场发达程度(股票市场资本化程度、债券市场资本化程度、市场流动性)、货币价值信心(货币贬值率、通货膨胀率CPI)、网络外部性(储备货币占全球交易量的比值)等主要经济变量。这也是本文的创新点之二,以上指标仅限于储备货币这一较高层次的货币群,对于其他国际货币和非国际货币的衡量还需进行个案研究。
人民币就是一个特例。在资本项目尚未开放的今天,采用储备货币模型分析人民币竞争力的强弱必然有所偏差,但是探究影响储备货币竞争力的因素可以为人民币竞争力的提升提供相关参考,而且衡量其国际竞争力需要着重分析国内产出、国际贸易、人民币币值信心、交易网络等要素,从外部经济体对人民币的需求的角度出发予以测算。文章最后一部分在阐述人民币竞争力现状的基础上,对比了人民币与周边国家(地区)货币竞争力的强弱,尤其是人民币与日元的竞争与合作,这是本文的创新点之三。日元在金融市场发达程度、广泛接受性和使用惯性上都超过人民币当前水平,一国产出、进出口贸易额、国际流动性、货币价值信心、汇率变动比率等方面人民币后来居上,总的来看,在2005年以后明显超过日本。越来越多的周边国家和地区接受人民币作为计价单位和交易媒介,人民币债券的推出体现了居民和企业的投资性需求,进一步扩大了人民币的势力范围。“需求主导+制度安排”的上升模式使人民币从有限的竞争实力向无限的竞争潜力转化,从区域竞争力向国际竞争力过渡。
Money is an old but a popular topic, the process of competition between different currencies and their results are in the formation of the international monetary order or even system. Along with the overall strength of commodity economy society and trade development and expansion between countries, the currency gradually evolved from the in-kind currency during the barter period into precious metals and credit currency under the system of bank notes; because of the extensive application of electronic technology, electronic money and fictitious money have come into being. As the medium of exchange, the quantity of currency is from a small amount into large numbers in circulation, and its function has gradually strengthened. In addition to reducing transaction costs, the function of money extends to measurement and storage of value in order to facilitate trade. This trend exists not only within the territory of a country, but, with the expansion of the scope of trade, the basic functions of currency break the national boundaries and national currency appears circulating cross borders in a small amount, and has international purchasing power with its scale step by step as well. A few of them stand out in the process, their radiation force unprecedentedly enhances, and some other countries even make a replacement of their own currencies with the more influential and competitive currency. Thus some of the currency upgrades from sovereign to international currency and the international monetary group becomes diversified from a single. As a result, the international monetary system has gone through different stages of changes, which are full of conflicts between various sovereign states and coordination, as well as competition and cooperation. The competition between sovereign currencies becomes the focus of academic debate.
Hayek put forward the idea of non-state money to break the government monopoly on the currency. Friedrich August Von Hayek(1976,1978), Roland Vaubel(1986), Lawrence H. White, (1984,1989), George Selgin(1988) and some other economists have doubted the government monopoly on the currency, suggesting that currency provided by a competitive supplier must have its own unique characteristics, and currency users would like their currency holdings to be widely accepted and its price stable. In addition, foreign scholars also discuss the costs and benefits of enhancing the currency's competitiveness, and elaborate on the impact of factors of currency competition.
Since the 21st century, economic globalization has become more and more strengthened:a faster development and deeper cooperation in the real economy and the fictitious economy have been carried out between countries; an international coordination mechanism has been established in the markets of production, trade and finance; sovereign currency competition has been heating up quietly and the shift in the territorial sphere of currency has become a hot topic. A country's monetary authorities looks like having a monopoly or leading rights on its currency, but with the relaxation of exchange control, the freedom of capital input and output has become increasingly frequent, which makes countries face the problem to completely control over the direction and speed of its economic development, and the connotation and extension of currency competition has also been given a new definition. Currency competition between private individuals and between private individuals and government has gradually been replaced by competition between the various sovereign currencies.
After the U.S. subprime loan crisis, governments adopted different economic policies in order to achieve several goals, such as to encourage exports, to guard against financial risks, and to reduce reserve losses. Especially the implementation of quantitative easing policy (mainly lowering interest rates, increasing treasury bonds, etc.) directly affected the stability of money price, and the sphere of sovereign currency, especially the leading international currency, has been greatly adjusted in this round of crisis.The international currencies such as U.S. dollar, Euro, British pound, Japanese yen become a focus of debate. A new interpretation has been made on account of the impact from implementing quantitative easing policy or its possibility. Moreover, enhancing the competitiveness of Renminbi, upgrading the regionalization and the possibility of speeding up it internationalization have also attracted international monetary authorities' attention.
From the perspective of the demand for money and historical evolution of the international monetary system, this study, based on the theory of international competitiveness of Renminbi and historical examples of sovereign currency competition, proposes some effective theoretical references for China's monetary authorities to raise the RMB influence, which may help our government implement appropriate policy to ensure the a smooth process of RMB's regionalization internationalizationally and RMB's supportive role in the economic development of the entire financial system, and to promote China's international political and economic empowerment. Along the historical development, this article emphasizes both theoretical and historical experiences, uses the methodology of economics and econometrics to carry out the normative analysis, theoretical modeling and empirical testing.
This paper defines the scope of the study firstly. The formation of currency competitiveness is the result of various factors such as political, military, economic, financial, geographical and historical events. From a broad perspective, competitiveness is the performance for changes in preferences of money demand, and the radiation of currency sphere motivated by the money demand. Since the political, military, historical events and other factors are difficult to quantify, this paper can only be limited to the level of economic and financial discussion. With a narrow perspective of competitiveness as the research premise, competitiveness is currency's capacity for cross-border settlement, trading and storage beyond a country's territory. This research analyzes the driving force of competitiveness based on the theory of money demand. The chosen between different currencies is the rational choice for micro-economic agents to reduce transaction costs and improve income for holding money.
This paper analyzes the reasons for the formation of different levels of currency competitiveness. First of all, it discusses the competition between international currency and non-international on behalf of dollarization in Latin American countries. It reviews the formation of dollarization in Latin America to identify main driving force in the process of dollarization - inflation, but this is just the basic feature of early dollarization. Second, as the representative of the competition between single international currency the U.S. dollar replaced sterling. Pound sterling rised in gold standard period, it was widely used by other countries as a trading currency, denominating currency and reserve currency; thus forming a kind of scale and network effects, and then the pound was in a natural monopoly. However, the British Empire lost its economic hegemony, some colonial superiority, military and other international leading positions led to the decline of the pound inevitably. With the backing of the U.S. economic strength, trade volume, the stability of the U.S. dollar, and the completeness of central banking system, US dollars expanded its trading network in the period of the gold standard and gold exchange standard, and strengthened its sphere of influence as the leading international currency after World War II with the reform of the monetary system and benefit of financial market liquidity. However, the dollar hegemony, in the competition between a single international currency and regional currency, has been shaken by the enhancing competitiveness of the euro. The U.S. dollar standard led to the external imbalances of current global economy, so the center (United States) and the peripheral countries are to strengthen international coordination and cooperation. Therefore, the currency competition and levels will change within the international monetary system. Since the birth of the euro, this trend has been strengthened, although it cannot shake the U.S. dollar as leading international currency status. However, a large-scale improvement of central banks diversifying reserve currencies began since the depreciation of dollar against euro between 2002 and 2004. Several factors are the external driving forces of depreciation and the decline of international market share of the dollar, such as the enhancing power of the European Monetary Union, the successful completion of monetary reform among euro-zone countries, and the euro has become the new reserve and settlement currency.
Based on the description of evolution of competitiveness for territory currency, regional currency, and the international currency, this paper, using econometric methods, makes out composition of economic indicators to measure the competitiveness of the reserve currency:a country's output (the ratio of a country's GDP share), trade patterns (the changing of exchang'e rate in trade-weighted), development of financial markets (stock market capitalization, bond market capitalization, market liquidity), the confidence of money (currency depreciation rate, inflation rate), and network externalities (the ratio of reserve currency in total global trade volume).
RMB is a special case. Since the capital account is still closed, it must be bias when using reserve currency model to discuss the competitiveness of RMB, but it can provide reference for enhancing the competitiveness of RMB. We should measure the competitiveness of RMB from the demand deriving from external economies and emphysize the indicators of domestic production, international trade, the RMB confidence, trading network etc. The last part of the article, based on the description of the status of Renminbi competitiveness, compares the yuan with currencies of its neighboring countries (regions), the competition and cooperation between the yuan and the yen in particular. The yen was superior to RMB in several aspects, such as the development of financial markets, widespread acceptance and use of inertia; RMB exceeds after 2005 in the aspects of the import and export volume, international liquidity, the confidence, the RMB exchange rate ratios, etc. More and more neighboring countries and regions accept RMB as a denominated currency and a medium of exchange. The launch of Renminbi bonds reflects the investment motivation of residents and businesses, which further expands the yuan's sphere of influence. The competitiveness of RMB will be raised from regional to international according to "demand-led plus arrangements" mode.
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