摘要
1998年住房改革以来，我国房地产市场经历了高速的发展，这对拉动国民经济增长和提高人民生活水平做出了突出的贡献。然而我国房地产市场发展过程中暴露出来的一系列问题，不仅不利于我国宏观经济的健康平稳发展，而且可能对整个社会的安定和谐产生负面影响。因此，我国房地产市场特别是价格问题一直是社会各界关注的焦点，也是学者们致力研究的重要课题。
在2007年美国次贷危机以来，我国在保持房地产业自身快速稳定增长的同时，积极采取了各种相应措施以应对这场全球性金融危机的冲击。例如我国房地产的深度改革也不断提上日程，政府逐步加强对我国房地产市场的调控，央行逐渐提高银行贷款利率以减少投机性贷款买房，实行一系列限售政策如提高首套和二套房首付款的支付比例等等。这些举措一方面反映了我国对房地产市场的调控逐步加深并趋于多元化，但另一方面也反映出我国房地产市场发展不完善，存在的问题多且复杂，客观上加大了宏观调控的难度且对调控效果提出了更高的要求。因此，研究我国房地产价格变动的特征，探寻影响房价变动的各主要因素，不仅有助于进一步理解我国房地产业乃至整个宏观经济结构的运行规律，而且对于提高我国宏观经济政策对房地产市场的调控效果、保持我国房地产市场持续健康稳定的发展，加快推进社会主义现代化建设具有十分重要的意义。
为了深入研究房地产市场价格的波动特征及其影响因素，本文首先对有关房地产价格变动特征及其影响因素分析的文献进行了回顾和梳理。在已有研究成果的基础上，结合我国房地产业的实际情况，通过综合运用马尔科夫区制转移模型、谱分析、误差修正模型、向量自回归、面板数据模型和离散选择模型等多种且收缩阶段要远快于扩张阶段；相比于GDP增长率周期波动，房屋价格指数具有2个季经济计量模型和时间序列方法，重点对我国房地产价格的变动特征、我国房地产价格的主要影响因素以及货币政策对房地产价格的调控效果三方面问题进行深入研究，以其作为现有研究工作的有益补充，并为我国房地产市场的改革发展提供有用的经验依据和政策建议。
在第3章和第4章中，本文依次采用马尔科夫区制转移模型和谱分析方法对我国房地产价格变动的周期性和非对称性等特征进行了检验和分析。研究发现，近年来我国房地产价格变动过程中存在着7.4个季度和13.3个季度的周期，并且有滞后特征。而从频域序列的角度可以看出，我国房地产价格周期和宏观经济周期不仅仅具有协动性，而且协动性体现在长期及它们的主要周期上。
第5章中，本文运用协整理论和误差修正模型，依次对日本和我国房地产价格的长期和短期影响因素进行了分析。研究的结果表明：长期而言，1994~2010年间我国住房价格与家庭平均可支配收入和实际建筑成本之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，即需求和供给方因素共同影响了我国住房价格的涨跌，我国住房价格的长期收入弹性为0.58，长期建筑成本弹性为0.55。相比而言，日本住宅地价的长期收入弹性更高。短期来看，房地产价格波动的滞后一期序列、实际家庭收入增长以及实际家庭财富等因素对中日两国房地产价格的短期波动具有不同的影响。另外，我国住房价格的波动性比日本1960年以来的任何时期都要高。因此在我国房地产调控政策的制定过程中应尤其注重控制我国住房价格的短期波动风险。
本文第6章就我国货币政策对房地产市场的调控效果进行了系列分析和评价。首先，通过脉冲响应函数，验证了当房地产市场价格上升时，央行能够对此作出正确的反应，即实施从紧的货币政策。但是无论从货币政策对房地产市场的响应还是从货币政策对房地产市场的调控起效两个方面来看，都存在一定的时滞性。其次，利用面板数据模型对我国货币政策对各地区房地产市场的调控效果进行了比较分析，结果表明，我国房地产价格的主要影响因素是人均可支配收入水平和货币政策，二者对于房地产价格的影响是同向且显著的。相比之下，地区人口数目虽然反映了房地产市场的需求群体，但对房地产价格的影响并不显著。另外，本年商品房竣工面积作为表现房地产市场供给状况的因素对房地产的影响也不稳定，这是因为我国居民购买房产考虑更多的是自身的承受能力，而非市场的供求状况。最后，通过二元离散选择模型对货币供应量与金融机构贷款增长率这两个政策工具的调控效果进行了比较。结果表明，紧缩型货币政策能够有效抑制高涨的房地产价格，但不同政策工具的运用对房地产市场调控产生的效果存在显著性差异，具体而言，金融机构各项贷款的调整相对于货币供应量而言，能够直接影响居民的购房需求，起到更好的调控效果。
最后，本文就我国房地产市场的政策调控实践进行了回顾和评价，从财政政策和货币政策两方面对房地产市场的调控实践进行分析，并对房地产市场的调控提出政策建议。尽管我国近年来对房地产市场的调控实践并不十分理想，但货币政策和财政政策作为我国宏观调控的主要经济手段，对我国房地产市场的调控仍然起到了至关重要的作用，有助于为我国房地产的持续健康发展创造良好的经济环境。
尽管本文的研究仅仅考察了影响房地产价格的主要经济因素，对于社会因素等问题并未进行相关讨论，但本文得到的研究结果仍然有助于进一步理解我国房地产市场价格的变动特征及其影响因素，对于正确把握我国房地产市场的运行规律，提高房地产市场的宏观调控效果、促进我国房地产市场的健康平稳发展具有重要的借鉴意义。
Since the housing reform from 1998, China's real estate market has experienced rapiddevelopment, which has made outstanding contributions to stimulate economic growth andimprove people's living standards. However, during the development process ,China's real estatemarket has exposed a series of questions , not only being harmful for the healthy and stabledevelopment of China's macro-economic, but also may having a negative impact on the society’sstability and harmony as a whole. Therefore, China's real estate market, especially the price issuehas been the focus of the community, and also been an important research subject which manyscholars have committed to.
Since the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, China's real estate industry not onlymaintains rapid and stable growth, but also actively adopted various measures to address thisglobal financial crisis. For example, the depth reform of China's real estate has been mentionedon the agenda, the government has gradually strengthened the regulation of China's real estatemarket, and the central bank has gradually raised bank lending rates to reduce the speculativeloans for buying a house, and implemented a series of policies such as increasing restrictions onthe payment percentage of the first set and the second set and so on. On one hand, theseinitiatives reflect that the regulation of China's real estate market has gradually been deepen anddiversified, on the other hand, it reflects China's real estate market is imperfect, which existsmany and complex problems. That’s to say, it increases the difficulty of macro-control and higherregulatory requirements for its effect objectively. Therefore, researching the characteristics ofChina's real estate price movements, exploring the major factors of price changes will not onlyhelp to further understanding of China's real estate and the rule of the whole macro-economicstructure, but also put great significance on improving the effect of our macroeconomic policies on real estate’s market regulation, maintaining the healthy and stable development of China's realestate market, and accelerating the socialist modernization.
In order to study the characteristics of the real estate market price fluctuations and theirimpact factors, this paper reviews the relevant literature firstly. Based on the existing research,combined with the actual situation of China's real estate industry, and through a variety ofeconometric models and time series methods ,such as Markov Regime Switch model, spectrumanalysis, error correction model, VAR, panel data models and discrete choice models, it hasfocused on the changes of characteristics , the main factors of real estate prices and the monetarypolicy effects on the regulation of real estate prices, which hopes to be a useful complement tothe existing research, and provides a useful empirical basis and policy recommendations for thereform and development of China's real estate market.
In Chapter 3 and Chapter 4, with the use of district system Markov models and spectralanalysis, China's real estate prices’features such as its cycle and non-symmetry have been testedand analyzed. It has found that in recent years, during China's real estate price movements, thereare three kinds of cycle: 7.4 quarters and 13.3 quarters respectively, and the contraction phase ismuch faster than the expansion phase; compared with cyclical fluctuations in GDP growth, houseprice index is with the characteristics of two quarters lag. From the perspective of frequencydomain sequence, it can be seen that there are high correlation and co-mobility between the priceof real estate cycles and macroeconomic cycles.
In chapter 5, based on the cointegration theory and eror correction model, this paperanalyses the long-term and short-term factors of Japan and China's real estate prices. It showsthat: in the long term, there is a stable equilibrium among our country's house prices, averageincome and construction costs. That is to say that the factors from both demand side and supplyside influence the change of house prices. The income elasticity of is 0.58 and the constructioncost elasticity is 0.55. In contrast, the income elasticity of Japan’s house prices is higher thanChina’s house prices. In the short term, one-period lag series of house price fluctuation, realgrowth of family income and wealth have different influence on China’s and Japan’s house prices. In addition, the fluctuation of China’s house prices is higher than Japan’s house prices.Therefore, it is strongly suggested that we should pay more attention to the short-term fluctuationrisk in the process of regulating and controlling China’s real estate market.
In chapter 6, based on China's monetary policy, this paper has made a series of analysis andevaluation on the regulation effects of the real estate market. Firstly, with the impulse response toverify the central bank’s response (the implementation of tight monetary policy) to the real estatemarket raising prices. But both from monetary policy’s response to the real estate market andmonetary policy’s effect to the real estate market regulation, there is a certain lag. Secondly, withthe use of panel data models, the effects of China's monetary policy on the regulation of regionalreal estate market have been compared, and the results show that the level of disposable incomeand monetary policy are the main factors affecting real estate prices, both being the samedirection and significant. In contrast, although the number of local population reflects the needsof the real estate market, its effect on the real estate prices is not significant. In addition, thecommercial real estate area of this year as a single of the real estate market supply, its impact onthe real estate is not stable, because our residents to purchase real estate consider more of theirown capacity, rather than the market supply and demand conditions. Finally, the regulationeffects of money supply between financial institutions’growth rate of loans have been compared.The results show that tightened monetary policy can effectively inhibit the rising real estateprices, but the effects of different policy instruments on the real estate market have showedsignificant differences, in particular, the adjustment of financial institutions’loans compared withmoney supply, can impact residents’housing demands directly, and play a better control role.
Finally, this paper have made a review and evaluation based on practices of China's realestate market policy regulation, and have analyzed the regulation of real estate market based onfiscal policy and monetary policy, also providing some policy recommendations on real estatemarket regulation. While in recent years,, the regulation of China's real estate market is not verysatisfied, the monetary and fiscal policies ,as China's main economic macro-control measures,have played a crucial role on the regulation of China's real estate market, continuing to create a favorable economic environment for the sustained and healthy development of China's realestate.
Although this paper only examines the main economic factors impacting real estate prices,not discussed other issues such as social factors, the results obtained from this paper will help tohave a better understanding of the change characteristics and impact factors of China's real estatemarket, and also has an important reference for a correct understanding of China's real estatemarket operation rules, and to improve macro-control effects of the real estate market andpromote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market
引文
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1葛红玲：货币政策对北京房价的影响分析，中央财经大学学报，2008年第7期。
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