摘要
随着人类社会进入21世纪，世界经济格局发生重大变化，私有金融资产和资本商品的数量迅速膨胀，各类国际市场的相互依赖性不断增强；自由企业制度在世界范围内广泛扩散；经济全球化为经济周期在世界范围内传导提供了基础。人们的直观感受是，一方面，一国经济对外部冲击更加敏感，各国经济波动越来越协同一致，经济周期的跨国协动性不断增强，另一方面，经济运行与金融市场和资产价格变化联系密切，金融经济活动在内外部冲击下，通过金融体系的传导，形成持续性的波动和周期性的变化。真实经济周期理论和金融加速器理论为虚拟经济在世界经济周期中的传导机制研究提供了理论和方法论基础。但是理论研究并不能对贸易和金融全球化对世界经济周期协动性的作用究竟是加强还是削弱给出明确答案，因此选择恰当的模型和数据进行相关实证研究，具有十分重要的现实意义。本文立足于世界经济周期理论的基本模型，从虚拟经济发展的独特视角，对相关问题进行了理论和实证研究。
本文共有十章：第一章为导论部分，重点介绍了选题的背景及研究意义，对虚拟资本、虚拟经济和世界经济周期等相关概念进行界定，并给出了本文的结构安排。第二章回顾了与虚拟经济及世界经济周期传导相关的国内外理论和实证研究成果，并做简要评述。第三章在真实经济周期理论的基本模型框架下，加入名义价格刚性和金融加速器的相关假设，建立了虚拟经济条件下世界经济周期传导的分析框架，构建了一个两国标准动态一般均衡模型，并讨论了在不同货币政策条件下的模型模拟结果。第四章至第九章是对所建立分析框架的展开。第四章从全球视角阐述了近几十年来虚拟经济发展状况以及同一时期世界经济周期的演变。第五章、第六章和第七章着眼于世界重要的区域经济组织，分别分析了欧盟、G7和亚洲区域虚拟经济一体化进程，并通过实证分析检验了虚拟经济一体化对该区域经济周期协动性的影响和作用机制。第八章和第九章从国别经济入手，重点分析了美国和中国的虚拟经济发展现状，同时运用面板分析检验了两国虚拟经济国际化程度和世界经济周期协动性的相关关系。第十章对全文基本结论进行总结，并展望未来相关领域研究的发展方向。
本文得出以下基本结论：第一，虚拟经济运行在一定程度上独立于实体经济，并对实体经济波动具有放大效应；第二，金融一体化的类型和一国经济收到冲击的情况是虚拟经济全球化对世界经济周期产生何种影响的决定因素；第三，不同虚拟经济一体化程度的区域经济组织和不同经济发展阶段的国家，虚拟经济与经济周期相关关系和影响程度不同。第四，总的来说，目前欧盟、七国集团和亚洲区域内部金融一体化程度的加强，带动了区域内经济周期协动性不同程度的下降。第五，对美国和中国的实证分析比较显示，与不同经济发展阶段的国家间的金融一体化程度对经济周期协动性的传导机制存在差异。
本文的创新性主要体现在以下方面：第一，本文在已有资本主义经济周期理论的基础上，从虚拟经济发展的视角，考察世界经济周期的新变化的内容、产生原因、及传导机制，在借鉴前人研究的基础上，构建兼容虚拟经济部门和实体经济部门的经济周期模型。第二，在分析视角上，既从全球层面上分析整体世界经济周期的变化趋势，又对区域经济周期、次区域经济周期，以及国别经济与世界经济周期的协动性变化进行了深入分析，从多层面解构虚拟经济发展对世界经济周期变化的传导机制和相关关系。第三，在研究方法上，采用HP-滤波技术对世界30多个主要经济体的多个重要宏观经济变量进行统计分析，并运用面板模型对多个区域经济组织的数百个国家组合时间序列数据进行比较分析。
As human society entered the21st century, the world economy has undergone significant changes. Private financial assets and capital goods have been expanding rapidly; the interdependence of various international markets is continuously enhancing; the free enterprise system spreads globally. Economic globalization provides a basis for international business cycle to spread world-wide. People's intuitive feeling is that, on the one hand, a country's economy is more sensitive to external shocks, economic fluctuations among different countries become more and more related, and the transnational of economic cycle co-movement is increasing. On the other hand, the economic performances are closely linked to changes in financial markets and asset prices. Under internal and external shocks, financial activities showed persistent volatility and cyclical changes. Real Business Cycle Theory and the financial accelerator theory provide a theoretical and methodological basis for the transmission mechanism of the fictitious economy in the world economic cycle research. The nature of world economic cycles has changed over time due to trade and financial globalization. However, economic theory does not provide definitive guidance concerning the impact of increased trade and financial linkages on the co-movement among macroeconomic aggregates across countries. Hence choosing the appropriate model and data to conduct empirical study has important practical significance. Based on the model of the international business cycle theory, this dissertation conducted both theoretical and empirical studies from the perspective of fictitious economy development.
The dissertation contents ten chapters:chapter1is an introduction part, it highlights the background and significance of the topics, defined the concepts, and gives the structural arrangement of the dissertation. Chapter2reviews the domestic and international theoretical and empirical studies in related field. Chapter3builds a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions and rigid nominal price. Alternative monetary policy regimes and parameter values were explored. Chapter4elaborated the development of fictitious economy and the evolution of world economic cycles in recent decades from a global perspective. Chapter5, chapters6 and7focus on the impact of financial integration on the degree of business cycle synchronization in world's major regional economic organizations, namely the EU, the G7and Asia. Chapters8and9, from the aspects of country economy, analyzed the development status of the fictitious economy in the United States and China, as well as using panel data to conduct empirical analysis. Chapter10summarizes the basic conclusions and look to the future direction of the related field study.
The dissertation draws following conclusions:First, the fictitious economy, to a certain extent, is independent to the real economy, and tends to amplify the fluctuation in real economy. Second, financial linkages could result in a higher degree of business cycle co-movement by generating large wealth effects. However, they could decrease the cross-country output correlations as they stimulate specialization of production through the reallocation of capital in a manner that consistent with countries'comparative advantage. Third, fictitious economy shows different impact on economic integration organizations at different stage of financial integration. Forth, generally, the development of fictitious economy in EU, G7and Asia has associated with the decrease in business cycles co-movement. Last but not least, the comparing analysis between the United States and China shows there is different impact on countries at different stage of fictitious economy development.
The innovation of this dissertation is mainly reflected in the following areas: First, on the basis of the existing business cycle theory, from the perspective of fictitious economy, the dissertation elaborated the evolution and affecting factors of world economic cycles. Second, the dissertation carried out in-depth analysis in the perspective of both the global, regional and country level. Third, the dissertation used HP-filter technique for statistical analysis of more than30of the world's major economies, calculated a number of important macroeconomic variables, and used a panel model to analyze and compare the data of more than100country pairs.
引文
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30宋玉华，美国经济本轮周期调整的性质，国际经济评论，2001年9月，50页。
31刘霞，对美国虚拟经济与实体经济的分析与思考，兰州学刊，2010年第1期，64页。
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33张云、刘骏民，经济虚拟化与金融危机、美元危机，世界经济研究，2009年第3期，35页
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