摘要
根据传统的宏观经济理论,一国经济通常会因受到总需求冲击与总供给冲击的影响而呈现出不稳定的状态,为了避免产出、失业以及通货膨胀不必要且无效率波动引发福利损失,理论上通常认为决策者应该使用货币政策和财政政策抹平经济波动。虽然从休谟的文字开始,认为货币变化是中性的单位变化和认为这些变化导致了就业和产出的同方向变化这两种不互相容的观点之间的拉锯战就已经开始,但总体而言,在货币短期非中性上已经基本达成共识,这就为使用货币政策平抑经济周期提供了有效的作用空间。
从我国改革开放以来的宏观经济发展来看,自进行分权化改革起,到双轨制形成,以及后来向市场经济体制的过渡,经济中的总量问题、结构问题和体制问题不断出现,产出增长与通货膨胀都呈现出较大幅度的周期性的波动,宏观经济始终处于一种“冷热交替”的过程中。虽然就整体而言,中国经济的稳定性已经超过了绝大多数国家,但是宏观经济波动还是对我国宏观经济增长造成了相当大的负面影响。与之相对应的是,我国货币政策稳定化作用的效果似乎并不尽如人意。自1977年以来,我国一共出现了五个经济周期,1977-1981年;1982-1986年;1987-1990年;1991-2001年;2002-至今。在前四次经济周期中,有三次稳定化的效应呈现出所谓的“硬着陆”,只有第四次的稳定化作用形成了“软着陆”。而在2002年开始的新一轮经济周期中,尽管2003-2005年出现了历史性“适度高位平稳增长”,但之后宏观经济形势发生变化,中国人民银行先后使用窗口指导、上调金融机构存款准备金、加大公开市场操作力度、差别存款准备金制度以及上调金融机构存贷款利率等从紧货币政策手段,力图弱化经济过热的幅度,防止通货膨胀和金融风险,从而保证经济相对稳定的增长。但从2008年初的宏观经济数据来看,我国整体经济过热的趋势并不没有因货币政策调控而出现转机。正当人们对于货币政策稳定化作用倍加质疑甚至于指责时,席卷全球的次贷危机引发了全球性的经济衰退,从而对我国宏观经济产生了极大的冲击,外部需求明显收缩,部分行业产能过剩,企业生产经营困难,城镇失业人员增多,经济增长下行的压力明显增大。随着宏观经济形势逆转直下,从“过热期”一贯而下,出现经济减速,甚至面临着落入“衰退期”的风险,对货币政策的质疑也出现了戏剧化的逆转,不仅仅实现了从“调控不力”到“调控过度”的转变,而且开始质疑主流宏观经济理论的有效性以及国内主流经济学家对宏观经济形势的误判。
实际上,关于我国货币政策稳定化作用存在着两个重要的问题:第一,我国一直采用的增长主导的相机抉择货币政策是否合理?尽管经过三十多年的高速增长已经成为世界第三大经济体的中国,其货币政策是否应该从增长主导转向稳定主导的问题仍存在着争论,或者换句话说,是否应该采用目前许多国家采用的所谓的通货膨胀目标制度更为合理与有效。但是,有两方面的原因能够证明“现阶段我国并不适合采用通货膨胀目标制度”:其一,如大多数学者指出的,我国目前并不完全具备实施条件,例如,短期无法把价格稳定作为货币政策首要目标、中央银行工具独立性较低以及通货膨胀预测准确性较差等等;其二,无论是明确的抑或是隐含的通货膨胀目标制度,都存在着两个问题,即可能导致较高的产出波动和倾向于忽略其他政策目标(例如,经济增长)。因此,上述问题实际上就演变成了问题二:如果不是我国现有货币政策框架不适用,或者说现阶段我们不能采用稳定主导的货币政策,那么解决我国货币政策稳定化效应备受质疑的方法就是,从理论上找到行动主义的货币政策具有某种程度的合理性,以及是否在稳定化的过程中存在着影响其有效性发挥的特定问题或者制约因素,而这正是本文试图且努力解决的主要问题。
全文除导论外,共分为7章,其主要内容如下:
第1章和第2章中分别从不同的视角描述了货币政策稳定化作用的理论基础和理论分析范式,从而为构建货币政策稳定化作用机制奠定坚实的理论基础。
第1章以“革命和演变”作为主线,从经济周期分析的总体框架入手,在详细地描述了自维持周期模式与冲击-传导范式之间的区别与联系之后,进一步阐述了冲击-传导过程中可能发生的经济周期福利成本,从而提出货币政策稳定化作用的必要性。在此基础上,通过进一步分析货币在“均衡”与“非均衡”经济周期理论中的作用,指出只有在“非均衡”经济周期模型中,货币政策才具有平抑经济周期的效应。
第2章则是以总需求-总供给分析为基础框架,沿着IS-LM模型演进的顺序,描述出不同理论学派对IS-LM模型的分析和拓展,并以此为基础,进一步分析了在不同理论范式中货币政策的稳定化作用机制,从而不仅勾勒出稳定化政策从主流到被摈弃,再到反思和复兴的发展过程,同时也证明了货币政策稳定化作用的可行性。
从第3章开始,利用了三章的篇幅,分别分析了货币政策稳定化作用过程中至关重要的三个问题:目标、传递机制和效应,试图勾勒出较为完整的货币政策稳定化作用框架。
第3章以成本-收益分析为主线,通过阐述通货膨胀福利成本和反通货膨胀的产出损失,提出中央银行在实施货币政策稳定化作用的过程中面临着目标权衡,并在基础上,进一步分析了通货膨胀与产出之间的水平权衡和波动性权衡,从而提出货币政策的最优稳定化目标是使产出-通货膨胀波动性最小化。
由于在货币政策稳定化作用过程中,需要对政策变量变化被传递到经济体的其他部分的速度、规模以及效应大小进行准确地评估和精密地控制,因此明确摩擦对于货币政策传递机制的影响以及这种影响在实现稳定化目标过程中的作用尤为重要。正是基于这一观点,第4章在描述货币政策传递机制基本框架的基础上,通过对两种重要的货币政策传递渠道——利率渠道和信贷渠道——传递效果的分析,指出由于利率不完全传递效应与信贷市场不完全条件下的金融加速器效应的存在,使得货币政策稳定化作用在一定程度上被削弱或者放大,进而加大了中央银行利用货币政策稳定宏观经济的不确定性。
第5章则着眼于效应层面的分析,在分析了货币政策稳定化效应的主要方法和实证证据的基础上,引入预期因素,指出预期对货币政策稳定化效应的影响是至关重要的,最后分析了货币政策稳定化效应的非对称性。
随着经济、金融全球化进程的不断深入,商品、资本以及劳动力的跨国自由流动程度越来越高,一国货币政策稳定化作用机制问题也变得越来越复杂。基于这一观点,第6章在之前三章所构建的货币政策稳定化作用机制的基础上,引入经济开放因素,试图通过对开放经济下货币政策分析范式、稳定化目标权衡乃至汇率传递机制的分析,不仅说明开放经济下货币政策稳定化作用机制更为复杂,而且也使构建的稳定化作用机制更为完善、更为贴近客观实际,从而进一步为我国货币政策稳定化作用机制的评价提供一个合意的分析平台。
综合前面各章的研究,可以清楚地看到所构建的货币政策稳定化作用机制的基本轮廓,第7章正是以此作为分析的基本框架,利用基于动态随机一般均衡模型的政策模拟与控制等计量分析方法,对我国现阶段货币政策稳定化作用机制进行量化评价,试图做出现阶段关于我国最优货币政策的选择。
本文的主要贡献和创新主要表现在以下三个方面:
第一,突破传统的货币政策作用机制研究框架,凸显出稳定化这一现实问题,建立了一个开放的、可持续地进行理论和实证研究的分析框架。在研究中,通过充分占有中外文献资料,将货币政策稳定化目标中的通货膨胀-产出两难选择、货币政策传递过程中因摩擦因素的存在而导致稳定化作用被削弱或者放大、预期对货币政策稳定化效应的影响以及全球化对与稳定化作用的影响等问题引入主流教科书中的货币政策作用机制,构建出基于稳定化的货币政策作用分析基本框架,不仅实现了对传统货币政策作用机制的拓展,而且为客观地、科学地评价我国货币政策稳定化作用提供坚实理论基础。
第二,对货币政策稳定化作用过程进行解构,通过对目标-传递-效应的分析,获得关于影响稳定化政策有效性的重要观点:(1)货币政策的最优稳定化目标是使产出-通货膨胀波动性最小化;(2)利率的粘性传递和金融加速器效应都在不同程度上削弱和放大了政策冲击的传递效果;(3)在提及货币政策稳定化效应时,首先要考虑的就是哪一种类别货币政策的效应,并且无论是系统货币政策还是非系统货币政策,抑或是预期到的货币政策还是未预期到的货币政策,都对产出具有重要的影响。
第三,基于简化的新凯恩斯主义四方程模型对我国现阶段货币政策稳定化作用机制效应进行量化评价,做出现阶段关于我国最优货币政策的选择。
Based on common economy theories, the impact of the aggregate supply and demand always affects a country’s economy stability. To avoid the welfare loss caused by unemployment, inflation and other economic indicators’fluctuation, it is well acknowledged, in theory, that the policy makers should utilize the macro-economic policies, such as monetary policy and fiscal policy, to smooth the cyclical effect of the economic cycle. Since Hume, the debate of whether the change of monetary supply is neutral has already started; however, in the overall views, it is agreed that the change of monetary supply has some impact on the macro-economy in the short run, which lays the foundation of utilizing monetary policy to smooth the economy cycle.
While the author examining the development of macro-economy since the reform and open-up of the China, the total problem, the structural problem and the institutional issues continue existing. The aggregate output and inflation rate greatly and cyclically fluctuated, which depicts the curve with frequent peaks and troughs. In the whole, China’s economy is more stable than most developing countries; however, the frequent macro-economy’s“up and down”has certain negative effects on the economy growth. The author also found that the monetary policy might not help to stabilize the economy cycle as expected. Since 1977, there are five major economy cycles that lies between 1977 and 1981, 1982 and 1986, 1987 and 1990, 1991 and 2001, 2002 and by now. In the first four cycles, the first three turned out to be“hard landings”due to the counter-cyclical policies; only the fourth resulted in“soft landing”. In the latest cycle beginning in 2002, although the historic“moderately stable high growth”appeared between 2003 and 2005, the macro-economy situation greatly changed after 2005, which made the central bank, that is, the People’s Bank of China, utilize the tight monetary policy instruments, such as window guidance, raising and differentiating required deposit reserve ratio, collecting the liquidity through open market operations and raising the saving and lending interest rates, to weaken the expectations of the overheat and to avoid the high inflation and the systematic risk of the financial system. Based on the first quarter macro-economy data of 2008, the overheat trend did not change with the implementation of tight monetary policy. As people suspecting and even criticizing the policy’s effectiveness, the overwhelming global financial crisis led the global economy to a recession, which greatly influenced the economy growth of China. The pressure of the economy’s stable growth has greatly increased with the contraction of foreign demands, the over-supply of certain export-oriented industries and the rising number of unemployed people. As the economy’s growth rate slows down, the suspicion of the monetary policy changes dramatically from the original ineffectiveness to later excessiveness. The studies even question the effectiveness of macro-economy theory and the judgment of the macro economy’s situation made by major economist in China.
In fact, there are two important questions about the stabilization effect of Chinese monetary policy: the first is if the economic growth driven discretionary monetary policy is appropriate. After thirty years of rapid development, China has grown to the third largest economic body. There has always been a dispute about whether monetary policy objective should change from economic growth driven to economic stabilization driven. In other words, if Chinese monetary policy targets to inflation, as many other countries do, will be more reasonable and effective? There are two arguments will prove“the inflation-targeting is inapposite to the present stage of China”: first, as many scholars said, our country does not possess good condition for implementation. For example, price stabilization can’t be the first objective of monetary policy in a short term, the central bank’s instruments are not totally independent, the bad accuracy of inflation forecast, etc; second, definite or implied inflation-targeting may cause high output volatility and ignore other targets(economic growth, for example). So, the upper debates lead to the second question: if Chinese monetary policy is not improper, or says China can’t adapt stabilization driven monetary policy at present stage, then, what is the solution to the problem of the stabilization effect of Chinese monetary policy? Theoretically, prove behavioristic monetary policy has its rationality in some extent. Find the certain problem or restrictive factors which exist in the period of stabilization and influence the effect of stabilization. Those are just what will discussing and solving in this article.
Except for introduction, this article has seven chapters, main contents include:
The chapter 1 and 2, introduces the theoretical foundations and analysis methods of the monetary policy stabilization effect from different viewpoints.
The chapter 1, surrounds“the revolution and the transformation”. Starts with the general framework of business cycle analysis, then gives a detailed description of the relation and difference between the self-maintenance cycle model and impact-conduction model, further discusses the welfare cost exists in the impact-conduction process, leads to the necessity of the stabilization effect of monetary policy. On these bases, further analyses the monetary effects in“equilibrium”and“disequilibrium”business cycle theories, points out that monetary policy has the stabilization effect only in the“disequilibrium”business cycle model.
The chapter 2, bases on the AS-AD model, along with the IS-LM model’s development procedures, summarizes different theory schools’analysis and expansion on the IS-LM model. On these basis, further analysis the stabilization mechanism of monetary policy in different theories, depicts the stabilization policy’s development procedure from well accepted to discarded, from reconsidering to renaissance; proves the feasibility of the stabilization effect of monetary policy.
Three chapters below respectively analyze three critical problem for monetary stabilization policy process : goal, transmission mechanism and effects, which attempt to a complete construct monetary stabilization policy framework.
Chapter three illustrates inflation welfare costs and disinflation output loss on the basis of cost-benefit analysis and argues that the center banks face goal tradeoff dilemma in conducting monetary stabilization policy. It analyzes level tradeoff and volatility tradeoff between inflation and output, further advocates that optimal monetary stabilization policy goal is to minimize the sum of output and inflation volatility.
The velocity, magnitude and effects should be accurately evaluated and precisely controlled in that policy variables variation be transmitted into the economy in conduct of monetary stabilization policy. Thus, friction is very important for study of monetary transmission mechanism influences and effects of conduct of monetary stabilization policy. Based on the viewpoints, Chapter four analyses transmission effects of two important monetary transmission channels, interest rate channel and credit channel. It argues that monetary stabilization policy effect is to some extent weakened or enlarged as a result of incomplete interest rate transmission effects and financial accelerator effects for incomplete credit market and increases uncertainty of stabilizing economy for the central banks in conducting monetary policy.
Chapter 5 mainly devotes to the effects analysis. On the basis of having analyzes the main methods and empirical evidence of the monetary policy stabilized effect, the dissertation introduces the expectation factor, points out expectation is of critical influence to the monetary policy stabilized effect and finally analyzes the asymmetric effect.
With the deepening of the economic and financial globalization process, the free floating degree of goods, capital and labor crossing countries is getting higher and higher and the issue of monetary policy stabilized function mechanism is becoming more and more complicated. Based upon this view, chapter 6 introduces the opening factor in the economy. This chapter analyzes the monetary policy paradigm under the open economy and the stabilized target trade-off and the exchange rate transmission mechanism. It not only shows the monetary policy stabilized function mechanism is getting more and more complicated, but also provides a satisfactory evaluation platform for China’s monetary policy stabilized function mechanism so as to make the stabilized function mechanism more perfect and close to the real world.
All in all, we can see clearly the basic frame of the monetary policy stabilized function mechanism. Using it as an analysis frame, the dissertation employs the policy simulation and control method in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, makes quantitative evaluation on China’s current monetary policy stabilized effect function mechanism. On the basis of all these researches, the author provides suggestions for the current choice of the most optimum monetary policy and then makes predictions in its future development.
The main contribution and innovation of this paper performs in the following three aspects:
First, breaks through the traditional research framework of monetary policy mechanism, highlights the realistic issue of stabilization, and establishes an open, sustainable and analytical framework for theoretical and empirical research. In the study, through the full possession of foreign literature, such issues as have been introduced mechanism of monetary policy in mainstream textbooks: the dilemma of inflation - output trade-off in the target of monetary stabilization policy; due to the presence of friction factors, the stabilization being weakened or enlarged during the monetary policy transmission process; influences by expects in the currency stabilization policy, as well as the effects of globalization on the stabilization effect, all above has built a basic analysis framework based on stabilization of monetary policy, which is not only an expansion of the traditional mechanism of monetary policy, but also provides theoretical basis an objective for scientific evaluation of the monetary stabilization policy.
Second, deconstructs the process of monetary policy stabilization, through analysis on the target -transmission– effect, acquaints important points about the effectiveness of stabilization policies such as: (1) the optimal objective of monetary policy stabilization is to minimize the output - inflation volability; (2) the viscous transfer of rates and financial accelerator effects in varying degrees, weaken and enlarge the impact of the policy transfer effects; (3) referring to the effects of monetary stabilization policy, the first to consider what category the effects of monetary policy is, whether the systematic or non-systematic monetary policy, or it is the monetary policy to be expected or not is expected, all put important impacts on output.
Third, based on the expansion of the four equation of New Keynesian model, puts quantify evaluation on the effect for mechanism of the monetary stabilization policy of China, attempts to make the choice of optimal monetary policy at this stage.
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