摘要
工程变形监测是一项非常复杂的工作,而需要结合某些专业学科如工程测量、地质、水文等才能恰当的解释及对变形原因具有正确的结论。它在工程建设及保障人民生命财产安全方面具有很大的意义。对测量角度而言,工程变形监测是一项具有较高精度的要求,因此从网设计、设备的选择、监测的方法、监测数据的处理与分析等不能忽略哪各个阶段,尤其是监测网的数据处理与分析造成变形的原因。在世界上二十年来,虽然变形监测的理论和方法现在已经非常丰富、多样,但是随着科学技术的发展,研究变形监测及其完善该工作还不能停止,以至于它在实际上能简单、广泛和正确运用。
如今在越南,工程变形监测工作实际上在各生产单位还没恰当重视该工作,体现在于评价和估计工程的稳定性、分析各造成变形原因,数据处理的程度不太严密,很穷的预测理论,因此,在变形监测的分析结果中都没有对工程在未来的运动趋势作预测。
为了系统及完整该工作并给越南的工程测量者带来帮助、介绍目前在中国和世界上正在使用的工程测量方面的某些较先进的知识、并且如何把它们应用在越南的大型工程情况,就是本论文研究的重点所在。
本论文围绕变形监测工作的各个阶段展开,研究成果和具体内容包括：
(1)研究变形监测网方案设计,详细阐述监测网点的布设、设计、精度要求及监测频率如何确定等。其中针对监测网优化设计的研究,为了使优化计算速度在编程中更快,提供与运用一种较简单的序贯公式。
(2)研究观测数据预处理及数据处理的问题,支持选择现代数据处理的各方法,提供一种计算伪逆阵的公式,运用较简单及方便在自由网平差和拟稳平差,尤其是该公式能灵活的连接自由网平差和拟稳平差。首先集中解决监测数据预处理的问题,根据观测数据可靠性的概念,研究Baarda方法和稳健估计法对监测数据发现、定位及剔除粗差。选择稳健估计法用于编程过程中,因为这种方法不但同时会发现、定位和定值多粗差值,而计算顺利及简单与方便。接着解决变形监测网数据处理、基准点稳定性分析的内容,依据可靠的数据进行网平差,为了确定网点稳定性,研究某些常用的方法；同时提出一种方法能简单结合自由网平差、拟稳平差对网点稳定性检验,并且计算网点位移量,通过算例证明方法的有用性。
(3)研究变形分析与预报模型的某些动态方法,如时间序列分析法、灰色系统分析法与Kalman滤波,各该方法均具有比较好的精度,能表达变形体的变形和运动趋势,而且这三个方法容易接触、解释及其编程。但是,这些方法的理论及其应用于变形监测方面对越南测量者而言都是新的知识,因为,越南测量界中从来还没有哪一个测量者研究过这种方法,只听过在世界上有时间序列分析法和Kalman滤波法,尤其是灰色系统分析法更不知道。因此,在论文中研究它们基本的原理、建模过程及其在变形监测中的应用。
(4)最后,综合上面阐述的知识,自己研制一套数据处理的软件能够解决大多数变形监测的各个问题,特别是数据预处理、数据处理、分析与预报的领域,结合一个越南水电工程当实例应用以计算与分析,从而提出合理的结论。
本论文对越南测量界具有如下贡献：
(1)系统完整地研究并论述了工程建筑物变形监测、分析和预报的全过程；
(2)提供并研究了粗差检验的个别理论和方法,如Baarda理论、稳健估计方法等；
(3)提供并研究了关于基准网点稳定性分析的个别理论和方法,如平均间隙法、组合后验方差法及稳健迭代权法等；
(4)提供并研究了关于变形预测的个别理论和方法,如时间序列分析、灰色系统分析和Kalman滤波等；
(5)独立研制了一套适合越南应用的工程测量数据处理软件。
我肯定在越南工程测量界,对各上述的知识还没有学者提起到或研究过。
论文的创新主要有以下四点：
(1)提供了基于序贯公式的网优化设计和网平差方法并给出了应用；
(2)提供了一种伪逆阵计算公式,应用在自由网平差和拟稳平差中较为方便；
(3)提出了一种进行基准点稳定性检验和计算位移量的方法；
(4)独立研制了一套“工程测量数据处理软件”。
Deformation Monitoring project is a complex project which need to incorporate some science subjects such as engineering survey, geology, hydrology in order to satisfactorily explain and correctly draw the conclusions about the cause distortion. Deformation monitoring is of great significance in the construction and help to ensure the safety of property and human lives. From the perspective of surveying, not only this work requires accuracy, but the process is complex and tight. Thus from net design step, to selection of equipment for measuring, monitoring methods, processing and analyzing monitoring data, none of the steps can not be overlooked and omitted. Among them, the most important is the processing, distribution of monitoring system performance data from to interpret reasonable cause to create distortion. In the last twenty years all over the world, although the theory and methods of monitoring deformation was extremely rich and diverse, together with the development of science and technology, deformation monitoring research is more and more complete, the primary purpose of which is to make the technique popular and widely used due to its simplicity but still accurate and reliable.
Currently, in the construction units, production in Vietnam, the deformation monitoring works in practice is not considered in a proper way, which can be shown in the estimate and evaluation stability of the work, analyzing the causes creating distortion, level of data processing... all is not really tight. In addition, the theory predicts backward deformation is poor, therefore, the analysis results of deformation can not forecast the trend of the movement in future works.
To complete the system and the observation of the deformation, which can help to do surveying work in Vietnam, the thesis introduces some new knowledge about the deformation, which is observed to have been widely applied in China and around the world. Also how to use this knowledge in the application works great in Vietnam in the future, which is the most important content that dissertation.
Thesis revolves around the stage to perform monitoring of the deformation work, the specific content and research results include:
1) To study the control network for monitoring deformation, to present specific methods of monitoring system layout, control network, determine the required accuracy and frequency of monitoring; focus being designing optimal design for monitoring network. To speed up calculations when designing optimized, providing a sequential formula have relatively good performance that is simple to apply.
2) To study pre-processing and monitoring data processing, trying to apply the methods for advanced and modern data processing. To provide a pseudo-inverse matrix, convenient to use for free network adjustment and quasi-stable adjustment-this special formula can incorporate flexible adjustment of the two methods mentioned above. First focus on solving the problem of data preprocessing based on the concept of monitoring data reliability, Baarda research methods and estimation methods and robust statistics to detect, the locate and remove gross error (if any) in the range of initial data. Thereby to select method for estimating solid programming process, because this method not only can simultaneously detect, locate and determine the gross error, but also offer simple formula which is very convenient in programming. Next purpose is to study deformation monitoring, the stability analysis of network points. This is done based on past data preprocessing, then proceed to adjustment of the network; to determine the stability of the network point, a number of research methods commonly used in China, along with proposed a method of combining free network adjustment, fine adjustment of thinking through the stability testing network point, the result is a shifting of the network points; through specific examples demonstrating the usefulness of the measures.
3) To study some methods of analysis and forecasting models as methods of deformation analysis in the time series analysis, gray system analysis and Kalman filtering. These methods are relatively of high accuracy, can describe the trend of deformation and movement of the deformable body. These three methods are also more accessible for interpretation and programming. However, theory and applications of these methods in deformation monitoring for surveyor employees in Vietnam are considered new knowledge. Because in survey industry in Vietnam, there hasn't been such a research about this method, there were only anecdotes about time series analysis and Kalman, and gray system analysis is even less known. Therefore, the thesis studies the basic principles, the process of modeling and monitoring applications in deformation of the three methods above.
4) Finally, summing the above knowledge, collaborative research and data processing software capable of solving the problem of deformation observations, paying special attention to the areas of data preprocessing, data processing, analysis and forecasting. Combined with a practical hydro electricity project in Vietnam as an example application to calculate and analyze, from which it made the logical conclusion.
For surveyors in Vietnam, the thesis has some new findings as follows:
1) To study and systemize Deformation Analytics and Forecasting works;
2) To study and provide some special forms of the theory and gross error testing methods such as Baarda theory, robust statistics.
3) To study and provide some special form of the theory and analytical methods for stability of datum points such as Hannover-method, variance of unit weight combination, Weight-selected iteration method.
4) To study and provide some special form of the theory and forecasting methods such as deformation time series analysis, the gray system analysis and filtering Kalman.
5) To independently research the programming software for data processing surveying work appropriate for application in Vietnam.
The author confirs among Vietnamese surveyors no one has studied or addressed the above new findings.
A newness of the thesis focused on four main points:
1) Provide a sequential formular for appropriate computation in network design and free network adjustment;
2) Provide a pseudo-inverse formula applicable in free network adjustment and quasi-stable adjustment which is relatively simple and convenient;
3) Propose a method which combines testing and computing the stability of datum points;
4) Independently research and programme a software for data processing geodetic works.
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