摘要
能源短缺与环境污染已经成为制约中国社会经济发展的两大瓶颈,其解决之道在于出台各种相关的能源环境政策来促进节能减排。因此,结合中国当前社会经济的现状,探讨可供选择的能源环境政策,并量化分析其可能带来节能减排效果和宏观经济影响就具有非常重要的理论意义和现实指导意义。
鉴于可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium Model,CGE)在政策模拟上的强大功能,本文将在分析中国能源环境现状以及清洁发展机制(Clean Development Mechanism,CDM)为中国节能减排事业带来的机遇的基础上,详细对比发达国家的能源环境政策,寻求可借鉴之处,进而构建中国的能源环境CGE模型,并用以量化分析相关能源环境政策(例如征收资源税、减少高能耗高污染行业出口退税以及发展CDM项目)的节能减排效果及其宏观经济影响,而后提出相应的政策建议,为中国实现“十一五”规划的节能减排目标提供决策参考。
本文的主要贡献体现在以下几点:
第一,构建了中国的能源环境SAM,详细划分能源部门,并在SAM中引入环境反馈因素,从而能够更加全面地反映能源-经济-环境三者的相互关系,可作为构建CGE模型的数据基础,或直接用于乘数分析。
第二,通过横向国际比较和纵向历史分析相结合的方法,深入剖析发达国家工业化过程以来能源环境政策的演变及其主要能源环境措施,为中国出台相关能源环境政策提供国际经验借鉴。
第三,有效地将中国宏观经济运行的各种特征以及能源环境特征融入CGE模型中,构建一个符合中国实际情况的能源环境CGE模型。该模型可对中国的各种能源环境政策进行评价。
第四,首次从项目层次上对中国发展CDM项目进行量化分析,评估其对中国节能减排的贡献,以及它将造成的宏观经济影响。
Nowadays, energy shortage and environmental pollution have become the bottlenecks restricting the development of China's society and economic. Issuing relevant energy-environment policies to promote energy conservation and emission reduction will be the right way to settle this problem. So, probing into desirable energy-environment policies based on China's current situation of society and economic, and then evaluating quantitively the performance of these policies on energy conservation and emission reduction, as well as the impacts of these policies on macro-economic will do great theoretical and practical contributions.
Due to the powerful functions of computable general equilibrium model (CGE) in policy simulations, this paper constructs an enengy-environment CGE model of China, and then uses it in simulating the performance on enengy conservation and emission reduction as well as the impacts on macro-economic of relevant policies (such as taxing advalorem resource tax, reducing export tax rebates of energy-intensive and pollution-intensive industries, and developing CDM projects), based on careful analyse on current situation of enengy and environment in China, the contribution of cleaning development mechanism (CDM) projects on China's energy conservation and pollution reduction and detailed comparision of industrialized contries's energy-environment policies. After the simulation, this paper proposes some suggestions on how to achieve the goal of enengy conservation and emission reduction in the Eleventh Five-year Plan of China.
The main constributions of this paper can be concluded as follow
Firstly, this paper constructs the energy-environment social accounting matrix (SAM) by detailly subdividing of energy sector and including environmental feedback. This energy-environment SAM can roundly reflect the relationship among energy, economic and environment. It can be used as the data base for CGE modeling or be used directly in multiplier analysis.
Secondly, this paper deeply discusses the evolution of enengy-environment policies and main enengy-environment measures of developed contries from the beginning of their industrialization using the method of international comparision and historical comparison. This will provide rich practical references for China to issue relevant enengy-environment policies.
Thirdly, this paper constructs an energy-environment CGE model which includes vavious features of China's macro-economic and involves energy-environment feedback. This CGE model can be used for evaluating various energy-environment policies in China.
Fourthly, this paper evaluates the performance on energy conservation and emission reduction as well as the impacts on macro-economic of developing CDM projects from projects level in China for the first time.
引文
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