摘要
供应链是现代经济系统实现社会化分工与合作的主要模式。在供应链系统中,多级企业分工合作,共同完成一种(类)产品的生产和营销过程,构成了供应链上复杂的合作关系和运营过程。由于厂商所处的内外部环境的复杂性,供应链系统中表现出合作、竞争、冲突甚至溃散等各种状态,供应链系统长期稳定合作、共赢的目标几乎无法达成,系统整体总是存在不同方向的演化趋势和动机。
本文从系统论的视角,立足于供应链系统中的流过程,对供应链系统的运行过程进行了深入分析和研究,讨论了影响供应链系统中厂商状态和系统状态变化的关键因素以及影响供应链系统整体稳定性的动力学机制,提出了基于“厂商势”理论的供应链演化机制。本文指出,在供应链系统中,成员厂商的能力因素、信息机制以及契约环境共同决定了厂商的势水平,供应链链上不同企业的厂商势的差异是企业的主要演化动因,并构成整个供应链系统的演化动因,系统演化的方向将趋向于系统中处于不同分工位置的厂商的势水平趋于一致。本文分析了供应链系统中的厂商个体演化路径中的稳态点的存在性,指出供应链系统在不同情况下均可以获得某种形式的稳态点,证明了供应链系统在流平衡的状态下能够达成稳定状态。针对供应链系统的整体演化行为的特点,本文指出系统中“流”的规模影响供应链系统的存量规模,不管是单个厂商的流量规模,还是系统整体的流量规模,都与厂商或供应链系统本身存量规模存在着某种幂率关系。供应链系统中流的变化和规模的变化之间彼此互相影响,而稳定态就是要处于两者(或并不限于两者)之间的最佳适应区间。对于供应链管理实践来说,维持一个稳定的供应链系统的前提,就是能够获得系统内的各厂商自身的势水平的相对均衡,也就是要求处于不同分工阶段厂商能够获得与其自身规模相匹配的流量(如资金流、物流等),而供应链系统整体规模就是系统中所蕴含的价值流规模的函数。
论文内容分为8章。第一章介绍论文的研究背景、文献综述和技术路线;第二章针对论文采用的分析范式、相关概念和术语进行了解释和说明;第三章确立论文的基本分析框架,总体确定了论文研究的方向和内容;第四章提出了供应链系统演化的基本动力机制——厂商势理论,建立了供应链系统中厂商势的基本模型;第五章分析了供应链系统中演化过程的稳定态存在的可能性,并分析了系统演化中几种稳定态的存在情况。第六章和第七章分别讨论了供应链系统演化的基本特征,第六章利用网络演化模型分析了供应链系统中厂商个体连接度的演化问题,第七章则从实证的角度分析了系统流量的规模边界问题;第八章简单分析了资本因素和风险问题对供应链系统演化产生的影响,并对供应链系统的演化过程进行了修订。
本文的创新点主要包括以下几个方面:
1.提出了系统视角下的供应链研究范式。传统的研究供应链的视角更多地集中于供应链过程中的某一片段,而没有着眼于供应链系统的整体。本研究从流的角度,将供应链过程纳入到一个统一的“流”的框架内,实现了供应链过程的有效整合,不同的运作过程统一于某种共同的流的形式之内,便于构建统一的描述模型。
2.提出了基于供应链系统的厂商势理论。厂商势是对供应链系统中厂商的不同能力、处于不同的位置和面临不同契约环境的厂商运作框架环境的综合表征指数,能够体现了厂商出于供应链过程中相对位置和演化方向。供应链上不同厂商间的势的不平衡是导致供应链系统演化的主要动因,而且理论分析表明,存在某种演化过程的平衡态,即供应链系统达成某种长期合作是可能的。
3.基于供应链系统的网络化拓扑结构,本文研究了供应链网络结构中无标度特性。供应链网络中企业节点之间的连接关系符合无标度网络的特征,节点连接度概率分布的幂指数小于2并且与系统内企业节点的变化有关。基于供应链网络中的无标度特征,本文提出了价值束理论,供应链系统就是一个价值束,体现了价值的集成和传递中的核心厂商和非核心厂商的相对关系和价值分布。在价值束中,具有最大连接度的企业节点,是网络中的核心厂商,控制着整个供应链系统中价值流的规模水平。
4.建立了供应链系统组织边界的决定模型。通过实证研究,本文对供应链中企业的边界从流量和存量的角度进行了分析,指出供应链系统同样存在系统的合理边界,这个合理边界是由系统的流量因素所决定的;而且根据行业不同,供应链上的存量因素与流量因素之间都存在某种特定的幂率关系。
本文的创新点在于从系统论的视角对供应链进行了重新审视,以贯穿系统的“流”为工具,以厂商势为基础,对供应链中各级企业主体进行综合分析,对供应链系统的演化行为和演化过程进行了研究,解释了供应链系统演化的机理和演化的基本路径。本文的研究结论表明,供应链系统演化行为是系统内各级企业主体“获得竞争优势”必要过程,是厂商竞争合作的表现形式。供应链系统本身在一定程度上决定于系统中的流量,作为供应链上的企业,如何获得供应链系统中最佳的分工位置,须结合自身“势”进行选择,无法获得维持自身规模的流量,是导致厂商演化行为的基本动力,也是供应链系统无法达到稳定的本质原因。这对企业认识供应链中的合作、修订其供应链战略具有指导意义。
Supply chain is the main mode implementing the social division of labour and achieving cooperation between firms within the modern economic systems. In supply chain system, the multistage enterprises completes jointly a production and marketing process by well-organized division and cooperation, and builds the complex cooperation relations and various operation conditions within supply chain.
During supply chain operation processes, cooperation and competition, conflict, even breakdown caused by the complexity of inner and outer environment environments takes place usually, so long-term win-win cooperation in the supply chain system can be hardly achieved, and the system always presents some evolution trends and the motives to different directions.
From the perspective of system theory, this dissertation analysis and researches the operation process thoroughly based on the flow process of supply chain system, and discusses the key factors impacting the firms’and system’s status changes within supply chain system and the dynamics mechanism controlling the stability of the whole supply chain system, then puts forward the evolution mechanism based on the theory of the Firm Position Potential in supply chain. This dissertation points out that, in the supply chain system, the FPP (Firm Position Potential) levels of members would be determined by the factors of ability, information mechanism and contract environment together. And the unbalanced FPP between enterprises in supply chain eventually leads to an evolution behavior, and accumulates to become the main factors driving the system evolving, and the trend of evolution will causes the FPP of different agent in supply chain to converge on a narrow interval. This dissertation analyzes further the probability of existence of the steady-state points on evolution path of the firms in supply chain and points out that the supply chain system at different conditions can acquire some steady-state point, that is, supply chain system can reach a stable state under the conditions of balance flow. According to the entirety evolutional behavior of supply chain system, this dissertation also presents that it is flows scale that directly affects the organizational stock scale of supply chain system. To any single firm in supply chain, as well as the whole of system, there is some power laws distribution between the flow and the stock. That is to say, in supply chain system, the changes of flow and stock size interact and influence between each other, and to get a stable state means to arrive at the best matching interval for the flow and stock (not limited these two parameters). For the operation practice of supply chain management, the elementary and important measure for obtain stable state is to maintain a relative equilibrium of FPP of firms in supply chain, which requests that the firms at different stage in supply chain could receive enough flows (cash flow, logistics, etc.) to match their organization scales.
This dissertation is divided into 8 chapters. The first chapter presents research background, literature review and technology mapping. The second chapter illustrates analytical paradigm, the related concepts and terms. The third chapter establishes the basic framework of analysis, and determines the research direction and main content. The fourth chapter put forward the basic motive mechanism of the supply chain system evolution by FPP theory, and builds a simple model for FPP of supply chain system. The fifth chapter analyzes the probability for attaining a stable state during evolutionary process for supply chain system, and analyzes several situations of stable state for the system’s evolution. The sixth chapter and seventh chapter discuss main characters of the supply chain system evolution. The sixth chapter describes the distribution law of firms’node linking degree by using the network evolution models in supply chain, and the seventh chapter analyses the flow’s boundary problem of system scale from an empirical perspectives; Chapter 8 analysis simply influences on supply chain system evolution resulted from the capital operation and risk controlling, and revises the evolution process of supply chain system.
The following are the main innovation points of this dissertation:
1. Creating the paradigm from systematic views on supply chain researching in this dissertation. The traditional perspective study focused usually on a certain segment of a supply chain, and did not aim to the complete system of supply chain. This study, from a view of flow, put all supply chain processes into a unified framework of flow, and realizes the effective integration of the supply chain process, with different operation unifying in some common styles of flow and facilitating to build a unified description model.
2. Building the Firms Position Potential (FPP) theory of supply chain system. FPP is a synthetical index calculated from capability, division of labors in supply chain and contracts environments of respective firms in supply chain, which reflects relative positions and evolution direction of firms in system. In supply chain system, it is the disequilibrium of FPP among the different agents that cause the firm’s evolution behaviors, and there is a certain evolutional equilibrium points existing in evolution processes from the theoretical analysis, that is to say, it is impossible to gain the long-term cooperation for the supply chain system.
3. This dissertation analyzes scale-free characteristics in supply chain network structure based on supply chain system network topology structure. The probability distribution of enterprise node linking degree follows some characters of scale-free with power laws index less than or equal to 2, which also would be affected by the changes of nodes in supply chain. And this dissertation creates a theory of value sheaf that takes the supply networks as a value sheaf which describes the relative relationships and value distribution in the process of value integration and transferring among the core and non-core agents of supply chain. In value sheaf, the agents with maximum (and the second maximum) linking degrees is the core enterprises, which determines the levels of value chain of whole network.
4. Constructing a model determining the system stock/flow boundary of supply chain system. This study analyzes organization boundary problems of single agent and system from a perspective of flow and stock and figures out that a reasonable organization scale should be adapted by the supply chain system, in which the optimal stock levels would be adjusted by the flows size, between which the relationships meet scale-free character with a certain power index in accordance with it’s industry of the firms.
Innovation of this dissertation is to rebuild an analytical framework from perspective of system theory, and then synthetically analyzes the multistage agents in supply chain by the tools of flow analysis and regarding the FPP as the start of analysis process, studies the evolution behaviors of supply chain system and explains the mechanism and path of supply chain system’s evolution. The conclusion of the study points out that it is necessary of evolution behavior of supply chain system for agents in it to attain some competitive advantage, which is some manifestation to show the competition and cooperation between firms. Since the scale of supply chain system will be constrainted by the value flow, as an enterprise in supply chain, how to achieve a profitable division of labor in system means to select its position matching their FPPs. And Unable to get maintaining themselves scale of flow is the primary motive causing firms’evolution, but also is the essential reason for supply chain system not to achieve the stable state,which is helpful for enterprises to recognize the cooperation within supply chain system and modify the supply chain strategies.
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