摘要
长期以来,能源型城市和地区为我国国民经济的发展和建设做出了巨大的贡献,但在经济体制转轨和市场经济改革等新的时代背景下,能源型地区的经济开始逐渐暴露出很多弊端与问题。如何在新的经济形势下合理地利用好能源型地区的资源优势,使能源开发能够有效地带动其区域经济的快速、协调和持续发展而避免其落入资源优势陷阱,成为摆在我们面前一个亟待解决的课题。学术界对于能源型地区经济的可持续发展问题研究还处于探索阶段,很多理论与现实问题尚待解决。本文针对现有研究中存在的不足及我国能源型地区在经济发展中所面临的实际问题,以内生增长理论为理论基础,理论与实证相结合地探讨了能源开发对能源型地区经济增长所可能产生的影响及其作用机制,为能源型地区经济的可持续发展提供一定的理论支持和现实指导。
本文首先从技术外生条件下的国家层面经典荷兰病模型入手,分析了资源转移效应和支出效应所引起的去工业化效应的作用机制,在此基础上将边干边学的内生增长机制引入荷兰病模型,在国家层面和单一劳动力生产要素条件下讨论了能源开发活动对制造业技术进步及整体经济效率所产生的影响,再结合我国能源型地区的现实情况,建立了国内区域层面的荷兰病数理模型,借此来阐明能源开发活动可能通过去工业化效应影响能源型地区经济增长的作用机制。
在人力资本与区域经济发展关系相关理论的基础上,本文提出了一个基于人力资本积累的区域经济良性运行机制,分析了政府在引导和推进这一机制形成过程中所发挥的重要作用,进而讨论了能源开发活动对这种区域经济良性循环可能带来的风险。并在此基础上,构建了一个能源型地区的三部门人力资本内生增长模型,分别在分散市场竞争条件和社会计划条件下对模型进行了动态均衡分析,描述了能源开发活动对能源型地区人力资本积累与区域经济增长可能产生的各种影响及其作用机制。
在分析技术创新的涵义及其对区域经济发展的作用基础上,本文从结构、功能、认知和文化等方面探讨了能源型产业集群在技术创新行为上所具有的特点及其对区域经济发展绩效可能产生的影响,并基于Romer的内生技术变化思想和模型,构建了一个能源型地区的四部门R&D内生增长模型,通过模型的市场竞争动态均衡分析及稳态解的比较静态分析,对能源型地区的能源开发活动、技术创新行为和区域经济增长之间的内在联系进行了理论阐释,并讨论了能源型地区可能发生或避免资源诅咒效应的条件和作用机制。
在实证研究方面,本文主要以我国西部地区的省际层面面板数据为研究样本,利用计量经济学的相关理论与方法,对理论研究部分得到的主要理论命题进行了实证检验和分析,在引入市场化程度作为主要控制变量的条件下,分别考察了能源开发活动对能源型地区的制造业发展、人力资本积累和技术创新活动等经济增长因素所产生的影响。最后,对上世纪90年代以来西部地区的能源开发与经济增长之间的作用关系进行了考察,对比分析了西部大开发战略实施前后二者关系的动态变化以及产生变化的原因,并进一步对引起西部地区出现资源诅咒效应的传导途径进行了定量分析。
Energy-oriented cities and regions have always hugely contributed to China’s economic development and construction. However, many disadvantages and problems have turned up in the economic development of energy-oriented regions under the new-times background of economic system transformation and market economy reform. In new economic situations, it’s a problem urgently solved how to exert rationally resource advantage of energy-oriented regions, and effectively drive rapid, harmonious, and sustainable development in order to avoid falling into a resource advantage trap by energy exploitation in energy-oriented regions. The study on economic sustainable development of energy-oriented regions in academic circles is still in an exploring stage, and some theoretical and practical problems still remain to be solved. Aimed at the weakness in existing researches and realistic problems, this paper theoretically and empirically discussed the effects and its action mechanism of energy exploitation on economic growth of energy-oriented regions based on endogenous growth theory in order to provide some theoretical support and practical guidance to economic sustainable development of energy-oriented regions.
Based on country-level classical Dutch model with exogenous technology, the paper analyzed the action mechanism of de-industrialization resulted from resource movement and spending effect. And by introducing endogenous growth mechanism with learning by doing into Dutch model, it discussed effects of energy exploitation on manufacturing’s technical progress and total factor productivity in the country-level and with single labor production factor. According to the actual situations of China’s energy-oriented regions, the paper constructed a domestic region-level mathematical Dutch model to illustrate effect mechanism of energy exploitation on economic growth potentially through de-industrialization in energy-oriented regions.
Based on the relative theory of the relationship between human capital and regional economic development, the paper proposed a virtuous operation mechanism of regional economy based on human capital accumulation, and analyzed important role of government in inducing and impulsing the mechanism, furthermore discussed the risk of energy development to the virtuous cycle. The paper also constructed an three-sector endogenous economic growth model of energy-based regions based on the conceptual frame of human capital accumulation above, and described potential effects and its action mechanism of energy exploitation on human capital accumulation and regional economic growth in energy-oriented regions through dynamic equilibrium analysis respectively under the condition of decentralized market competition and social planner.
Based on the analysis of implication and role of technological innovation in regional economic development, the paper discussed the characteristic of energy industrial cluster in technological innovation and its potential effects on regional economic development performance from structure, function, cognition, and culture. And based on Romer’s idea and model of endogenous technological change, it established a four-sector endogenous growth model of energy-oriented regions, and put forward the theoretic interpretation on the intrinsic relationship among energy exploitation, regional technological innovation and economic growth, and discussed the condition and mechanism on the respective likelihood of resource curse’s appearance and elusion in energy-oriented regions through model’s market competition dynamic equilibrium analysis and comparative static analysis.
In the empirical research, the paper carried out an econometric test about the main theoretic proposition considering the marketization degree as a control variable, and respectively validated effects of energy exploitation on manufacturing development, human capital accumulation, and technological innovation through cross-province panel data from Western China. Finally, it observed relationship between energy exploitation and economic growth since 1990s, and comparatively analyzed dynamic change and its cause of the relationship before and after the western development, and quantitatively verified transmission channels resulting in resource curse in Western China.
引文
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