摘要
服务经济依托互联网和信息技术而迅速发展,由此催生了一个新兴的研究领域——服务科学(Services Science),从服务科学的角度认为:传统供应链中的任何企业已无法独立完成创造价值的任务。例如,从新产品的开发、生产、销售和售后服务这种周而复始的过程,应该是一种具有丰富科学内涵的服务供应链,服务供应链是服务科学领域的研究热点,服务外包是服务供应链中企业与企业之间协作的主要形式。
本文运用管理科学、微分方程稳定性理论、随机过程、决策科学、博弈论、计量经济学、信息安全原理等多种理论和方法,致力于服务供应链中外包方与提供商间的信息与决策问题研究,主要包括以下几部分:
(1)服务科学、服务供应链、服务外包的研究现状综述
详细总结并分析了服务科学这一新兴学科领域的相关研究工作和已有研究成果,从服务型经济时代服务科学的产生背景出发,研究了服务的定义和特征,界定了现代服务业与服务型生产企业的内涵,总结了服务供应链及服务外包等领域的已有研究成果,指出该领域需要进一步研究的问题,然后提出本文的主要研究框架。
(2)企业是否应该将某项服务业务外包给第三方服务提供商?
阐述了服务外包的产生背景、服务外包给企业带来的好处和风险、服务外包的决策因素。研究了服务供应链中的企业是否进行服务外包的决策问题,基于群决策理论,给出了一种新的辅助服务外包决策的群决策方法,促进决策者达成共识。利用一个中小型企业IT服务外包的案例说明了基于Markov链的服务外包群决策支持方法的具体步骤和实施方法。
(3)一旦决定将服务外包,作为服务外包方的企业如何选择服务提供商,
如何与服务提供商协作以达到双赢的目标?在服务型经济环境中,企业与企业之间以服务外包形式进行的合作并不是短期事务型的,而是一种长期的、可持续发展的长期合作关系。对于服务外包方来说,传统外包活动主要以降低成本为中心,比较各个服务提供商提供的外包价格,价格最低者胜出。目前服务外包活动的目标已经发生了转变,不再以降低成本作为第一目标,而是结合可持续发展的长远目标,综合考虑外包成本、由服务外包可获得的利润以及潜在增长机遇。本部分研究了服务供应链中的服务外包协作关系及服务外包方与服务提供商博弈行为的演化问题,分析了服务外包活动的演化博弈特征和服务外包中各参与方的决策对长期演化行为的影响。基于合作博弈和演化博弈的理论基础建立了服务外包的动力学演化博弈模型,根据李亚普诺夫(Lyapunov)的非线性稳定性理论分析此类演化博弈的演化稳定策略(Evolutionarily Stable Strategy, ESS),并发现存在双赢——实现可持续发展的服务外包定价的可能性。
(4)如何加强服务外包在实施过程中风险与安全的控制?
在服务外包的实施过程中,经常会产生信息泄露、成本失控、服务质量失控、外包活动延期等各种风险,这些风险的成因复杂、控制方法各异。例如,IT服务外包中的信息安全风险一方面与服务外包方及其服务提供商有关,另一面也与不可控制且难以预见的第三方(如黑客)有关。本部分针对服务供应链上的IT服务外包所导致的信息安全问题,从密码学的角度研究了托管型软件服务的数据库安全,提出了一个基于齿轮齿条传动原理的数据库加密解密模型(P-R模型),给出了P-R模型的实施技术并研究了基于P-R模型的数据库相关操作、模型的计算复杂性以及系统性能。
(5)决定服务质量信息传播的因素有哪些?服务质量信息对服务外包方与服务提供商的协作具有什么样的影响?
在服务外包的交付和实施中,服务质量依赖于客户感知,服务质量的口碑是影响服务提供商绩效评价和业务增长的最重要因素之一,服务质量的口碑是通过信息传播的方式扩散的。本部分研究了服务质量的信息传播问题,利用传染病动力学理论建立了服务质量信息传播模型。通过模型仿真,研究并分析了服务质量信息传播率、服务外包方对较差服务质量的容忍度、知情不报者比率以及受影响客户群迁入迁出变化率对模型演化结果的影响,提出了控制和提高服务质量的策略和方法。在此基础上,进一步研究了周期性变化的服务质量信息传播率,建立了相应的信息传播模型并给出了模型的数值解。
(6)服务质量中产品保修时间对企业收益有什么影响?怎样做出最优产品保修时间和最优产品销售价格的决策?
本部分以服务策略与服务成本为研究对象,通过产品售后服务策略的实例说明研究产品保修时间与产品销售价格决策问题的原因,总结了产品故障率曲线并建立起一般的保修时间与保修成本之间的函数关系。以产品保修时间和产品销售价格作为决策变量,以企业利润最大化作为决策目标,建立了产品保修时间和产品销售价格的决策模型,求出了最优产品保修时间和最优产品销售价格。分析了客户应当如何根据产品保修时间、产品故障率以及产品发生故障后的维修成本进行产品购买决策,也分析了实例中的销售服务方如何根据产品维修成本和产品故障率进行产品销售价格的决策。
本论文的创新点主要体现在:
(1)在传统的群决策理论与应用研究中,有两个重要的研究问题:决策专家权重的分配和群决策结果的算法。本文给出的服务供应链中服务外包决策的群决策权重分配方法综合考虑决策专家的缜密程度和偏激程度,通过纯数据分析计算权重,不介入人为的主观因素,所以能客观、公正地解决权重分配问题;本文给出的群决策结果算法从群决策过程中决策者偏好变化的数据里挖掘出状态转移概率矩阵,用Markov链的转移概率极限和不变概率测度求出的群决策结果,不仅与当前状态有关,还与群决策过程中决策者偏好调整的动态过程和发展趋势有关,用有限轮次的群决策过程达到无限轮次的群决策效果。
(2)服务供应链中外包方与提供商间能否形成长期的、可持续发展的合作关系,关键是“定价”决策问题。本文从合作博弈与演化博弈的角度研究了服务供应链中外包方与提供商间博弈行为的演化问题,建立了动力学演化博弈模型,用李亚普诺夫(Lyapunov)非线性稳定性理论分析并求出此类演化博弈的演化稳定策略(Evolutionarily Stable Strategy, ESS)——如果“定价”满足一定的条件,必然存在一个“双赢解”的区域。
(3)针对服务供应链中的IT服务外包可能产生的信息安全问题,从密码学角度研究了托管型软件服务的数据库安全问题,提出了基于齿轮齿条传动机制的数据库加密解密模型(P-R模型)原理,研究了P-R模型抗攻击能力的计算复杂性、实施方法、加密解密和数据库相关操作的效率等问题。与传统的使用单一加密算法和长密钥来加密数据库的数据库安全算法相比, P-R模型使用短密钥和简单加密算法,在不引起系统性能降低的前提下,不仅具有更好的数据库安全性,而且获得了更快的加密解密操作速度。
The Internet and related information technologies have recently enabled the rapid development of service-led economy and necessitated a new research area: Service Science (SS). Service Science emphasizes using fundamental science, models, theories and methods to manage the organization processes and resources of service activities, not only from the traditional service sector, but from the industry sector in so-called service-led economy environments. Traditional supply chains, which transform natural resources, raw materials and components into a generalized product are fast becoming science enriched Service-Oriented Supply Chains (SSC), in which any involved enterprise can no longer perform service activities independently. Service Outsourcing (SO) is the leading coordination method between any pair of enterprises related within the chain. The management and organization of such a Services Supply Chain presents a fundamental challenge in Service Science research.
This dissertation applies the theories and approaches in Differential Equation and Stability Theory, Stochastic Process, Decision Science, Game Theory, Econometrics, and Information Security to the research on some information and decision-making issues which are encountered by Service Providers and Service Outsourcer involved in SSC when practicing strategic transformation. The dissertation includes the following parts:
(1) Literature Review of Service Science, Service-Oriented Supply Chains, and Service Outsourcing
Based on the backgrounds of service-led economy environments, we summarize related work in the newly developed research area of Service Science. We study the definitions, characteristics and connotations of service, generalized product, modern service sector, as well as service oriented businesses. We also recall achievements in the research of Service-Oriented Supply Chains and Service Outsourcing, indicate an outlook for future work, and present the research framework of this dissertation.
(2) Whether an enterprise should outsource its service activities to a third-party service provider?
This part illustrates the backgrounds of Service Outsourcing, the advantages and risks that businesses face when outsourcing service activities. It addresses the decision-making problem of service outsourcing and proposes a new group decision-making support approach to accelerate decision-makers towards reaching a consensus. An IT service outsourcing example is used to explain the implementation of such a Markov-based approach.
(3) Once the service outsourcing is decided, how should the outsourcer choose and collaborate with its service provider to achieve a win-win partnership?
Traditional outsourcing is transactional and aims only at lowering the cost for this activity. Therefore, service outsourcers simply compare the prices quoted to them by different service providers, and then choose the provider with the lowest price when making decisions. However, as the competition between outsourcers strengthens, along with the dependence among participants in the service-led economy environments, service outsourcing has evolved from the single aim of lowering cost to involving multiple objectives which consist not only of outsourcing cost, but profit and potential development opportunities as well. This part investigates service collaboration relationships in the Service-Oriented Supply Chain and the evolution of participants’behaviors in service outsourcing, and then analyzes the evolutionary game features of service outsourcing activity. Based on cooperative game theory and evolutionary game theory, we set up an evolutionary game model for service outsourcing, analyze its Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) in terms of Lyapunov’s nonlinear stability theory, and also probe into the pricing ranges for a win-win strategy in sustainable development of service outsourcing.
(4) How to strengthen risk control in the process of service outsourcing?
There are many risks generated from service outsourcing, the most important of which are information release, out-of-control cost and service quality, and the delay of predefined deadline. These risks are caused by various reasons and therefore the control methods for these risks are different from each other. For example, the information security risk involved in outsourcing IT services in the Service-Oriented Supply Chain is not confined to only the involved service outsourcers and service providers, but also to some other third parties, invisible and unpredictable, such as hackers. This part addresses the security of outsourced information systems, such as databases, from the perspective of cryptology. A database encryption/decryption model is put forward, which uses the field of a record from a database as the basic encryption granularity. This style of cryptography is referred to as the Pinion-Rack (PR) encryption and decryption model, and we also present implementation issues encountered when adopting this model. The computational complexity and system performance of the PR model are also analyzed.
(5) What are the factors deciding the dissemination of service quality evaluation? How does it affect collaborations between service providers and service outsourcers?
Service quality is one of the key risks in service outsourcing. The quality of a service activity depends mainly on customers’perception for the sake of the intangible features of service. Customers’perception of service quality decides the dissemination of service quality evaluations. Such evaluations affect both customers’buying attitudes and buying behaviour, and therefore business profits. This part studies the dissemination of service quality evaluations and develops a model for this kind of problem based on the Epidemic Dynamics Theory. It also analyzes how the following four arguments will affect simulation results of the service quality dissemination model, which includes the transmission rate of service quality evaluations, customers’tolerance degree of bad service quality, mobility rate of customer population, and the change rate of customers having an apathetic approach to evaluation service quality to active participation in the evaluation process. Then this part further introduces Hooke’s law of elasticity into the model and studies a kind of periodically changing transmission rate, puts forward a corresponding model and presents its simulation results.
(6) How does product warranty time affect business profit? How to make decisions on optimal product warranty time and optimal product price?
This part addresses service strategies and service costs in the Service-Oriented Supply Chain. It exemplifies the reason for studying the relationship between generalized product warranty time and product price, summarizes product failure ratio curves, and then sets up a general function of the warranty time and the warranty cost. Using product warranty time and product price as decision-making arguments and business profit as the decision-making objective, this part finally puts forward a decision-making model to solve the optimal product warranty time and optimal product price, and analyzes the decision-making processes for both service providers and service outsourcers with such a model.
The main contributions of this dissertation are to:
(1) Present a new group decision-making support approach for supporting service outsourcing decision-making. Prior studies in the research literature have not considered group decision preference adjustment as a continuous process and neglected its impact on group decision-making. This approach intends to address this neglected issue and is based on Markov chain models. Furthermore, we also present a new group decision weight allocation method which is shown to be more fair by taking into account both the individual decision-maker’s carefulness and the differences among the individual’s preference and other’s preferences.
(2) Set up an evolutionary game model for service outsourcing based on game theory and dynamics, give the corresponding non-linear differential equations, analyze the Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) of the model, and probe into the pricing ranges for a win-win strategy in sustainable development of service outsourcing.
(3) Put forward a new database encryption/decryption model to enhance database security in outsourced information systems. Better than traditional methods using a single algorithm with long keys to acquire data confidentiality, our model, termed as the pinion-rack encryption and decryption model, uses shorter length keys and simpler algorithms to acquire better data confidentiality without incurring too much negative effect on system performance. On the other hand, our approach exclusively involves sensitive data, in order to minimize the number of necessary encryption and decryption operations, thus being likely to further lower cryptographic overload.
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