摘要
工程管理过程中存在复杂性,可能会涌现一些难以把握的复杂系统行为,使得工程管理效率降低,这要求研究者和管理者必须改变观念、转变思路,将工程管理理论、供应链管理理论、CAS理论等交叉融合,探索工程供应链管理这一新的管理理论体系。工程供应链管理协调优化研究的难点在于工程建设多目标、多主体博弈行为、多主体的异质性特征以及他们之间的交互产生的复杂性。计算实验方法在社会科学各个领域的应用逐渐体现出其强大的优势,使用计算实验方法研究社会科学问题具有开创性的意义。工程供应链系统作为一类典型的复杂社会系统,其复杂性特性对其研究方法提出了一定的要求,而计算实验方法则可以较好的解决这一问题。本文主要采用计算实验和定性定量方法重点研究了工程供应链协调与优化的问题,主要结论有：
(1)工程供应链管理以集成、协调与共享为核心思想,其协调与优化问题是一个由多个异质性主体参与的要素众多、层次复杂、关系错综、目标功能多样的复杂系统,相关问题的认识与解决应该考虑系统管理和复杂性管理的思想与方法。
(2)针对工程供应链中工期优化问题,构建了立足于工程全生命周期角度的业主与承包商的收益共享谈判模型。设置了谈判双方均具有公平关切、仅业主具有公平关切、仅承包商具有公平关切三种实验情景,研究了主体公平关切程度对谈判可行域、谈判成功结果、谈判效率等方面的影响。实验结果表明：谈判双方的公平关切程度越高,谈判成功的可行域越小；主体适度提高公平关切程度,会导致工期优化幅度较大,但过度关注公平会导致双方成本大幅增长,不利于系统利润增长；主体不同的公平关切程度会对自身收益产生不同影响；双方保持适度公平关切能够提高谈判成功率,缩短谈判周期。
(3)针对混凝土生产与配送中的拌合站资源管理与资源供应问题,研究多个施工单位共享拌合站资源、联合配送情况下,降低资源供应成本的问题,并构建了基于混凝土拌合站规划的成本共担计算实验模型。研究结果表明通过成本共担可以减少拌合站建设数量；通过资源共享可以实现拌合站的建设、管理成本大幅下降,同时提高拌合站的资源使用效率；成本共担是一种有效的协同机制,能够达到施工成本优化、资源共享的目的。
(4)针对工程供应链中业主与承包商群体的一对多结构,考虑如何通过收益激励方式对工程质量进行优化。从工程全生命周期角度构建了承包商群体的多阶段质量激励模型,通过计算实验方法探讨了承包商具有公平偏好情景下激励模型的优化效率。研究表明：基于业主角度,收益激励是一种有效的激励方式；承包商个体的公平偏好对激励效果会产生负面影响；激励力度的确定需要遵循“适度原则”和“系统思维”；业主要具有“演化观念”,并摆脱只关注短期效率的“近视”观念,才能达到激励效率的持续高效。
(5)针对工程供应链中的工期风险源进行了识别,分析相应的工期风险控制策略以及工期风险的评估方法。考虑到工期风险的传递特性和业主的工期延误奖惩制度,对施工联合体内部成员间的三种风险分担策略分别构建计算实验模型。通过对比三种风险分担策略分析联合体成员在工序关键路径上的工期风险分担效果。研究表明：联合体内部不同的风险共担策略导致了不同的工期风险控制效果,业主和联合体牵头企业必须制定合理的风险共担机制,才能充分调动联合体成员工期风险控制的积极性和主动性,达到较好控制工期风险的目标。
(6)通过分析工程供应链中的技术创新协同决策问题以及协同决策过程,构建出相应的计算实验模型。研究结果表明：工程供应链核心企业在选择协作成员时,应注意选择具有相关知识背景的组织成员,或者对不具备的相应知识结构的成员进行学习培训；沟通机制越好,组织内部的决策意见一致程度越高,组织成员越快做出正确的决策；当决策问题的决策知识集中在某一类知识领域时,决策组织能够在较短时间内形成让多数人认可的决策方案,其决策效率要高于决策问题的决策知识较为分散情况下的决策效率。
Complexity during construction management sometimes cause complex system behavior and difficult. It requests researchers and managers translate concept and way with cross-integrating of the theories of project management, supply chain management, CAS to explore construction supply chain management theory and improve construction efficiency. Difficulties during construction supply chain management are multi-objects, multi-agents behavior, heterogeneity of multi-agent and complexity caused by interactive behavior between multiply participants. Computational experiments show significance on the research of behaviors, emergency, and the relation between micro-level and macro-level systems. As a typical complex system, the construction supply chains are a suitable study subject to the method of computational experiments which to be a good solution for solving its complexity. This paper studied construction supply chain coordination and optimization based on computational experiment and the qualitative quantitative method. The main conclusion included:
(1) Core idea of construction supply chain is integration, coordination and sharing, coordination and optimization of CSC is a complex systematic issue leads by human with which numerous elements, different levels, complex relationship, and multi-objectives, will lead question understanding and the solution should consider the thought and the method of system management and complexity management.
(2) Adopting a life-cycle perspective, this paper focuses on time compression in construction projects, and builds an agent-based model on revenue-sharing negotiation. We design three experimental scenarios:only owner has fairness preference, only contractor has fairness preference, both owner and contractor have fairness preferences. Our aim is to find how agents'fairness preferences impact feasible region of agreements, results of successful negotiations and efficiency in negotiations. Results are as follows:raising agents'fairness preferences will compress the feasible region. When agents raise their fairness preferences properly, it will lead to a significant compression in construction time. However, when agents pay attention to fairness preferences excessively, it will lead to substantial cost growth and it is not conducive to growth of profit. Agents'different fairness preferences will take different effects on their profits. Appropriate fairness preferences of agents can improve the success rate of negotiations and shorten the negotiation periods.
(3) Mixing plant resource management is quite important to concrete production and distribution. This Paper build an experimental model based on sharing of the cost of concrete mixing plant considering multi-contractors share their Mixing plants and transportation. Result shows:cost-sharing can reduce the number of mixing plants; resource sharing can reduce cost of mixing plant construction and management, simultaneously improve the efficiency of mixing plant; cost sharing is an effective coordination mechanism to achieve the purpose of construction cost optimization and resource sharing.
(4) This paper studied one owner and many contractors construction system in construction supply chain, in which the owner used revenue incentive model to stimulate contractors on project quality optimization and coordination. We built multi-stage incentive model on condition that contractors had fairness perceptions based on project total life cycle, and did some analysis on performance and evolution under different incentive dynamics by computational experiment. Results showed that: revenue incentive is an effective method for owner; individual fairness perceptions had negative influence on incentive performance;"Moderate principle" and "System Thinking" should be followed when owner draft incentive dynamics;"Evolution concept" is important to achieve sustained efficient incentive efficiency.
(5) This paper analyzes duration risk source, control strategies and assessment methods. Considering the risk transmission characteristics and the owner' delay reward system, three-sharing strategies between contractors are constructed to calculate the experimental model. By comparing the three risk-sharing strategies, studies have shown that:different risk-sharing strategy led to different effect for duration risk control. Reasonable risk-sharing mechanism can fully mobilize the enthusiasm and initiative of contractor members to achieve the goal of better control of duration risk.
(6) This paper analyzes collaborative decision-making and its process during technological innovation in construction supply chain, and builds the corresponding calculation of experimental model. Results show that:knowledge background is necessary when selecting members for collaborative decision-making; the better the communication mechanism, the higher the degree of consensus decision-making within the organization, and the sooner the organization to make the right decisions; When the decision-making knowledge is concentrated in certain area, decision scheme can be formed in a relatively short time, its efficient is higher than when decision-making knowledge is dispersed in several areas.
引文
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