摘要
自2001年以来,中国外汇储备开始出现持续快速增长。分析我国外汇储备变动的原因,它不仅与我国经济发展模式、宏观经济运行和内外均衡状况有关,更与全球生产格局和全球经济运行机制的变化有着极为密切的联系。总体上看,我国外汇储备增长既是全球外汇储备格局变动的一个组成部分,具有与全球外汇储备变动共性的方面,同时也有我国自身的特点。
从全球外汇储备总量与储备分布格局变动的原因看,主要与全球分工方式的发展有关。自上世纪90年代以来,在美国信息产业发展的带动下,产品内分工日益成为一种主要的国际分工模式。在这种分工模式下,参与全球分工的国家分裂为两个集团:一些发达国家(如美国)凭借其在知识密集型环节的优势掌握了众多产业价值链中的主导环节,并将其不具备要素优势的产品加工环节转移至海外,从而成为生产性服务的主要提供商,越来越少地从事产品实体的生产。而一些发展中国家则凭借其在劳动力成本和其他资源上的优势,承接了发达国家的产品生产与加工制造环节并因此成为全球工业制成品的主要供应商。由此全球贸易格局也发生了重大变化,发达国家对工业品的需求日益依赖从发展中国家的进口来满足,贸易账户进而经常账户长期存在逆差;发展中国家成为全球制造业基地,面向全球市场生产并出口工业品,使其经常账户长期存在较大规模顺差并成为其外汇储备增长的重要来源。
进一步看,随着产品内国际分工的发展,参与全球分工的国家内部经济运行机制也发生了重大变化。以主导全球分工的美国来看,其国内物价水平尤其是工业制成品的价格不再取决于国内生产成本和国内货币供应,而是由国际市场的工业制成品价格决定,而产品内国际分工的发展在极大地提高全球资源利用效率同时,有效保持了全球工业制成品价格的长期稳定,所以,美国自上世纪90年代以来在货币政策持续扩张的情况下,国内物价保持了相当的稳定。此外,在产品内国际分工下,美国产品制造环节的对外转移使美国国内的制造业投资规模增速减缓,在其经常账户持续逆差的情况下,经济增长只能依靠消费需求拉动。由此,在失去通货膨胀约束的情况下,美国为追求经济增长,可以持续采取扩张性货币政策,充裕的流动性在刺激国内消费需求,拉动国内服务业发展并带动美国经济增长的同时,也会带动商品进口,并拉动以制造业为主的经济体的出口和投资增长,制造业国家的经济增长又会使其对美国生产性服务需求增加,刺激美国经济增长,同时也增加对资源性产品的需求,使资源出口国外汇收入增加,产出扩大。由此,消费需求不仅成为拉动美国经济增长的主要动力,也是全球经济增长的最终动力。而在这种循环模式中,由美国经常账户持续逆差形成大量的美元对外输出,持续输出的美元成为以制造业为主的经济体和重要资源出口国外汇储备增长的来源。
从我国外汇储备增长的内在机理看,则主要是由于我国在全球分工中的地位决定的。一方面,我国以廉价的劳动力优势参与全球分工,主要从事产业链终端的产品加工与生产,成为全球主要的制造业基地,大量工业制成品的出口和以加工贸易为主的贸易模式使我国经常账户持续保持顺差。同时由于我国的制造业是在承接发达国家低端制造环节转移基础上发展起来的,因此,在经常账户顺差的同时,资本与金融账户下也因外商直接投资而始终保持顺差,双顺差成为我国国际收支失衡的基本特征。另一方面,处于全球产业链的低端,使我国产业的整体附加值偏低,经济增长的同时国民福利改善缓慢,制约了国内消费需求的增长,与美国相反,我国经济增长主要靠投资和出口拉动,再加上发展中国家在全球经济中的不利地位和我国对于发达国家产业的依附性,使我国汇率变动的政策风险加大,因此,在国际收支双顺差规模不断扩大的情况下,我国只能通过增加外汇储备来替代人民币大幅度升值,以确保宏观经济基本稳定。尤其是在产品内国际分工下,我国通货膨胀变动与货币供应量之间的关系明显减弱,外汇储备增长的物价约束放松,所以,储备变动成为我国这一时期平衡外部失衡的主要手段。这是我国外汇储备增长的重要的内在原因。
总之,产品内国际分工下,全球生产格局和经济运行机制的变化、我国在全球分工中占据低端环节的地位决定了我国外汇储备增长现实,在我国全球分工地位未发生根本性改变前,我国的外汇储备将始终保持增长,即使是现在全球面临较大的衰退压力时,我国的贸易规模会下降,但依然会保持贸易收支顺差。因此,我国对于外汇储备管理的重点就不应过分集中于对适度储备规模的研究,而应该引入外汇储备的分层次管理,尤其是对基于政策配合因素形成的外汇储备资产,将其功能定位于发展性储备,其资产的管理与运用应该强调与国家全球化战略的配合,发展性储备的运行应该有利于从根本上确保我国经济运行的安全性和宏观经济的稳定性。
Since 2001,China's foreign exchange reserves began to keep sustained and rapid growth. According to the reasons for changes in China's foreign exchange reserves,it is not only related to China's economic development model,the macroeconomic operation and the internal and external imbalances,but also has a very close contact with the global production patterns and the changes in global economy operating mechanism.Overall,the growth in China's foreign exchange reserves is an integral part of global foreign exchange reserves changes,which is in the same direction with it.At the same time,China also has its own characteristics.
From the reasons for the total global foreign exchange reserves and the reserves distribution changes,we can see that it mainly has bearing on the development of global specialization pattern.Since the 90's of the last century,intra-product division is increasingly becoming a major mode of international division of labor with the development of information industry in the United States.In this division model of labor,countries participated in the global division of labor split into two groups:some developed countries(such as the United States)master a number of industry-leading processes of value chain with its advantages in knowledge-intensive sectors,and transfer product processing segments to overseas that they do not have the elements advantages.So,they become the main providers of the productive services,and engage in the production of products less and less.While some developing countries undertake the production processing and the manufacturing sectors of developed countries by virtue of their advantages of labor costs and other resources,and therefore becoming the global industry's major supplier of manufactured goods,the pattern of global trade has also undergone a significant change. Developed countries' demand for industrial products is increasingly dependent on imports from developing countries,and their trade accounts and then the current accounts keep a long-standing deficit;Developing countries become the global manufacturing base for production of global market and export of industrial products,making their current accounts keep a long-term and large-scale surplus and become an important source of foreign exchange reserves.
Further,as the development of intra-product international specialization,the internal operating mechanism of countries which participated in the global division also changed significantly.From the aspect of the United States that lead the world division,its domestic price level particularly the price of manufactured goods no longer depends on domestic production costs and its domestic money supply,but on industrial products price in the international market.While,the development of intra-product international specialization greatly improved the use efficiency of global resources,and at the same time effectively maintained the long-term stability of the world's manufactured goods prices.So since the 1990's,the United States' domestic price has maintained a considerable stability at the situation of continued expansionary monetary policy.In addition,under the intra-product international specialization, the transfer of United States' manufacturing segment enables the growth rate of United States' manufacturing size to slow down.With its continuing current account deficit,the economic growth must rely on consumer demand.Thus,as the inflation is in loss of restraint,the United States can continue to adopt an expansionary monetary policy in pursuit of economic growth. Ample liquidity can not only stimulate domestic consumer demand and development of the domestic service industry and promote the development of U.S.economic growth,but also will spur imports of goods and the manufacturing-driven economies' exports and investment growth. The manufacturing-driven country's economic growth will enable its increased demand for the United States' productive services and stimulate the United States' economic growth.It also can increase the demand of resource-based products so that resources-exporting countries can increase foreign exchange earnings and expand the output.Thus,consumer demand has not only become the main driving force of the United States' economic growth,but also become the ultimate driving force of the global economic growth.In such a cycle model,the United States' sustained current account deficit can explain the formation of the large number outflow of US $;. Continuous outflow of the US $ become a resource of the foreign exchange reserves growth for manufacturing-based economies and the resource-exporting countries.
From the inherent mechanism of China's foreign exchange reserves growth,it was mainly attributable to our country's division position in the world.On the one hand,our country participate in the global division of labor with China's advantages of cheap labor,mainly engage in products processing and production of the terminal industrial chain and become the world's leading manufacturing base.The export of a large number of industrial products and the trade patterns of a processing trade make our country's current account continue to maintain a surplus. At the same time,China's manufacturing industry is developed on the base of undertaking the transfer of developed countries' low-end manufacturing segments.Therefore,besides the current account surplus,the capital and financial account also always maintain a surplus as a result of foreign direct investment.A double surplus become the basic characteristics of international payments imbalance.On the other hand,being at the low end of the global industrial chain makes China's overall industrial added value low.With the economic growth,the national welfare's slow improvement restricted the growth of domestic consumption demand.In contrast with the United States,China's economic growth depends mainly on the stimulus of investment and export.Together with the disadvantaged status of developing countries in the global economy and our country's dependence on developed countries' industries,the policy risk of China's exchange rate changes is increased.Therefore,in the case of China's increasingly expanding size of dual surplus,China can only increase foreign exchange reserves to replace a substantial appreciation of the RMB in order to ensure stable macroeconomy.Particularly in the situation of intra-product international specialization,the relationship between China's inflation and money supply is apparently weakening and the price constraint of foreign exchange reserves growth is relaxed.So,changes in reserves become the principal means of balancing China's external imbalance during this period.This is an important underlying reason for the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves.
In short,at the situation of intra-product international specialization,the changes of global production pattern and economic operation mechanism,the low-end status of our country in the world division decides the reality of China's foreign exchange reserves growth.Before China's position in the global division of labor does not have a fundamental change,China's foreign exchange reserves will always maintain growing.Even now the whole world facing larger recession pressure,China's trade volume will drop,but still will maintain a surplus.Therefore, the management of official reserves should not be overly focused on the modest scale but should introduce the management of foreign exchange reserves at different levels.Especially for those foreign reserves assets based on policies factors,we should orientate its function to developing reserves and its management and application should emphasize to match with the nation's globalization strategy.The operation of developing reserves utterly should be conducive to ensure the security of China's economic performance and macroeconomic stability.
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