摘要
一直以来,劳动生产率和就业都是理论界和业界所研究的重大问题,为各国政府所高度重视。劳动生产率不仅决定着一家企业、一个产业的竞争优势,而且对于增加国民财富、提高工人工资、改善人们生活水平,甚至推动社会进步都有着不可或缺的作用。就业问题更加是国计民生,经济持续增长、人民安居乐业、社会和谐稳定无不与之有着极为密切的联系。
改革开放三十年来,中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就,也出现了一系列不容回避的问题。在人类历史的又一个千年,中国经济将面临着前所未有的发展机遇和挑战。作为中国经济发展的排头兵,上海最先感知到来自国际社会的压力,再次面临着重大的经济转型,即朝着更加高级的经济形态迈进。
上海作为中国工业发展的先驱,对全国的工业发展一直起着引领作用。在上海实现经济顺利转型的重要时期,如何把握其工业的发展节奏和步伐,如何调整其工业的内部结构,对上海经济的顺利转型、劳动生产率的增长和就业的稳定都有着极为重要的理论和实践意义。
为此,本文以上海工业劳动生产率为研究的逻辑起点,应用多种经济计量方法和手段,深入探讨工业劳动生产率增长对就业的影响。其研究内容和结论主要体现在以下几个方面：
1、上海市工业劳动生产率分解模型构建及实证。首先,基于指数分解原理,将劳动生产率分解为纯生产率、鲍姆和丹尼森三大效应；其次,借鉴前沿生产理论和全要素生产率理论,勾勒出上海市工业劳动生产率的前沿生产模型和前沿生产面,并运用距离函数,构建出上海市工业劳动生产率的四重分解模型。
上海工业劳动生产率增长因素的三大效应表明：纯生产率效应是上海工业劳动生产率增长的主要因素,鲍姆效应和丹尼森效应对劳动生产率增长的贡献较低；因而,促进上海市工业各行业间的要素流动,发挥工业行业的整体效应是上海工业进一步发展的重要举措。
在影响上海工业劳动生产率增长的四大因素中,资本深化最为显著,人均资本规模效率最弱。这说明上海工业在很大程度上依然是外延发展方式。因此,加强教育培训、提高劳动者素质,提升人均资本规模效率对劳动生产率增长的影响力度是实现上海工业劳动生产率持续增长的主要途径。
2、经济转型期上海劳动生产率和就业的理论及经济计量分析。上海劳动生产率与就业增长有着明显的阶段性特征,与上海经济发展的几个阶段基本吻合。劳动生产率与就业增长速度放缓的特点再次表明上海面临着又一次经济转型,即转向更加高级的经济形态。对上海市工业的重点分析还表明,劳动生产率增速放缓和就业人数减少是工业化进程不断推进的必然结果,这完全符合经济发展的基本规律。
运用相对劳动生产率、结构偏离度等计量模型和方法,揭示了经济转型期上海劳动就业变动的内在动因。
三十年来上海劳动生产率和就业的增长变动表明,劳动生产率与就业之间不是简单的“替代”或“补偿”关系。劳动生产率的提高在短期内对就业有着挤出作用,但从长期看来却又是吸纳就业的基础。因此,大力发展第二、第三产业是提高劳动生产率、促进经济增长和扩大就业的主要渠道。三次产业的结构分析还表明,伴随着产业结构的调整,上海就业结构逐渐趋于合理。
3、经济转型期上海工业劳动生产率增长与就业增长的实证分析。应用多种经济计量方法,分别分析了三大效应和四重分解因素与就业增长之间的关系。结果显示,工业劳动生产率的提高对就业具有挤出作用。在三大效应中,纯生产率和丹尼森效应对就业的挤出效应较为明显,鲍姆效应对就业挤出效应最小。在四重分解因素中,资本深化对就业的挤出作用最为显著,技术进步和人均资本规模效率对就业有着一定的挤出效应,技术效率对就业有一定的促进作用。因此,通过上海工业产业内部结构的调整,进一步提升鲍姆效应和技术效率,可以实现劳动生产率与就业的同步增长。
4、上海市工业劳动生产率增长与就业增长的微观案例分析。通过问卷调查、访谈等方式获得企业资料,并沿袭宏观数据分解思想,分析企业层面劳动生产率的主要影响因素。同时应用经济计量方法,探讨劳动生产率提高对就业的影响。
研究结果表明,工业企业劳动生产率的提高通常会对就业产生挤出效应,使得宏观研究结论在企业微观层面再次得到了验证。劳动生产率的二重分解因素也表明,主要依靠资本因素来提高劳动生产率的企业在本质依然属于外延式发展,依靠技术管理因素来提高劳动生产的企业很大程度上则属于内涵式发展。对部分企业劳动生产率与就业两者的研究还表明,对于那些成长性较好的企业,通过内部结构调整,完全可以实现劳动生产率与就业的同步增长。
5、经济转型期促进上海工业劳动生产率与就业增长的政策建议。在前文理论和实证研究的基础上,通过分析、归纳和总结,指出经济转型期上海工业劳动生产率与就业增长中所存在的问题和不足,且据此提出切实可行的政策建议。
本文的创新性主要体现在以下几个方面：
1、研究视角的创新。本文基于随机生产前沿理论,将上海市工业劳动生产率与就业增长纳入统一研究框架之下,构建出两者的理论框架,探讨其演化机制。以往的研究分别对上海工业劳动生产率、劳动就业作过深入的探讨,但没有研究两者之间的相互作用机制,而本文从整合的视角出发,无疑是一个创新。
2、研究方法的创新。应用前沿生产面和前沿生产模型,在理论上进一步分析上海市工业劳动生产率的影响因素,并综合应用相对劳动生产率、结构偏离度和数据包络分析等经济计量方法,探讨了经济转型时期,上海工业劳动生产率增长对就业的影响。在宏观计量分析的同时,论文还结合微观案例,论证了劳动生产率增长与就业增长的关系在微观企业的表现。在研究方法上既有理论推演,又有实证分析,还有案例说明,理论与实际相结合,是本课题在方法上的一个创新。
3、研究内容的创新。本文旨在揭示上海市工业劳动生产率增长对就业增长影响的内在逻辑机理,找出两者相互共生、相互促进的方法或模式。首先,应用经济增长和生产率测算理论讨论上海市工业劳动生产率与就业共时增长“悖论”；其次,运用产业结构升级、劳动力流转理论,并基于上海资源禀赋,试图解答上述“悖论”；最后,通过对上海工业劳动生产率和劳动就业的深层次分析,为转型时期上海市工业,乃至整个上海经济发展提出具体的政策建议。
For a very long time, labor productivity and employment have been major issues for theoretical and industrial research, and aroused the attention of many national governments. Labor productivity not only determines a company's or an industry's competitive advantage, but also plays an indispensable role in increasing national wealth, workers'wages and improving people's living standards, and even in promoting social progress. However, employment is much more concerned with a state's development and people's livelihood; Sustainable economic growth, people's live and work in peace and contentment, social harmony and stability are all very close with it.
After the reform and opening up for three decades, China's economy has made remarkable achievements, and has also encountered a series of unavoidable problems. In another millennium, China's economy is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. As the vanguard of China's economic development, Shanghai is first perceived the pressure from the international society, and is facing a major economic restructuring once again, namely, marching towards a more advanced economic pattern.
As the pioneer of China's industrial development, Shanghai has been playing a leading role for all-China industrial development. Therefore, at the important period of economic transition, they have a very important theoretical and practical significances for the successful transition of Shanghai's economy, labor productivity growth and employment stability how to grasp the rhythm and pace of industrial development and how to adjust the internal structure of its industry,
Thus, taking labor productivity as a logical starting point, the paper adopts many econometric methods and means to probe into the influences of industrial labor productivity growth over employment. Its contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1) The decomposition model construction and empirical research of Shanghai's industrial labor productivity. First, basing on index decomposition theory, the labor productivity is decomposed into pure productivity, Baumol and Denison effect; Second, by using frontier production theory and TFP theory, the frontier production model and frontier production surface are outlined, and utilizing the distance function, quadruplicate decomposition model of Shanghai's industrial labor productivity is constructed.
The three effects of Shanghai's industrial labor productivity growth factors show that pure productivity effect is the major factor of Shanghai's industrial labor productivity growth, Baumol and the Denison effects have less contribution. Thus, they are important measures for a further development of Shanghai's industry to promote the flow of elements among all industrial sectors, and to exert the overall effect of industrial sectors.
Among the four factors influencing Shanghai's industrial labor productivity growth, capital deepening is the most significant, the scale efficiency of per capita capital weakest. This reflects the industries of Shanghai are still largely an external development. Thus, there are some ways in achieving the sustainable growth of Shanghai's industrial labor productivity to strengthen education and training, to improve workers' quality, to enhance the impacts of scale efficiency of per capita capital over labor productivity growth.
(2) The theoretical and econometric analysis on Shanghai's labor productivity and employment during economic transition. There are some significant stage characteristics for Shanghai's labor productivity and employment growth, which coincides with Shanghai's economic development stages basically. With the characteristics that Shanghai's labor productivity and employment are slowing down, it denotes that Shanghai is facing with another economic restructuring once more, namely, the economy is turning to a more advanced pattern. An emphasis study on Shanghai's industry has also showed that they are inevitable results of the industrialization process with a slow growth of labor productivity and continuous reduce of employment; which is entirely consistent with the basic law of economic development.
Taking use of econometric models and methods as relative labor productivity, structure deviation degree, etc., the paper reveals the inner causes of employment changes during economic transition.
The changes of labor productivity and employment growth in thirty years show that the relationship between labor productivity and employment is not just simple as "alternative" or "compensation". The improvement of labor productivity has a crowding-out effect on employment in a short term, but it is the basis for creating jobs in a long run. Therefore, they are main channels for improving productivity, promoting economic growth and expanding employment to develop secondary and tertiary industries. The structural analysis of three industries also shows that, employment structure of Shanghai will be more reasonable with the adjustment of industrial structure.
(3) An empirical study on Shanghai's industrial labor productivity growth and employment growth during the economic transition. By means of a variety of econometric methods, the paper has analyzed the relationship between three effects and-employment growth, as well as the relationship between quadruplicate decomposition factors and employment growth respectively. The results show that the improvement of industrial labor productivity has a crowding-out effect on employment. Among the three effects, pure productivity effect and Denison effect have a relatively obvious crowding-out effect on employment, and productivity and Denison is more obvious, Baumol effect the least. Among quadruplicate decomposition factors, capital deepening has the most significant crowding-out effect on employment, technological progress and the scale efficiency of per capita capital a certain crowding-out effect on employment, and technical efficiency has a certain role in promoting employment. Therefore, through the restructuring of Shanghai's industries to further enhance the Baumol effect and technical efficiency, productivity and employment can achieve a synchronous growth.
(4) A micro-case analysis on Shanghai's industrial labor productivity and employment growth. Through the means to acquire business information as questionnaires, interviews, etc. and to follow the idea of decomposition for macro-level data, the paper has analyzed the main factors affecting labor productivity at the enterprise level. Meanwhile, by using econometric methods, the paper has probed into the impacts of labor productivity over employment.
The research results show that the improvement of labor productivity in industrial enterprises will have a crowding-out effect on employment, which has proved the macro-level research findings at the enterprise level. Dual decomposition factors has also showed some enterprises belong to external development ones, some other enterprises connotative ones. The research on both labor productivity and employment of some enterprises also shows that labor productivity and employment can achieve a synchronous growth through internal restructuring for those companies with promising development.
(5) Some policy recommendations for promoting Shanghai's industrial labor productivity and employment growth during economic transition. Basing on previous theoretical and empirical research, the paper has pointed out some problems and shortcomings existed in Shanghai's industrial labor productivity and employment growth during economic transition through an analysis, summary and conclusion, and put forward some practical policy recommendations accordingly.
The innovation of this paper is mainly as follows:
(1) The Innovation of research perspective. Basing on the stochastic frontier production theory, the paper has taken Shanghai's industrial labor productivity and employment growth into a unified research framework, building a theoretical framework for them, and probing into their evolutionary mechanisms. Previous studies discussed Shanghai's industrial labor productivity and employment respectively, but did not study their interaction mechanism. It is an innovation to study from an integration perspective.
(2) The Innovation of research methods. Using frontier production model, the paper has analyzed the influencing factors of Shanghai's industrial labor productivity theoretically; and some econometric methods, as relative labor productivity, DEA and so on comprehensively, the paper has discussed the influences of Shanghai's industrial labor productivity growth on employment during economic transition period. Meanwhile, the paper has demonstrated the relationship between labor productivity and employment growth at a micro-enterprise level through case studies.
(3) The Innovation of research contents. This article aims to reveal the inner logic of the influences of Shanghai's industrial labor productivity growth on employment, and to identify ways or patterns promoting each other. First, the paper has discussed the "Paradox" of simultaneous growth of Shanghai's industrial labor productivity and employment by adopting economic growth and productivity measurement theory; Second, the paper tries to solve the "Paradox" by using the theory of industrial structure upgrading and labor turnover; Finally, the paper offers some specific policy recommendations for Shanghai's industrial, or even its economic development through an in-depth analysis on industrial labor productivity and employment during economic transition period.
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