摘要
伴随着各国养老金制度改革实践的延续，对养老金制度改革以及养老体系构建相关议题的研讨也在逐渐地深入，养老金研究的重点逐渐由“现收现付制”与“积累制”(或者基金制)孰优孰劣的争论转向如何搭建一个多支柱、多层次和多机制共生的养老金体系，同时养老金体系与金融体系之间的相互关联问题也获得越来越多研究者的重视。在后一个研究领域，当前的研究主要关注的是养老金制度改革对资本市场的影响作用以及养老产品与养老制度安排之间的内在联系等方面的问题，而养老金制度改革过程中一些更深层次的结构性因素，至今尚未受到明显的关注。将养老金结构与金融结构相结合，来剖析二者之间的相互影响及其共同演化过程，进而考察这种(可能的)互动关系将对一个最优的养老制度安排的形成产生何种影响的研究，似乎还有诸多有待解答的问题或值得改进之处。为此，本文选择以结构演变作为切入点或研究视角，关注人口老龄化背景下世界养老金制度改革的趋势以及养老金制度改革与金融发展的相互作用。结合社会人口结构演变过程中社会养老风险管理需求的变化，本文从金融功能观出发，以金融结构演化理论和风险管理理论为基础，搭建了养老金结构与金融结构互动关系的理论分析框架。进一步地，本文将养老金结构界定为公共养老金计划和私营养老金计划在养老金体系中的相对地位以及它们内部具体的养老金制度安排，并将养老金结构区分为养老金整体结构与私营养老金结构两个层面，分别从宏观和微观两个方面对养老金结构与金融结构的作用机理进行了分析，来探讨养老金体系与金融体系的相互作用以及一般演化规律。
通过对OECD国家特别是对美国、英国、日本以及欧洲地区养老金结构与金融结构的比较分析，本文发现养老金整体结构与金融结构以及私营养老金结构与金融结构之间存在明显的相关性。通过推演养老金整体结构与金融结构的作用过程，笔者发现：金融结构在很大程度上通过影响养老风险管理方式的选择决定了一国的养老金整体结构，一国金融结构的演化以及随之而来的风险管理功能的变化通过改变养老风险管理方式的选择持续推动着该国养老金体系的演化；另一方面，养老金整体结构也反作用于金融结构，私营养老金计划的发展通过改变居民储蓄模式和投资行为以及促进自治性养老基金的发展推动着金融市场的发展和壮大，导致金融体系由银行主导型向市场主导型的结构演变。同样地，在私营养老金结构与金融结构的作用过程中，一方面，金融结构决定私营养老金计划中金融机构的竞争态势；另一方面，私营养老金计划的发展促进了包括养老基金和人寿保险公司在内的契储型金融机构的快速发展，并直接影响着金融机构相对地位的变化，继而促进金融市场的发展。进一步考察私营养老金计划发展比较成熟的国家，其金融部门在养老产品和服务领域的金融创新，笔者验证了金融创新的“螺旋”发展以及金融机构和金融市场在创新过程中的竞合关系，一个自然的推论是，退休市场的金融创新必然推动金融结构的不断演化。此外，退休市场上的竞争环境也在很大程度上影响着养老产品金融创新的发展模式。
与OECD国家相比，我国的养老金结构和金融结构均表现出迥异的特性。体现在：公共养老金计划覆盖率低，私营养老金计划在养老金体系中的作用几乎可以忽略，因此正式的养老金制度并不能说明或解释我国的养老支持体系中的全部或大部分，还需要结合我国传统的家庭养老模式和东亚国家居民储蓄模式作进一步的解释；在金融系统中，结构上的不平衡存在于各个方面，最突出的表现为金融市场的不发达和银行系统的相对低效率。
总体上看，我国养老金结构与金融结构的相关性与OECD国家相比存在一些共性。然而，由于我国在经济发展水平、社会运行模式、政治制度体制、社会文化习俗等方面与OECD国家存在较大的差异，我国养老金结构与金融结构的相关性也具有一定的特殊性，这种特殊性体现在两个方面：一是我国公共养老金计划主导的养老金制度选择更具有“制度依赖性”，并不能直接地、自然而然地体现出养老金结构演变对养老风险管理模式的决定作用，而金融结构对养老金整体结构的决定作用则更多地表现为金融系统对我国私营养老金计划发展的掣肘；二是我国传统金融机构特别是人寿保险公司在私营养老金计划中的主导地位和产品结构反映出我国金融体系管理养老风险的整体能力还不理想。
人口结构变化持续推动着养老金制度改革的进程，也决定了养老金制度改革的方向，体现了养老金体系演变的相对独立性。同时，养老金制度改革的目标对金融体系的功能提出了更高的要求，这必将深深地影响金融体系长期的可持续发展。本文提出了养老金结构的概念，并尝试着从结构的视角来探寻养老金体系和金融体系的相关性。在功能观和金融中介理论的支撑下，从风险管理功能的演变和金融结构的演化等方面解释养老金结构和金融结构相互作用的一般规律和机理，从而实现研究视角的创新和理论研究的突破。
With the continuation of the pension reform, the discussion on the pension reform and the construction of pension system has been deeply carrying on. The priority of this research has also shifted from the argument which is better, pay-as-you-go or fund, to how to build a multi-level, multi-pillar and multi-mechanism accreted pension system. At the same time, more and more attention was paid to the corelation between pension system and financial system. The present research focuses on the impact of pension reform on the capital market and the internal connection between pension products and pension institutions. But the deeper structural determinants of pension reform haven't been given obvious concern. There may be many problems unsolved or left to be desired in how interactive relationship between the pension structure and the financial structure affects the formation of the optimal pension system after dissecting their interaction and mutual evolutionary process. Therefore, choosing structural evolution as a starting point or viewing angle, this paper researches the trend of pension reform in the world and the interaction of pension reform and financial development. Combined with the change of the demand of pension risk management and based on the theories of the financial structure evolvement and risk management, which all come from the functional perspective of finance, the paper has built the framework of theoretical analysis. This paper defines the pension structure as the relative position of the public pension plan and the private pension plan in pension system and the inner arrangements in the two kinds of pension plans. Further, the pension structure is divided into the overall pension structure and the private pension structure to generalize the evolutive rules of the pension structure and the financial structure, which act each other, from macro and micro angles respectively.
Through the comparative analysis of the pension structure and the financial structure in OECD countries, especially in US, UK, Japan and the countries in Europe, this paper finds that there are obvious relativities in the overall pension structure and the financial structure and in the private pension structure and the financial structure. Deducting the process in which the overall pension structure and the financial structure interact, we hold up the discoveries that: (Ⅰ)the financial structure largely determines the overall pension structure through affecting the choice how to manage pension risk, and the evolvement of the financial structure and the risk management function followed promote constantly the evolution of the pension system through changing the methods managing pension risk; (Ⅱ)the overall pension structure also reacts up on the financial structure, because the development of private pension plans will push the bank-oriented financial system to the market-oriented one through changing the household's saving and investment behavior and promoting the development of financial market, which is an inevitable consequence of the enlargement of automotive pension funds. Similarly, in the correction of the private pension structure and the financial structure, the financial structure determines the competition situation of financial institutions in retirement market, which has been defined as the main part of the private pension structure. On the other hand, the development of private pension plans also promotes the enlargement of financial market as the contractual savings grow fast. Further investigating the financial innovations in pension products and service in the countries whose private pension plans are more mature, we proved of the spiral development mode of financial system based on financial innovations of pension products and service and the relation including competition and cooperation between financial intermediary and financial market in this procession. So a natural inference is that the financial innovations in the retire market will inevitablely promote the evolution of the financial structure. In addition, the competition environment in retirement market also in large extent influences the patterns of financial innovation.
Compared with the OECD countries, China's the pension structure and financial structure are showing different characteristics, which are embodied in the following aspects: (Ⅰ)the coverage of the public pension plans is low, and the role of private pension plans in the pension system is almost negligible, so the formal pension institutions can't explain the most income which the retirees live on, which is interpreted by China's traditional family pension model and household savings model in East Asian countries; (Ⅱ)in the financial system, the structural unbalance exists in all aspects, the most outstanding one among which is the underdevelopment of financial market and the relatively low efficiency in bank industry.
In general, there are many common characters between China and the OECD countries in the correction of the financial structure and the pension structure. However, due to the large differences in economic development, social operation model, political system and cultural customs etc., there are many pecularities in China. We can see from the two following aspects: one is our the selection of pension institutions which possesses more character of "institutional dependency", and the determinative role of the evolvement of the pension structure on the choice of pension risk management mode can't directly be embodied, but the determinative role of the financial structure on overall the pension structure registers as the restriction of our financial system to the development of our private pension plans; the other one is that the magistral situation and product structure of traditional financial institutions, especially insurers, reflect our financial system is not quick to manage pension risk.
The changes of population structure continue to push the process of pension reform and determine the direction of pension reform, and also reflect the relative independence of the evolution of a country's pension system. At the same time, the goal of pension reform sets forth higher requirement on the function of financial system and influences the sustainable development of the long-term financial system deeply. In this paper, we define the concept of the pension structure, and try to probe the correction between pension system and financial system from the structural view. Based on the theory of functional perspective of finance and the theory of financial intermediary, the general rules of the interaction between the pension structure and the financial structure are explained from the evolvement of the function of risk management and the financial structure to make the innovation of the angles of research and the breakthrough of theoretical research.
引文
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