基于循环经济理念的黑龙江省土地可持续利用研究
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摘要
土地作为人类赖以生存和发展的重要资源和物质基础,越发受到人们的关注,土地资源在人类社会发展中不但承担着生产与承载功能,而且对社会经济的发展起到了重要的支撑与调控作用,在一定程度上土地利用方式能映射出一个国家或地区社会经济发展的模式,不同的经济发展模式,其区域土地利用方式也是有很大的差别。传统的直线型经济发展模式,客观的造成了土地利用方式的粗放化,建设用地扩张的高速化和土地生态环境的不断恶化,同时根据德国乌柏研究所(Wuppertal Institute)前任主席魏兹舍克提出的四倍数效应,若不改善技术,全球有限资源50年内将以每年2.8%的速度下降,所以资源生产力必须在50年内提高四倍才能满足社会经济的发展需要。所以进入21世纪以来,各国普遍关注低碳经济的发展和以土地为代表的自然资源的节约利用,以及生态环境的保护与治理,相继展开了循环经济的研究。循环经济以物质闭流循环为特征,强调环境保护和经济发展的内在统一,本着减量化、再循环与再利用的“3R”原则发展经济,它不但是对传统经济模式的变革,其基本理念对土地可持续利用理念的革新和土地利用方式的转变也具有很强的导向作用。本文正是从循环经济对土地可持续利用的导向作用出发,以黑龙江省为例,全面展开基于循环经济理念的黑龙江省土地可持续利用的研究。
     黑龙江省位于我国的东北边陲,耕地、林地等农地资源丰富,社会经济处在全国的中游水平,主要以粮食生产和重型工业为主。全省13个地市区中资源型地市就有7个,长时期的资源开发与重型工业发展造成黑龙江省土地利用集约程度不高,城镇工矿等建设用地扩张较快,农村居民点用地较为粗放,农用地利用的干扰因素较多,土地生态环境受到一定程度的破坏。本文立足于循环经济理念在黑龙江省土地可持续利用中的导向作用,从黑龙江省土地资源利用的基本情况和特点出发,一方面通过基于循环经济理的土地可持续利用指标体系的建立,具体分析评价1996—2007年间黑龙江省基于循环经济理念的土地可持续利用情况;另一方面基于循环经济理念对黑龙江省土地利用结构进行优化,并对未来一段时期内黑龙江省基于循环经济理念的土地可持续利用情况进行合理的预测,近而提出基于循环经济理念的黑龙江省土地可持续利用的战略重点、模式及相关的调控机制与关键措施。本文的研究目的一是通过分析评价认清基于循环经济理念的黑龙江省土地可持续情况;二是结合循环经济理念对黑龙江省土地利用结构进行优化;三是对未来一段时期内黑龙江省基于循环经济理念的土地可持续利用情况进行合理的预测,并提出相应的基于循环经济理念的黑龙江省土地可持续利用的战略措施,以利于黑龙江省在新时期、新形势下土地可持续利用政策的制定。
     本文首先根据土地利用变化模型对研究区1996-2007年的土地利用变化与过程进行了分析,重点分析了土地利用数量变化、土地利用程度变化、土地利用结构变化、土地利用过程中的生态服务价值和生态承载力的变化。土地利用数量变化的特点是建设用地、耕地、其他农用地和林地的面积呈增加趋势,草地和未利用地的面积有所减少。从土地利用程度变化来看,其土地利用整体处在发展期。而土地利用信息熵呈现先上涨后下降的趋势,土地利用多样性也呈现一种先提高后有序调整适度集中的趋势。在11年间,生态服务价值减少了39.12亿元,年均减少3.56亿元,年均减少率为0.07%,同时,人均生态承载力也略有下降。
     在对土地利用动态变化情况全面分析的基础上,从自然、社会经济、政策和技术等方面对研究区土地可持续利用的相关影响因素进行了定性和定量的分析,从分析中可见,在短期内社会经济因素还是影响土地可持续利用的主要因素。结合土地可持续利用影响因素的分析,本文将循环经济理念与土地可持续利用的关系作为切入点,从社会经济发展、土地资源投入减量化、土地污染废弃物减量排放、土地资源再利用和土地资源安全保障五方面构建基于循环经济的黑龙江省土地可持续利用综合评价体系,同时,采用物元可拓模型,因素贡献率评价,障碍因素诊断和DEA分析等方法,对研究区1996—2007年土地综合可持续利用情况和农地可持续利用情况进行了全面的分析评价。1996—2007年间,基于循环经济理念的黑龙江省土地综合可持续利用情况良好,评价等级都在基本可持续等级水平,同时,农地可持续利用等级也都在基本可持续等级水平,而且两者的可持续利用水平呈现逐年提高的趋势,分别年均提高11.0和3.8个数量级。从因素贡献水平来看,在土地可持续利用综合评价方面,社会经济发展和土地资源再利用的因素贡献率基本保持稳定,土地污染废弃物减量排放和土地资源安全保障的因素贡献率趋于下降,土地资源投入减量化的贡献率有所上升;在农用地可持续利用评价方面,农业经济发展和农地资源再利用的因素贡献率有所提高,农地资源投入减量化和农地资源安全保障的因素贡献率有一定程度的下降。从障碍因素诊断来看,现阶段单位建设用地固定资产投资,单位城镇建设用地第三产业产值、单位耕地农药使用量和农民人均收入等是制约土地可持续利用的主要障碍因素。通过建设用地和农用地经济投入产出的DEA分析发现,1997—1999年,2001和2002年黑龙江省建设用地的投入产出没有达到综合技术效率有效;而1991、1993、1994、2005和2006年黑龙江省都不同程度的存在耕地面积的投入冗余。同时,全省各地区基于循环理念的土地可持续情况也表现出一定的差异性,哈尔滨市土地可持续利用综合评价结果相对较高,其次为大庆市,较低的是佳木斯市、七台河和双鸭山市,其他地市评价情况处在中游水平,但整体水平不高;鸡西市基于循环经济理念的农地可持续利用在全省处在相对较高的水平,齐齐哈尔和黑河两地市农地可持续利用水平较省内其他地市较低,其它各地市的农地可持续利用的水平总体相差不大。
     在对土地可持续利用情况进行分析评价的基础上,采用灰色多目标规划方法,借助WINQSB2.0软件,基于循环经济理念对黑龙江省土地利用结构进行了分析优化,分别得到了以生态建设与中低产田改造为主、生态建设与耕地保护兼顾、耕地适度增长和耕地开发与生态建设四个有一定比较优势的土地利用结构方案,并通过综合效益的评定,选取耕地开发与生态建设方案作为2020年基于循环经济理念的黑龙江省土地利用结构优化的最优方案。
     根据土地利用结构优化方案,并通过灰色预测和趋势推算等方法对评价指标体系中相关因素进行预测的基础上,对黑龙江省2010、2020和2030年土地可持续利用和农地可持续利用发展趋势进行了分析预测,结果表明,黑龙江省基于循环经济理念的土地可持续利用水平是不断提高的,2010年处在基本可持续利用水平,2020年和2030年将达到中可持续水平,到2030年黑龙江省社会经济的发展是推动土地资源可持续利用的主要驱动因素,同时主要障碍因素也向土地资源投入减量化和土地污染废弃物减量排放方面转移;农用地评价结果与土地综合评价结果基本类似,随着农业经济发展障碍度的不断下降,农地资源减量化投入和农地资源再利用的障碍度有所提升。
     在对黑龙江省土地可持续利用情况进行分析、评价、诊断、预测和土地利用结构优化的基础上,根据黑龙江省农地资源丰富,土地利用结构多样等特点和建设用地集约利用水平较低,土地灾害面积较大,治理困难等问题,以循环经济理念为统领,构建了基于循环农业的农地利用战略,基于循环经济理念的建设用地结构优化战略,土地整理复垦战略和土地生态环境安全战略等土地利用战略模式,并相应提出了农地用养结合,以地养地和易地开发等保障机制和以循环经济为导向制定适合的土地利用规划,建立全省的土地循环再利用体系和建立土地灾害治理的制度化体系等保障措施。
People now pay more attentions on land as it is an important resource and physical foundation for mankind's survival and development. Land resource has the ability of productivity and supporting capacity in the development of human society; it also supports and controls the economic development. In a way the patterns of land use can reflect the mode of economic development in a country. Different mode of economic development has different way in its region land use. Traditional linear pattern of economic development objectively caused extensive growth of land use, high speed expand of construction land use and deterioration of ecological environment. According to four multiplier affect put forward by former Chairman of the German Wuppertal Institute, without improving technology, the world's limited resources will descend at a rate of 2.8% per year within 50 years. Therefore, resource productivity must be increased by four times in 50 years, in order to corresponding to the social and economic development needs. Since 21st century, every country has been paid close attention to low carbon economy development, economic use of natural resource and protection, and controlling of ecological environment and has started circular economy research. The circular economy takes material flowing in closed loop as characteristics and emphasizes intrinsic unification of the environmental protection and the economic development, to develop economy based on the "3R" principles of reduction, recycling and reuse. So it is a revolution to traditional economic mode and has a strong guiding effect on the principles and ways of sustainable land use. This article will starts with the guidance function of circular economy on the lands sustainable use, it takes Heilongjiang Province as an example, and shows how comprehensively there has been an increase in the study of sustainable land use based on the concept of circular economy in Heilongjiang province.
     Heilongjiang Province is on the boarder of north part of China. It has plenty of arable, agricultural, and forest land, and lives on grain production and heavy industry which its social economy is in the middle level. Heilongjiang Province has 13 districts, 7 of them are resource based. However its intensive land use is not in a high level since longtime resource exploitation and heavy industry development, which also led to high speed expanding of industrial and mining construction land, extensive growth of rural residential land use, too many interference factors to agriculture land use, as well as damage to ecological balance of land. This article is established in the guide effect of circular economy on sustainable land use in Heilongjiang Province and based on the unique characteristics of land use. On the one hand, index system of sustainable land use on circular economy principle will build up to analyze and evaluate situations of sustainable land use in Heilongjiang Province between 1996 and 2007. On the other hand, optimize land use structure in Heilongjiang Province based on circular economy principle and to get a reasonable trend forecast as well, and bring up the strategic keystone, strategic modes, regulations and key measures of sustainable land use based on circular economy principle. For this reason, this article has got three research purposes: first, by analysis and evaluation, to realize sustainable land use situation with circular economy idea; second, to optimize land use structure in Heilongjiang province combined with circular economy principle; third, to get a reasonable trend forecast to the development trend of Heilongjiang Province’s land sustainable use and to propose the strategic measures of sustainable land use in Heilongjiang province based on circular economy principle in order to make it easier to draw up some relevant land use policy for Heilongjiang Province in a new period or new state. This article firstly analyzes changes and processes of land use for the research area between 1996 and 2007 according to the mode of changing land use. Analysis highlight changes in land use quantity, extent, and structure, as well as the ecology service value and ecology supporting capacity. Result shows that the amount change of construction land, arable land, other agricultural land and forest land have increased trend, whilst the grassland and unused land area has decreased. In terms of extent of land use, the land exploitation is just at developing stage. However, the land use information entropy shows a downward trend after the first rise trend, and land-use diversity also shows an orderly adjustment and a moderate concentration of the trend after the first increase trend. The value of ecosystem services reduced to 3.912 billion Yuan, with an annual reduction of 356 million Yuan, an average annual reduction rate of 0.07% during 11 years, while the per capita ecological carrying capacity has slightly decreased.
     Based on the across-the-aboard analysis of changes and processes of land use, from natural, social economy, policy and technology sides, this article analyzes status of sustainable land use of researched area by quantitative and qualitative methods. The results shows that for now the key factor for influencing sustainable land use is still social economy factors. After analyzing the influencing factors for sustainable land use, the breaking through point is the connection of circular economy and sustainable land use. Based on this point, this article build up land sustainable use synthetic evaluation index system from five aspects which are social-economic development, quantity reduction in land resource investment, reducing discharges of land pollution waste, land resource re-use and safety control. At the same time, reviews from matter-element model, contribution rate of factors, obstacles analysis and DEA analysis, this article analyzes and evaluates the integrative condition of sustainable land use and agriculture land use from 1996 to 2007. The results displays that the integrative condition of sustainable land use in Heilongjiang Province is in good level and the evaluated degree is also in basic sustainable level, so as sustainable use of agriculture land. Meanwhile they are both in an increased trend which is increased by 11 and 3.8 magnitudes respectively. For contribution rate of factors, from the overall evaluation, the rates of social economic development and re-use of land resource keep fundamentally steady and the rates of reducing discharges of land pollution and land safety control drop down, and the rates of reduction in land investment climb up. Then from the evaluation of agriculture land sustainable use, the rates for agriculture economy development and re-use of agriculture land climb up, but the contribution rates of reduction in agriculture land investment and safety control drop down in some part. For obstacle factor analysis, the main obstacles that affect land sustainable use are fixed assets investment in unit construction land, output value of third industry on urban construction land use, pesticide amount in unit arable land and income per head of farmer. The results of DEA analysis on both input-output of construction land and agriculture land reveals that the output of construction land in Heilongjiang Province is not in efficient level from1997 to1999 and between 2001 and 2002. Meanwhile the investments in agriculture land are redundant in the year of 1991, 1993, 1994, 2005 and 2006. At the mean time the evaluation varies in sustainable land use in different region of Heilongjiang Province based on the circular economy principle, Harbin city got the highest level, then Daqing city, the lowest is Jiamusi city, Qitaihe city and Shuangyashan City, others are in middle level but the integral level is low. In addition, evaluations are different in agriculture land use based on circular economy. Jixi city has a comparatively high level but Qiqihaer city and Heihe city are lower, and other cities are in similar level.
     Furthermore, baesd on the analysis and evaluation of sustainable land use situation, by adapting grey multi-object planning methods and with the help of WINQSB2.0 software to optimizing the land use structure of Heilongjiang Province based on the principle of circulation economy. The analysis leading to four structural concepts which have comparative advantages are: first, mainly focus on improving Ecological construction and Medium and low yield fields; second, give both ecological construction and protect and cultivated land consideration; third, increase cultivated land; fourth, cultivated land development. Moreover by evaluation of synthetical benefit, the sixth project is as the most preponderance project for optimization of the land use structure of Heilongjiang Province based on the principle of circulation economy in 2020.
     Then, by the project of optimization of the land use structure and with utilizing Grey Analysis and trend prediction methods, the development trend of Heilongjiang Province’s land sustainable use and agriculture land sustainable use in year 2010, 2020 and 2030 has been analyzed and forecasted. The result shows that the level of sustainable land use based on the principle of circular economy principle had been constantly improving: In 2010 it will at the basic level of sustainable utilization; from 2020 to 2030 it will reach the medium sustainable utilization level; by the year 2030, social and economic development will be the major driving factor of utilizing land resources sustainably, at the meantime, the intervening obstacles will be shifting towards reducing the input of land resource and discharge of land pollution. Similar to the land integrative evaluation results, the agriculture land evaluation result showed that, as there is being fewer and fewer obstacles in the development of agricultural economy, it is getting more difficult in the implementation of agriculture land resource reduction and reuse.
     Finally, by the analysis, evaluation, diagnosis and forecast of sustainable land use situation and optimization of the land use structure, based on the features that Heilongjiang is rich in agriculture land resources, diverse in land use structure; also based on the issues such as the level of construction land intensive use is relatively low, the area of land disaster is relatively large, and difficult to manage, lead by the theory of circular economy, the research constructs a series of land use strategic modes which include: the agriculture land use strategy based on circular agriculture; construction land structure optimization strategy based on circular economy principle; land arrangement reclamation strategy and land eco-system safety strategy. Ultimately, the research proposed guarantee mechanism such as integrating agriculture land use and maintenance,‘feeding’land with land and land exchange exploitation, etc. and protection measures such as land-circulation-reuse system and land disaster management system for the whole province.
引文
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