摘要
从贷款银行的角度，目前四川省的高速公路贷款项目几乎都不成功。完工的20条高速公路银行投放了总共约200亿元贷款，但目前仅有一两条高速公路能够及时支付贷款利息，更谈不上偿还贷款本金。与此相反，实施先进的项目风险管理的世界银行在其投入的几百个高速公路贷款项目中却都取得了成功，可见这在很大程度上在于落后的项目风险管理所致。在国际上，对项目进行风险管理已成为项目管理重要的方面，许多项目管理专家认为风险管理是项目成功与否的关键。项目风险管理不仅对于银行贷款资产安全具有重要的现实意义，而且这种科学管理方法的推广运用，有利于提高银行其他资产的风险管理水平。但目前省内高速公路贷款项目风险管理却是一个极其薄弱的环节，运用项目风险管理的理论和方法对其进行研究以提高风险管理水平是十分必要的
本文首先详细论述了项目风险管理的过程、方法和技术，并从贷款银行的角度，以世界银行高速公路贷款项目风险管理的先进做法为切入点，全面剖析了目前四川省高速公路贷款项目六大管理活动中风险管理落后的现状与不足，并通过对比的方式，研究分析了其项目风险管理落后的原因—缺乏系统的项目风险管理理论、方法的运用。在此基础上，重点围绕风险识别—量化—响应—控制的基本风险管理过程及项目风险管理的各种先进方法和技术，主要采用实证分析的方法，
对四川省高速公路贷款风险管理实践进行了深入的探讨，并进一步探讨了如何从风险管理组织机构、人力资源、项目章程、项目干系人等方面提高我省高速公路贷款项目风险管理水平，结合项目风险管理理论和方法在我省高速公路贷款项目风险管理中的实践，建立了我省高速公路贷款项目一套完整的、科学的风险管理体系。
另外，在实证分析过程中，创新地运用先进的项目管理的理论和技术以及统计学、运筹学、计算机等方面的知识，对我省高速公路贷款项目风险进行了大量定量分析。结合实际提出了四川省高速公路贷款项目应实施全面风险管理的理念；着力研究了风险管理的一些具体方法，为我省高速公路贷款项目风险管理建立了一些参考性的模板，并从项目管理软件、项目风险信息系统等方面提出了一些风险管理的建设性思路。
本文对四川省高速公路风险管理进行了较全面的、系统的研究和探索，并建立了相应的项目风险管理体系，旨在对贷款银行的风险管理提供一个有价值的参考性框架和一些具体策略，使贷款银行的项目管理活动更加规范化、科学化、程序化，以降低项目风险、提高项目成功率，确保银行贷款的安全。
With regard to the loan bank, presently, highway loan in Sichuan province's has been scarcely successful. Altogether the banks have spent 20 billions on 20 completed highway constructions, yet till now, only one or two highways could pay off the loan interest in time, not to mention the pay-off of the loan principal. On the contrary, the world bank, which enforces advanced project risk management, has been quite successful in hundreds of highways loan programs; therefore, Sichuan's backward risk management is to blame to a large extent. Globally, enforcement on the risk management has become an crucial part of program management; a lot of management experts regard the risk management as essential to a successful program. Not only does the risk management carry much practical significance to the safety of bank loan and property, the wide application of this scientific manage approach also benefits banks to promote other risk management on other property. Due to that the management on highway loan projects in Sichuan is faulty and weak, it is extremely necessary to employ the risk management theory and
application in order to promote the risk management.
From aspect of the loan banks, with the reference from the advanced management of the world bank, this thesis first detailed the process, the method and the technique of risk management, and makes a thorough analysis on the current deficiency of six highway loan programs in Sichuan. The author also elaborates on the reasons for the backwards of management through comparison -that is , lack of systematic theory and approaches on the risk management. On basis of that, the author focuses on the procedure of identification-measurement-feedback-controlling, by largely adopting solid evidence method in analyzing, the author makes a probe into the fulfillment of risk management of highways in Sichuan, and further studies how to promote risk manage through organization, human resource, project constitution, project implication and etc, by connecting the theory and approaches in the practice of risk management in Sichuan, and then establish a set of integrated, scientific risk management system for highway loan programs in Sichuan.
Moreover, in the process of analyzing the solid evident, the thesis creatively takes advantages of advanced theories, technique, covariance, the strategies, and does lots of quantity quantitative analyses on the risk of highway loan project in Sichuan.
By uniting the practice, the thesis presents the ideology of complete realization of risk management on highway loan programs, and carefully
examines several concrete solutions of risk management, then puts forth some reference templates for risk management of highway loan projects. It also brings up some constructive approaches for project risk management from the aspects of management software, risk information system and etc.
In order to provide the loan bank with a valuable reference of item risk management system, to ensure the bank loans more standard, scientific, and formal, and to loan the loan risk, to boost the loan success rate, to guarantee the safety of the bank loan, this article makes a thorough, systematic research and investigation on the risk management of highway loan project in Sichuan province, and establishes a corresponding system of risk management.
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