摘要
从20世纪70年代以来,随着经济全球化和和金融全球化进程的不断加快,金融业面临的竞争环境日趋复杂化和激烈化,全球银行业掀起了新一轮的兼并和收购浪潮,银行业市场结构不断优化。与此同时,电子信息化和金融创新使银行机构有更多机会从事风险投资活动,经营风险不断加大,导致银行业脆弱性日益增加,银行危机发生的频率和范围呈显著上升趋势。我国的金融体系是银行主导型金融体系,以银行为主的间接融资方式占我国融资方式的主导地位。我国在历次金融危机中都保持了较强的抵抗冲击的能力,使得我国实体经济得以持续快速发展。但未来随着中国金融业所处的宏观发展环境的变化,其面临的风险也会更加复杂化,如何调整银行业结构以维护金融体系的稳定和发展,对于中国经济能否继续稳定发展意义重大。现有文献对银行业市场结构与金融稳定的研究大部分是基于发达国家的实践展开的,对中国银行业市场结构与金融稳定的研究还较少,因此分析中国银行业市场结构对金融稳定的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文以产业组织理论、银行产业组织理论为基础,运用计量经济学的基本分析工具对中国银行业市场结构对金融稳定的影响进行了理论与实证研究。首先,论文对典型国家银行业市场结构变化对金融稳定的影响进行了分析并得出重要启示,为下面的理论分析提供了重要的实践检验和经验支持。其次,分别运用结构主义和非结构主义方法对中国银行业总体市场结构和省际及东中西部地区银行业市场结构差异以及金融稳定状况进行了衡量。接着探讨了银行业市场结构影响金融稳定的作用机制,银行业市场结构主要通过对银行业自身效率、货币政策传导机制和操作工具、银行监管目标和监管方式、外资银行进入动机和进入模式四个方面的影响作用于金融稳定。在理论分析的基础上,对中国银行业市场结构对金融稳定的影响进行实证研究,分析了中国银行业市场结构与金融稳定长期与短期所表现出的关系特征,并从中小企业融资角度提出了我国最优银行业结构的路径选择。最后,提出优化银行业市场结构促进金融稳定的对策建议。
通过理论研究和实证检验,本文得到的主要结论如下：(1)对我国银行业市场结构总体状况的衡量,无论是采用结构主义还是非结构主义方法,结果都表明：我国银行业竞争程度在1986-2008年间得到显著加强,但在考察不同的市场时,银行业竞争程度的变化有所不同。(2)我国银行业市场结构在省际之间和东、中、西部之间都存在着显著的差距。各省区间贷款市场的竞争强度的差异要大于存款市场,我国的银行业市场结构改革效果在存款市场上政策效果明显,而在各地区贷款市场之间不具同步性。东部地区银行业市场竞争程度高于全国和中、西部银行业市场,中部地区内部银行业市场结构已呈现较微弱的趋同现象,而东、西部地区内部银行业市场竞争程度的地区差异越来越大。(3)运用计量分析法对我国金融稳定状况的衡量结果表明：1986-2008年间,我国金融体系没有出现高度不稳定的情况,基本上保持了稳定发展。(4)从理论上看,银行业市场结构影响金融稳定的传导机制是：通过银行自身效率和竞争程度的改变直接作用于金融稳定、通过宏观经济政策(货币政策和银行监管)和对外开放程度来间接影响一国的金融稳定。(5)中国银行业市场结构与金融稳定之间表现为长期的正向关系。从长期来看,银行业竞争程度的提高,伴随着我国金融体系稳定性趋势的增强。如果金融稳定与银行结构之间处于非均衡状态,将以一定的调整比率回到均衡状态,银行业结构对金融稳定的影响存在着滞后现象。(6)从中小企业融资角度分析,国有商业银行垄断的打破和银行业市场竞争的增强,并没有改变原来的银行业规模分工格局,中小企业依然还是从中小金融机构获得贷款,而大银行对中小金融机构的贷款非但没有增加,还呈现出下降趋势。在我国目前经济发展阶段中,主要能为中小企业提供融资服务的还是地方性的中小银行,中小金融机构市场份额的上升更有利于金融稳定。
本文尝试在以下四个方面能有所创新：(1)分别运用结构主义和新产业组织理论衡量方法对我国银行业市场总体结构和竞争状况进行多角度考察。(2)尝试将综合差异指标运用于银行业市场结构区域差异分析上,考察了我国省际间和东中西部地区内部银行业市场结构竞争程度的差异化。(3)从产业层面深入分析了银行业市场结构影响金融稳定的机理。分别从银行微观效率层面和货币政策、金融监管、对外开放三个宏观层面提出银行业市场结构影响金融稳定的机理,并对此进行了实证检验。(4)从金融稳定的微观基础中小企业融资角度分析了金融稳定下我国最优银行业市场结构。
the global economic has changed significantly since the1970s, and the process of financial globalization is accelerating. On the one hand the Market structure of banking industry is Improving, on the other hand, competition is more intense. banking institutions take more risk to increase revenue, the increasing risk make the bank more Vulnerable, the frequency and scope of banking crisis was on a significant upward.China's financial system is based on bank system, bank-based financing dominate in China's financial system.china has resisted the financial shocks though the previous financial crisis, making sure the real economy can develop sustainable and rapidly.With the developing of macro-environment in China's financial sector In the future, the risks will be more complex. It is significant to adjust the structure of the banking industry to it in order to maintain financial stability and development. Most of the studies in Previous literature are on based on developed countries in this aspect, rarely based on china. So it has important theoretical and practical significance to study China's banking market structure on financial stability effect.
The paper carries out theoretically and empirically researches on the effect on Chinese banking market structure to the financial stability, Based on industrial organization theory, bank industrial organization theory, and the econometric as analysis tools. Firstly, the paper analyzes impact of financial stability to banking market structure in typical countries, then give important support for the following theoretical analysis. Secondly, the paper measured the Chinese banking market structure and financial stability by means of structuralism and non-structuralism approach. Then the paper explored mechanism on the impact of to financial stability, there are mainly four aspects On which banking market structure has impact effect on financial stability:the efficiency of operation of banking industry, transmission mechanisms and tools of monetary policy, the target and method of banking supervision and regulation, the motivation and models of access from foreign banks'entering, after the theoretical analysis, the paper carries out empirical research on the China's banking market structure's impact on the financial stability. The paper also does empirical analysis on the impact on the characteristics shown both in long-term and short-term using of econometric methods.Then it proposes optimal path selection of the banking structure in the SMEs' financing. Finally, the paper proposed countermeasures to improve banking market structure and promote the financial stability.
Through theoretical research and empirical testing, the main conclusions of the paper are as follows:(1) the measure to China's banking market structure results that:Overall, the competition in China's banking industry has increased a lot, both from market concentration of structuralism and from PR of the Herfindahl index of non-structuralism.(2) There is a significant gap between provinces of China and eastern, central and western of the country in China's banking market structure. The competition strength in loan market is greater than that of deposit market in provinces of China, and the reform of Chinese banking market structure effects on the policy of deposit market very well, but it is in a non-synchronisation stage to loan market of each part of China. The competition in banking market of eastern part is greater than that of national, central and western market, the banking market structure has shown a weak sign of convergence in the middle part of the country internally, but the regional differences are more and more bigger to internal competition in eastern and western China.(3) The measure the state of financial stability shows that:During1986-2008, China's financial system is not a highly unstable situation, it basically develop smoothly using of quantitative analysis method.(4)In theory, the transmission system of financial stability affected by banking marketing structure is that it directly affects financial stability through the changes of bank self-efficiency and competition level and it indirectly influence the national financial stability through Macro-economic policy (monetary policy and bank supervision) and the degree of openness.(5) long-term positive relationship is shown between China's banking industry market structure and financial stability. with the growing of banking Competition China's financial system will be more stable In the long run. If they are in the non-equilibrium state, they will adjust back to a certain equilibrium at some ratio, and the banking structure lag to financial stability on the impact.(6) Analysis, breaking of the monopoly of state-owned commercial banks and enhanced competition in banking markets dont change the original scale division of labor in banking industry. SMEs still obtain loans from small and medium-sized financial institutions, while large bank loans to SMEs is not only increased, but also shows a downward trend.Small and medium financial institutions increasing market share is more conducive to financial stability in current stage of economic development.
This paper attempts to be innovative in the following three aspects:(1) combining the structuralism with way of measure of new industrial theory, multi-perspective studing the chinese banking market structure and competition changes.(2) Try to apply comprehensive difference index to banking industry market structure analysis of the regional differences, inspected our country province and east center-west region internal market structure of banking industry competition degree difference.(3) analyzing the mechanism of the banking market structure effect on the financial stability from the industrial aspect, setting up mechanism of the banking market structure affect on the financial stability from the bank Micro-level efficiency, and three macro-dimensions including monetary policy, financial regulation, opening-up respectively, and have an empirical test on them.(4) Analyze Optimal banking market structure under financial stability based on SMEs financing perspective
引文
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