摘要
中国素有“世界水果王国”的美称，几乎所有种类的水果都有出产，自上世纪九十年代，水果产业进入了一个崭新的发展阶段，无论是水果种植面积还是总产量都实现了历史性飞跃，作为劳动密集型产业已成为种植业中仅次于粮食、蔬菜后的第三大支柱产业。特别是温带、亚热带干鲜水果(例如苹果、柑橘、梨、葡萄、栗子等)享誉世界。进入21世纪以来，不仅水果产量始终保持世界首位，而且对外贸易也获得了长足进步。尤其是加入WTO以后，中国水果对外贸易步入了一个快速增长阶段，2011年水果出口总额达31.88亿美元，比2002年增长了474.96%，年平均增长速度达19.12%。不过，中国水果出口贸易结构还不尽合理，首先表现为出口的品种结构不合理，出口品种过于单一、优质高档果率不高，缺乏市场势力（市场定价和抵御市场风险的能力）；其二是市场结构不合理，表现为出口市场分布过于集中，主要集中在东盟、俄罗斯、日本、欧盟、美国等国家和地区，但欧美主流水果消费市场占有率偏低；其三是水果加工结构不合理，表现为水果的加工和处理程度偏低，导致水果出口的附加值较低。其四是产业化结构不合理，表现为农民组织化程度低、龙头企业规模小、数量少，产业带动能力不够，很难实现产、运、贮、销一体化，消弱了终端产品的竞争力。贸易结构是产业结构的反映，中国之所以是水果生产大国但不是贸易强国，主要问题就在于产业结构不合理。
本研究的意义和价值在于：首先，2010年CAFTA全面启动后，中国与东盟果蔬实现零关税，通过深化水果产业结构和市场势力的研究，无疑，会极大促进中国水果贸易的快速发展。其二，水果生产是劳动密集型产业，中国拥有丰富的劳动力资源，是包括西方发达国家在内很多水果生产大国无法比拟的资源优势。通过深化贸易结构的研究，做大做强水果贸易，不仅有利于农民大幅增收而且有利于农村剩余劳动力的合理转移。再次，水果生产是中国的优势产业，贸易前景广阔。水果作为植物性易腐食品，距离因素是一种天然的贸易壁垒，中国与周边许多国家在水果生产上具有很强的互补性。通过深化贸易结构的研究，促进产业结构的优化，才能将产业优势转化为贸易优势，进而带动整个产业不断快速发展。第四，产业结构是贸易结构的基础，中国经济已步入了产业结构转型的发展阶段，产业结构调整应当以整个社会需求为导向，不仅要考虑国内市场需求，更要考虑到日益全球化的国际市场需求。以国际市场需求为导向的核心就是依据国际市场结构来调整生产与贸易结构，从而优化产业结构。本研究通过实证分析中国水果贸易发展现状，分别从需求、结构、竞争力三个纬度探寻中国水果贸易在主要出口市场增长及变动的原因，洞察主要水果出口品种的市场势力，找出产业结构存在于出口产业链各环节上的主要问题，构建一种具有竞争力的、能够保持贸易快速增长的水果产业结构。本研究有利于从结构优化角度探讨如何促进中国水果贸易快速发展、国际竞争力不断提升的可行途径，为产业升级、农民增收、食品安全，为整个国民经济的平稳健康发展做出贡献，对政府相关部门和企业发展水果产业、制定水果贸易的决策规划有重要参考价值。
本研究基本思路是，在明晰国际贸易相关理论的基础上，对中国水果产业及贸易发展现状进行总体分析。运用CMS模型对中国水果产品在各主要出口市场增长波动的原因及其影响因素进行了比较分析。利用引力模型和剩余需求弹性模型对影响中国主要出口水果的贸易流向的主要因素和目标市场国的市场势力进行了实证分析。在分析水果出口贸易主要影响因素的基础上，利用回归与ARMA组合模型预测了水果的产销趋势变化。把国际贸易学、产业经济学、区域经济学、管理学、园艺学、食品加工学、统计学有机结合，对中国水果的产业结构和贸易结构进行了深入系统的研究。
本研究主要内容和观点是：
（1）中国水果产业发展及结构变化分析
首先从资源禀赋的角度对中国水果产业发展现状展开分析，分别从自然资源条件，产量、品种结构、生产布局、果品加工及贸易地位，分析中国水果的发展状况。然后从贸易结构角度，对中国水果出口的结构特征及出口市场的依赖性展开分析。着重探讨中国水果在资源禀赋、产品结构、贸易结构与主要出口市场的需求变化情况，找出水果出口的主要和潜在市场。
（2）中国水果在主要出口市场的贸易及结构演进分析
首先利用恒定市场份额模型对中国水果产品在各主要市场的出口变动展开分析，着重从需求、结构、竞争力的三维视角分析在东盟、俄罗斯、日本、美国、欧盟的出口变动情况及其原因，然后着重探讨中国的水果生产与出口是否集中在世界需求增长较快的产品上；出口去向是否集中在那些需求高速增长的国家和地区。
（3）中国主要出口水果的贸易流向及其国际市场势力分析
贸易结构变化的主要决定因素可以分为供给的要素增长、需求的收入增长、贸易壁垒变化、运输条件的改善等方面，通过构建水果出口的贸易引力模型，分析价格、质量、GDP、人口、双边汇率及贸易距离等影响中国水果出口贸易的主要因素及影响程度，然后挑选具有贸易优势的市场，通过构建以价格为中心的国际市场势力(Goldberg&Knetter)模型，测算并分析中国水果产品在主要出口市场的市场势力及其地位，通过市场势力对出口商品结构变迁的作用，不断提高出口果品的品质，优化果品出口结构。
（4）中国水果出口贸易的主要影响因素分析
影响中国水果出口贸易的因素有很多，概括起来可分为价格方面的因素和非价格方面的因素，也可以说是硬指标因素和软指标因素。硬指标因素主要是指价格、成本方面的因素，而软指标因素主要是指贸易壁垒的设置状况，水果种植的质量和安全状况、消费者需求变化、果农组织化程度等。通过深入剖析中国水果出口贸易的主要影响因素，才能为进一步把握水果贸易的发展趋势和提出有针对的优化策略打下坚实的基础。
（5）中国水果出口贸易的发展趋势及其优化策略
根据中国水果出口的主要市场（东盟、俄罗斯、日本、美国、欧盟等）和(苹果、梨果、柑桔、板栗等)主要出口品种的贸易历史发展情况，运用回归与ARMA组合模型，对今后水果出口市场及其品种的变化趋势进行了预测。从市场发展趋势和产业结构（生产结构、需求结构、加工结构、贸易结构、竞争力结构等）优化的角度提出做强做大水果贸易的措施和建议。
China has always enjoyed the reputation of The Kingdom of world fruit, almost all kindsof fruit can produce whatever the world can. Since1990s, Fruit Industry in China entered anew developing stage.Whether fruits planting area or product have a historic leap. As a labordenseness industry, Fruit Industry has become the third largest pillar industry following thegrains and vegetables in china's farming. Especially temperate and subtropical dry and freshfruit is world.famous（such as apple, pear, citrus, grape, chestnut and so on）.In21st century,the yields of fruit is always taking the first place, but also fruit trade has made considerableprogress. Especially after entering WTO, China fruit's foreign trade step into a phase of rapidgrowth. The value of fruit export in2011is3.188billion and has increased474.96%compared with2002, which has been increased by average9.4%every year. However,China's export structure of fruits still unreasonable. In the first place, display itself as exportvariety and structure unreasonable, such as single of export variety, the rate of high qualityand high grade fruit being not high, empty of market power (ability to market pricing and riskresistance).And the other is unreasonable market structure, which mainly manifested as thedistribution of export market is very centralized and mostly located in many countries andareas such as ASEAN, Russia, Japan, EU,USA. But the main consumption market occupancyof Europe and America is relatively low. Third is unreasonable structure of processing. Itmainly manifested as the degree of processing being relatively low, which leads to lowadditional value of fruit exports. Fourth is unreasonable industrialization structure. It is shownas the lower degree of organization of peasants, leading enterprises being in small scale andamount, industrial promoting capability being not enough. It is difficult to implementintegration of production, transport, storage and sale, which reduce product's competition.Trade structure is the reflection of industrial structure. The reason of China being the bigcountry of fruit production but not trade power is unreasonable industrial structure.
The meaning of the research is that firstly the overall start and implement of CAFTA in2010, the tariff of vegetable and fruit between China and CAFTA is reduced to zero, whichwill significantly promote the rapid development of the fruit trade. Secondly, fruit productionis labor intensive industry. China has rich labor resource, which is much more resourceadvantages than others in producing fruit including other developed countries. Throughdeepening research to trade structure for making fruit trade bigger and stronger,it is not onlybeneficial to peasants increasing income, but also a reasonable transfer of surplus labor forcein rural areas. Thirdly, fruit production is China's superior industry and trade prospect is board. Fruit as phytogenic food, distance factor is natural trade barriers. Between China andsurrounding Countries there is strong complementarity in terms of fruit production. Throughdeepening research to trade structure to optimize the construction of industry, we can changeindustrial advantage into trade one to promote the rapid development of the entireindustry.The fourth, industry structure is the foundation of trade structure. Chinese economyhas stepped into the developement of industrial structural transformation. Industrial structureadjustment should be demand oriented. What should be taken into consideration includes notonly domestic market demand but also an increasingly globalized international marketdemand. Core of international market demand oriented should adjust structure of productionand trade based on the international market structure to optimize industrial structure. Thisstudy was designed to makes an empirical analysis the Current Situation of China's fruit tradefrom demand，structure and competitiveness three dimensions to probe into the causes ofgrowth and changes about China's fruit trade, insight into the main variety of fruit exportmarket power and find the key problems of existing in export industry chain each link to buildup an industrial structure of competitive and rapid growth. The works are beneficial toexplores how to promote the rapid development of China's fruit trade and improve theinternational competitiveness from the structure optimization and make contribution toindustrial upgrading, peasants increase income, food safety, stable and healthy developmentof national economy and have great value for making decision and planning of fruit trade forrelated government department and enterprise.
This research's basic mentality is, on the basis of the related concepts of internationaltrade, to summerize and analyze the researches on present situation of the development ofChina's fruit trade and production, to makes a comparative analysis of the reason ofincreasing fluctuation and the influential elements of china's fruits export in target marketusing the CMS model, to makes use of the gravity model and residual demand elasticitymodel to analyze main influence factors of trade flow of apple and the global market power inmain target market，based on the changes of demand structure, trend of production andmarketing is predicted with using regression and arma model.
This dissertation aims at a profound and systematic study on the industrial and tradestructural of China's fruit by organic combination of methodologies including internationaltrade theory, industrial economics, regional economics, management,gardening, foodprocessing, statistics
This research's primary coverage and the viewpoint are:
（1）Change Analysis of supply and export structure of China's fruit
Above all, to analyze the researches on present situation of the development of China'sfruit Industry from the perspectives of resource endowment. To analyze the present situationof the development of China's fruit separately from natural resources condition, yield, varietystructure, production distribution, processing and production position in the world. Thenanalyze structural characteristics and relying on capital market of China's fruit from theperspectives of trade structure. Mainly discusses the change of the whole market and needsfor resource endowment, production structure, trade structure, main export market to findmain and potential market of fruit export
（2）Change Analysis of export marketing structure of China's fruit
Firstly, to analyze the researches on changes of export marketing structure of China'sfruit using the CMS model. Mainly discusses the change of from demand，structure andcompetitiveness three dimensions to probe into the causes of growth and changes in themarket of ASEAN, Russia, Japan, USA, EU. Then mainly discusses whether production andexport of China's fruit to concentrate in the products of world fruit demand growing quicklyand whether export of China's fruit to concentrate in the countries and regions of world fruitdemand growing quickly.
（3）analyze trade flow of primary export fruit and the global market power of China
The major determinant of trade structure change can be divided into the elements growthof supply, income growth of demand, change in the international trade barrier, improvementof transportation condition and other aspects. Through constructing the gravity model to makea analysis of main factors of China's fruit export including price, quality, GDP, population,bilateral exchange rate, distance etc.and influence degree. Then select the markets in whichhave trade advantage to calculate and analyze the market power and its status in main targetmarket through constructing residual demand elasticity model. Constantly improve the qualityof fruit export and optimize export structure through the impacts of export commoditystructure transition from market power.
（4）Analysis on the Main Influential Factors of China's fruit export
There are many factors which are related to China's fruit export. These factors may besummarized as follows: price factor and non price factor. We also believe the factor of hardindex and soft index. The factor of hard index refers to the price and cost. The factor of softindex mostly is the trade barrier, planting fruit of quality and safety, consumer demandchanging, organization degree of fruit grower and so on. Through deeply dissecting to the main influential factors of China's fruit export, lay a solid foundation for further grasping thedeveloping trends and put ting forward to optimization strategy.
（5）Analysis on evolution trend and optimizing strategy of China's fruit export
According to the historical development of the main markets of Chinese fruit export(ASEAN, Russia, Japan, USA, EU.) and several main export varieties(apple, citrus, pear,chestnut, etc.).Using regression and arma model,change trends of the main markets ofChinese fruit export and several main export varieties are forecasted. Measures andsuggestions to strength fruit trade are put forward from the perspective of marketdevelopment and industrial structure (production structure, demand structure, processing,trade structure) optimization.
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