多源数据融合的市县国土空间规划人口城镇化模式——以扬州市为例
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摘要
围绕"人、地、财"等新型城镇化三大核心问题,衍生出人口流动的社会、空间、经济属性,构建多源数据融合的人口城镇化概念模型。基于迁移流、位置识别和企业关联网络等方法,展开实证研究。结果表明:(1)区域层面:受落户门槛、家庭权益、社会保障等限制,人口流动比资本流动更为谨慎,也更遵从行政区经济和城镇等级体系。(2)市域层面:城镇化形式主要表现为城市和乡村的直接联系,重点镇辐射和吸纳作用不强。(3)新经济使后发地区弯道超车成为可能。研究发现此概念模型适用性较好,能够合理识别经济社会联系的主体格局,为城镇开发边界划定和国土空间格局优化起到一定的支撑作用,对市县国土空间规划的区域协调研究具有较强的参考价值。
Nowadays, with the increasingly coordinated development of regions, the study of population urbanization also urgently needs to be carried out from a broad regional perspective.Focusing on the three core issues of new urbanization, mamely, people, land, and property, the social, spatial, and economic attributes on population mobility are derived. Based on a comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of commonly used data methods in urbanization analysis, this paper constructs a new conceptual model for population urbanization in different scales with multi-source data. Using the census and survey data, mobile phone data,and enterprise registration data, the conceptual model is applied to an empirical study of urban dense areas-Yangzhou city and shows strong applicability, based on migration flow analysis,location identification, and enterprise headquarters-branch network analysis methods. The results show that:(1) At the regional level, due to the factors such as the threshold of settlement, family rights, and social security, population mobility is more cautious than capital flows. And it is compliant with the administrative district economy and urban hierarchy system.(2) At the municipal level, because the central city has greater advantages than the villages and towns, in terms of public service facilities and income levels, the urbanization form is mainly manifested in the direct connection between urban and rural areas, while the radiating and absorbing effects of key towns for population and enterprises are not strong.(3) In the era of ecological civilization, places with beautiful scenery, profound history, and rich cultural heritage are the natural soil for new economy. And the new economy has become a powerful engine for new urbanization in the late-developing areas. Yangzhou has a pleasant ecological environment and profound cultural atmosphere, which is the natural advantage and foundation of developing new types of economy. It needs to develop industrial platform, innovative environment, and innovation system to jointly create a comprehensive advantage of new economic development. Empirical research shows that the conceptual model has good applicability. It can identify the main pattern of economic and social linkages scientifically,reveal the intensive communicating area in town cluster region, and play a supporting role in delimiting urban development boundaries and optimizing the spatial pattern of land. Therefore,this model has a strong reference value for the study of regional coordination of territorial spatial plan at city and county level.
Nowadays, with the increasingly coordinated development of regions, the study of population urbanization also urgently needs to be carried out from a broad regional perspective.Focusing on the three core issues of new urbanization, mamely, people, land, and property, the social, spatial, and economic attributes on population mobility are derived. Based on a comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of commonly used data methods in urbanization analysis, this paper constructs a new conceptual model for population urbanization in different scales with multi-source data. Using the census and survey data, mobile phone data,and enterprise registration data, the conceptual model is applied to an empirical study of urban dense areas-Yangzhou city and shows strong applicability, based on migration flow analysis,location identification, and enterprise headquarters-branch network analysis methods. The results show that:(1) At the regional level, due to the factors such as the threshold of settlement, family rights, and social security, population mobility is more cautious than capital flows. And it is compliant with the administrative district economy and urban hierarchy system.(2) At the municipal level, because the central city has greater advantages than the villages and towns, in terms of public service facilities and income levels, the urbanization form is mainly manifested in the direct connection between urban and rural areas, while the radiating and absorbing effects of key towns for population and enterprises are not strong.(3) In the era of ecological civilization, places with beautiful scenery, profound history, and rich cultural heritage are the natural soil for new economy. And the new economy has become a powerful engine for new urbanization in the late-developing areas. Yangzhou has a pleasant ecological environment and profound cultural atmosphere, which is the natural advantage and foundation of developing new types of economy. It needs to develop industrial platform, innovative environment, and innovation system to jointly create a comprehensive advantage of new economic development. Empirical research shows that the conceptual model has good applicability. It can identify the main pattern of economic and social linkages scientifically,reveal the intensive communicating area in town cluster region, and play a supporting role in delimiting urban development boundaries and optimizing the spatial pattern of land. Therefore,this model has a strong reference value for the study of regional coordination of territorial spatial plan at city and county level.
引文
[1]陆杰华,李月. 2012-2013年中国人口学研究的回顾与评述.人口与经济, 2014,(3):31-41.[LU J H, LI Y. Review and observation on China's demography research of 2012 and 2013. Population and Economics, 2014,(3):31-41.]
[2]郭志刚.我国人口城镇化现状的剖析:基于2010年人口普查数据.社会学研究, 2014, 29(1):10-24.[GUO Z G. On current situation of population urbanization in china:Based on the 2010 population census data. The Research on Society, 2014, 29(1):10-24.]
[3]张付娟,王振江.人口流动视角下中国城镇化区域差异及其经济基础研究.西北人口, 2015, 36(5):13-19.[ZHANG F J, WANG Z J. Study on regional difference of China and its economic foundation from the perspective of population flowing. Northwest Population, 2015, 36(5):13-19.]
[4]邓羽,刘盛和,蔡建明,等.中国省际人口空间格局演化的分析方法与实证.地理学报, 2014, 69(10):1473-1486.[DENG Y, LIU S H, CAI J M, et al. Spatial pattern and its evolution of Chinese provincial population and empirical study. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(10):1473-1486.]
[5]刘盛和,邓羽,胡章.中国流动人口地域类型的划分方法及空间分布特征.地理学报, 2010, 65(10):1187-1197.[LIU S H, DENG Y, HU Z. Research on classification methods and spatial patterns of the regional types of China's floating population. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(10):1187-1197.]
[6]龙瀛.城市大数据与定量城市研究.上海城市规划, 2014,(5):13-15.[LONG Y. Studies and practices of urban big data and open data in China. Shanghai Urban Planning Review, 2014,(5):13-15.]
[7] CASTELLS M. The Informational City:Information Technology, Economic Restructuring, and the Urban-regional Process. Oxford:Blackwell, 1989.
[8]甄峰,秦萧.大数据在智慧城市研究与规划中的应用.国际城市规划, 2014, 29(6):44-50.[ZHEN F, QIN X. The application of big data in smart city research and planning. Urban Planning International, 2014, 29(6):44-50.]
[9]王宏志,黄欢欢,徐新良,等.基于3S技术的城乡一体化进程监测评价方法及应用:以浙江嘉善县为例.地理科学,2017, 37(4):563-572.[WANG H Z, HUANG H H, XU X L, et al. Evaluation method and its application of urban-rural integration progress based on 3S technology:A case study of Jiashan county, Zhejiang. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017, 37(4):563-572.]
[10]赵金彩,钟章奇,卢鹤立,等.基于夜间灯光的城市居民直接碳排放及影响因素:以中原经济区为例.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(12):2100-2114.[ZHAO J C, ZHONG Z Q, LU H L, et al. Urban residential CO2emissions and its determinants:A case study of Central Plains Economic Region. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(12):2100-2114.]
[11]马春景.基于手机信令数据的流动人口出行特性分析方法研究.南京:东南大学, 2016.[MA C J. Study on methods of analyzing the floating population trip characteristics based on phone signaling data. Nanjing:Southeast University,2016.]
[12]李峰清.基于高铁网络的我国城镇化空间模式再探:基于上海—长三角腹地的检验及辨析.城市规划, 2018, 42(3):109-120.[LI F Q. Re-exploring the spatial model of urbanization in China based on highspeed rail network:Inspection and analysis of Shanghai-hinterland of Yangtze River Delta. City Planning Review, 2018, 42(3):109-120.]
[13]路雅文,张正河.迁移圈层结构:一种新的乡城人口流动—迁移分析方法.西北工业大学学报:社会科学版, 2017,37(4):6-13.[LU Y W, ZHANG H Z. Migration circle structure:A new method of analysis of rural-urban population flow-migration. Journal of Northwestern Polytechnical University:Social Sciences, 2017, 37(4):6-13.]
[14]孙阳,姚士谋,陆大道,等.中国城市群人口流动问题探析:以沿海三大城市群为例.地理科学, 2016, 36(12):1777-1783.[SUN Y, YAO S M, LU D D, et al. Population mobility of urban agglomeration in China:A case study on the three coastal agglomerations. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(12):1777-1783.]
[15]刘欢,邓宏兵,李小帆.长江经济带人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展时空差异研究.中国人口·资源与环境, 2016,26(5):160-166.[LIU H, DENG H B, LI X F. Research on the spatial and temporal difference of coordinated development between population urbanization and land urbanization in Yangtze River Economic Belt. Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(5):160-166.]
[16]自然资源部.关于做好市县国土空间总体规划编制工作的指导意见（征求意见稿）. 2019.[Ministry of Natural Resources. Guiding Opinions on Making Overall Planning of Urban and County Territorial Space(Draft for Opinions).2019.]
[17]浙江省自然资源厅.浙江省市县国土空间总体规划编制要点（征求意见稿）. 2019.[Ministry of Natural Resources in Zhejiang Province. Major Points for Making Overall Land and Space Planning of Cities and Counties in Zhejiang Province(Draft for Consultation). 2019.]
[18]张浩,冯淑怡,曲福田.耕地保护、建设用地集约利用与城镇化耦合协调性研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(6):1002-1015.[ZHANG H, FENG S Y, QU F T. Research on coupling coordination among cultivated land protection, construction land intensive use and urbanization. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(6):1002-1015.]
[19]杨丽霞,苑韶峰,王雪禅.人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展的空间差异研究:以浙江省69县市为例.中国土地科学, 2013, 27(11):18-25.[YANG L X, YUAN S F, WANG X C. Spatial pattern disparity of coordinating the population urbanization and land urbanization in 69 counties of Zhejiang province. China Land Sciences, 2013, 27(11):18-25.]
[20]张宇,曹卫东,梁双波.西部欠发达区人口城镇化与产业城镇化演化进程对比研究:以青海省为例.经济地理,2017, 37(2):61-67.[ZHANG Y, CAO W D, LIANG S B. A comparative study on the evolution process of urbanization and industrialization in the underdeveloped areas of western China:A case study of Qinghai province. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(2):61-67.]
[21]郑德高.基于网络和节点对长三角城镇空间的再认识.城市规划学刊, 2017,(8):20-26.[ZHENG D G. Recognition of urban spaces in the Yangtze River Delta region on the basis of network and nodes. Urban Planning Forum, 2017,(8):20-26.]
[22]唐子来,赵渺希.经济全球化视角下长三角区域的城市体系演化:关联网络和价值区段的分析方法.城市规划学刊, 2010,(1):29-35.[TANG Z L, ZHAO M X. Economic globalization and transformation of urban system in the Yangtze River Delta region:Interlocking network and value-added hierarchy. Urban Planning Forum, 2010,(1):29-35.]
[23]张浩,冯淑怡,曲福田.耕地保护、建设用地集约利用与城镇化耦合协调性研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(6):1002-1015.[ZHANG H, FENG S Y, QU F T. Research on coupling coordination among cultivated land protection, construction land intensive use and urbanization. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(6):1002-1015.]
[24]陈贝贝.无锡半城市化地区的空间范围识别.地理研究, 2013, 32(7):1209-1219.[CHEN B B. Spatial definition of peri-urban areas in Wuxi. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(7):1209-1219.]
[25]刘盛和,张擎.杭州市半城市化地区空间分布变化.地理研究, 2008, 27(5):982-992.[LIU S H, ZHANG Q. Spatial distribution change of semi-urbanized areas in Hangzhou city. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(5):982-992.]
[26]曹传新.基于季节性人口流动影响下的县域城镇化路径模式:以金寨县为例.城市发展研究, 2013, 20(10):41-46.[CAO C X. The study of county urbanization path mode based on the influence of seasonal population movements:A case of Jinzhai county. Urban Development Studies, 2013, 20(10):41-46.]
[27]李凯,刘涛,曹广忠.城市群空间集聚和扩散的特征与机制:以长三角城市群、武汉城市群和成渝城市群为例.城市规划, 2016, 40(2):18-26.[LI K, LIU T, CAO G Z. Characteristics and mechanism of spatial concentration and dispersion of the representative urban agglomerations in china:A case study of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations,Wuhan Urban Agglomerations, and Chengdu Chongqing Urban Agglomerations. City Planning Review, 2016, 40(2):18-26.]
[28]罗震东,何鹤鸣.新自下而上进程:电子商务作用下的乡村城镇化.城市规划, 2017, 41(3):31-40.[LUO Z D, HE H M. New urbanization from below in China:Rural urbanization driven by e-commerce. City Planning Review, 2017, 41(3):31-40.]
[29]戎一翎,单军锋,王宗记,等.新型城镇化背景下的小城镇发展初探:以江苏省常州市区为例.小城镇建设, 2013,(11):44-50.[RONG Y L, SHAN J F, WANG Z J, et al. A preliminary study on the development of small towns under the background of new urbanization:A case study of Changzhou city, Jiangsu province. Construction of Small Towns,2013,(11):44-50.]
[2]郭志刚.我国人口城镇化现状的剖析:基于2010年人口普查数据.社会学研究, 2014, 29(1):10-24.[GUO Z G. On current situation of population urbanization in china:Based on the 2010 population census data. The Research on Society, 2014, 29(1):10-24.]
[3]张付娟,王振江.人口流动视角下中国城镇化区域差异及其经济基础研究.西北人口, 2015, 36(5):13-19.[ZHANG F J, WANG Z J. Study on regional difference of China and its economic foundation from the perspective of population flowing. Northwest Population, 2015, 36(5):13-19.]
[4]邓羽,刘盛和,蔡建明,等.中国省际人口空间格局演化的分析方法与实证.地理学报, 2014, 69(10):1473-1486.[DENG Y, LIU S H, CAI J M, et al. Spatial pattern and its evolution of Chinese provincial population and empirical study. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(10):1473-1486.]
[5]刘盛和,邓羽,胡章.中国流动人口地域类型的划分方法及空间分布特征.地理学报, 2010, 65(10):1187-1197.[LIU S H, DENG Y, HU Z. Research on classification methods and spatial patterns of the regional types of China's floating population. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(10):1187-1197.]
[6]龙瀛.城市大数据与定量城市研究.上海城市规划, 2014,(5):13-15.[LONG Y. Studies and practices of urban big data and open data in China. Shanghai Urban Planning Review, 2014,(5):13-15.]
[7] CASTELLS M. The Informational City:Information Technology, Economic Restructuring, and the Urban-regional Process. Oxford:Blackwell, 1989.
[8]甄峰,秦萧.大数据在智慧城市研究与规划中的应用.国际城市规划, 2014, 29(6):44-50.[ZHEN F, QIN X. The application of big data in smart city research and planning. Urban Planning International, 2014, 29(6):44-50.]
[9]王宏志,黄欢欢,徐新良,等.基于3S技术的城乡一体化进程监测评价方法及应用:以浙江嘉善县为例.地理科学,2017, 37(4):563-572.[WANG H Z, HUANG H H, XU X L, et al. Evaluation method and its application of urban-rural integration progress based on 3S technology:A case study of Jiashan county, Zhejiang. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017, 37(4):563-572.]
[10]赵金彩,钟章奇,卢鹤立,等.基于夜间灯光的城市居民直接碳排放及影响因素:以中原经济区为例.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(12):2100-2114.[ZHAO J C, ZHONG Z Q, LU H L, et al. Urban residential CO2emissions and its determinants:A case study of Central Plains Economic Region. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(12):2100-2114.]
[11]马春景.基于手机信令数据的流动人口出行特性分析方法研究.南京:东南大学, 2016.[MA C J. Study on methods of analyzing the floating population trip characteristics based on phone signaling data. Nanjing:Southeast University,2016.]
[12]李峰清.基于高铁网络的我国城镇化空间模式再探:基于上海—长三角腹地的检验及辨析.城市规划, 2018, 42(3):109-120.[LI F Q. Re-exploring the spatial model of urbanization in China based on highspeed rail network:Inspection and analysis of Shanghai-hinterland of Yangtze River Delta. City Planning Review, 2018, 42(3):109-120.]
[13]路雅文,张正河.迁移圈层结构:一种新的乡城人口流动—迁移分析方法.西北工业大学学报:社会科学版, 2017,37(4):6-13.[LU Y W, ZHANG H Z. Migration circle structure:A new method of analysis of rural-urban population flow-migration. Journal of Northwestern Polytechnical University:Social Sciences, 2017, 37(4):6-13.]
[14]孙阳,姚士谋,陆大道,等.中国城市群人口流动问题探析:以沿海三大城市群为例.地理科学, 2016, 36(12):1777-1783.[SUN Y, YAO S M, LU D D, et al. Population mobility of urban agglomeration in China:A case study on the three coastal agglomerations. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(12):1777-1783.]
[15]刘欢,邓宏兵,李小帆.长江经济带人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展时空差异研究.中国人口·资源与环境, 2016,26(5):160-166.[LIU H, DENG H B, LI X F. Research on the spatial and temporal difference of coordinated development between population urbanization and land urbanization in Yangtze River Economic Belt. Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(5):160-166.]
[16]自然资源部.关于做好市县国土空间总体规划编制工作的指导意见（征求意见稿）. 2019.[Ministry of Natural Resources. Guiding Opinions on Making Overall Planning of Urban and County Territorial Space(Draft for Opinions).2019.]
[17]浙江省自然资源厅.浙江省市县国土空间总体规划编制要点（征求意见稿）. 2019.[Ministry of Natural Resources in Zhejiang Province. Major Points for Making Overall Land and Space Planning of Cities and Counties in Zhejiang Province(Draft for Consultation). 2019.]
[18]张浩,冯淑怡,曲福田.耕地保护、建设用地集约利用与城镇化耦合协调性研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(6):1002-1015.[ZHANG H, FENG S Y, QU F T. Research on coupling coordination among cultivated land protection, construction land intensive use and urbanization. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(6):1002-1015.]
[19]杨丽霞,苑韶峰,王雪禅.人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展的空间差异研究:以浙江省69县市为例.中国土地科学, 2013, 27(11):18-25.[YANG L X, YUAN S F, WANG X C. Spatial pattern disparity of coordinating the population urbanization and land urbanization in 69 counties of Zhejiang province. China Land Sciences, 2013, 27(11):18-25.]
[20]张宇,曹卫东,梁双波.西部欠发达区人口城镇化与产业城镇化演化进程对比研究:以青海省为例.经济地理,2017, 37(2):61-67.[ZHANG Y, CAO W D, LIANG S B. A comparative study on the evolution process of urbanization and industrialization in the underdeveloped areas of western China:A case study of Qinghai province. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(2):61-67.]
[21]郑德高.基于网络和节点对长三角城镇空间的再认识.城市规划学刊, 2017,(8):20-26.[ZHENG D G. Recognition of urban spaces in the Yangtze River Delta region on the basis of network and nodes. Urban Planning Forum, 2017,(8):20-26.]
[22]唐子来,赵渺希.经济全球化视角下长三角区域的城市体系演化:关联网络和价值区段的分析方法.城市规划学刊, 2010,(1):29-35.[TANG Z L, ZHAO M X. Economic globalization and transformation of urban system in the Yangtze River Delta region:Interlocking network and value-added hierarchy. Urban Planning Forum, 2010,(1):29-35.]
[23]张浩,冯淑怡,曲福田.耕地保护、建设用地集约利用与城镇化耦合协调性研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(6):1002-1015.[ZHANG H, FENG S Y, QU F T. Research on coupling coordination among cultivated land protection, construction land intensive use and urbanization. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(6):1002-1015.]
[24]陈贝贝.无锡半城市化地区的空间范围识别.地理研究, 2013, 32(7):1209-1219.[CHEN B B. Spatial definition of peri-urban areas in Wuxi. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(7):1209-1219.]
[25]刘盛和,张擎.杭州市半城市化地区空间分布变化.地理研究, 2008, 27(5):982-992.[LIU S H, ZHANG Q. Spatial distribution change of semi-urbanized areas in Hangzhou city. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(5):982-992.]
[26]曹传新.基于季节性人口流动影响下的县域城镇化路径模式:以金寨县为例.城市发展研究, 2013, 20(10):41-46.[CAO C X. The study of county urbanization path mode based on the influence of seasonal population movements:A case of Jinzhai county. Urban Development Studies, 2013, 20(10):41-46.]
[27]李凯,刘涛,曹广忠.城市群空间集聚和扩散的特征与机制:以长三角城市群、武汉城市群和成渝城市群为例.城市规划, 2016, 40(2):18-26.[LI K, LIU T, CAO G Z. Characteristics and mechanism of spatial concentration and dispersion of the representative urban agglomerations in china:A case study of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations,Wuhan Urban Agglomerations, and Chengdu Chongqing Urban Agglomerations. City Planning Review, 2016, 40(2):18-26.]
[28]罗震东,何鹤鸣.新自下而上进程:电子商务作用下的乡村城镇化.城市规划, 2017, 41(3):31-40.[LUO Z D, HE H M. New urbanization from below in China:Rural urbanization driven by e-commerce. City Planning Review, 2017, 41(3):31-40.]
[29]戎一翎,单军锋,王宗记,等.新型城镇化背景下的小城镇发展初探:以江苏省常州市区为例.小城镇建设, 2013,(11):44-50.[RONG Y L, SHAN J F, WANG Z J, et al. A preliminary study on the development of small towns under the background of new urbanization:A case study of Changzhou city, Jiangsu province. Construction of Small Towns,2013,(11):44-50.]