中国两代流动人口子女随迁决策的比较研究
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摘要
新生代流动人口已成为我国流动人口的主力军,且新、老两代流动人口已呈现出明显的代际分化和差异。为探究我国新、老两代流动人口在子女随迁决策过程中是否存在差异、差异如何以及具体的差异机制,文章使用2013年"流动人口动态监测八城市"数据以及二分Logit回归模型对我国流动人口子女随迁决策的代际差异进行对比研究。研究发现新生代流动人口比老一代流动人口安排其3-12岁子女随迁的可能性低,且新、老两代流动人口的3-12岁子女随迁决策过程确实存在差异。二者差异主要体现在"子女年龄"、"家庭本地月收入"、"流动范围"以及"流入地社会资本"这四个因素上。分析二者差异机制的交互模型结果显示,控制其他因素的影响后,随着"家庭本地月收入"和"儿童年龄"的增加,新生代流动人口安排其子女(3-12岁)随迁的可能性均高于老一代流动人口子女随迁的可能性。由于新生代流动人口安排子女随迁的比例相对降低将会产生更多的留守儿童。因此,新生代流动人口随迁子女比例降低的深层次原因需要深入研究。各流入地城市应准确把握本区域内流动人口年龄结构,了解本区域内不同代际流动人口的困难和诉求,制定有的放矢、与时俱进的流动人口福利保障政策和制度。此外,新生代流动人口占比较大的城市应积极增加有关教育设施,制定并完善随迁子女教育保障制度。
The new generation of floating population has become the main force of China's floating popula?tion,and the new and old generations of the floating population have shown differences among several di?mensions. Using data from"the 2013 China Dynamic Monitoring Survey of Floating Population",we exam?ine differences of parental migration decision making process for children between the old and new floating population generations in China. We focus on children ages 3-12. We find that the new generation of the floating population is less likely than the old generation to take their children to join them in migrant desti?nations. These differences are mainly reflected in four factors:"child's age","family monthly income in destination cities","migration distance"and"social capital in destination cities". Results from models with interaction terms show that,when"family monthly income in destination cities"and"children's age"increase,the new generation of floating population is more likely to arrange their children(3-12 years old)to migrate with them than the old generation after controlling for other factors. Finally,we argue that the de?creased probability of taking children to migrant destinations among the new generation of the floating popu?lation is likely to lead to creation of more left-behind children. Therefore,this problem deserves further ex?ploration. Moreover,cities with large numbers of floating population would do best to understand the age composition of the floating population in its region and to provide educational infrastructure and improve ed?ucation system.
The new generation of floating population has become the main force of China's floating popula?tion,and the new and old generations of the floating population have shown differences among several di?mensions. Using data from"the 2013 China Dynamic Monitoring Survey of Floating Population",we exam?ine differences of parental migration decision making process for children between the old and new floating population generations in China. We focus on children ages 3-12. We find that the new generation of the floating population is less likely than the old generation to take their children to join them in migrant desti?nations. These differences are mainly reflected in four factors:"child's age","family monthly income in destination cities","migration distance"and"social capital in destination cities". Results from models with interaction terms show that,when"family monthly income in destination cities"and"children's age"increase,the new generation of floating population is more likely to arrange their children(3-12 years old)to migrate with them than the old generation after controlling for other factors. Finally,we argue that the de?creased probability of taking children to migrant destinations among the new generation of the floating popu?lation is likely to lead to creation of more left-behind children. Therefore,this problem deserves further ex?ploration. Moreover,cities with large numbers of floating population would do best to understand the age composition of the floating population in its region and to provide educational infrastructure and improve ed?ucation system.
引文
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[14]Zai Liang. China’s Great Migration[J]. Annual Review of Sociology,2016,(42):451-471.
[15]佟新.人口社会学(第4版)[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2010:142-144.
[16]朱静辉.家庭结构、代际关系与老年人赡养——以安徽薛村为个案的考察[J].西北人口,2010,31(3):51-57.
[17]贺雪峰.农村家庭代际关系的变动及其影响[J].江海学刊,2008,(4):108-113.
[18]刘桂莉.眼泪为什么往下流?——转型期家庭代际关系倾斜问题探析[J].南昌大学学报(人文社会科学版),2005,36(6):1-8.
[2]俞林伟,朱宇.社会融合视角下流动人口的生活满意度及其代际差异——基于2014年流动人口动态监测数据的分析[J].浙江社会科学,2017,(10):74-84,157.
[3]陈玉明,崔勋.代际差异理论与代际价值观差异的研究评述[J].中国人力资源开发,2014,(13):43-48.
[4]Ryder N B. The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change[J]. American Sociological Review,1965,30(6):843-861.
[5]刘传江,程建林.我国农民工的代际差异与市民化[J].经济纵横,2007,(7):18-21.
[6]李建新,骆为祥.生育意愿的代际差异分析——以江苏省为例[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,26(3):21-30.
[7]王东,秦伟.农民工代际差异研究——成都市在城农民工分层比较[J].人口研究,2002,26(5):49-54.
[8]何军.代际差异视角下农民工城市融入的影响因素分析——基于分位数回归方法[J].中国农村经济,2011,(6):15-25.
[9]许召元,高颖,任婧玲.农民工子女就学地点选择的影响因素分析[J].中国农村观察,2008,(6):12-21.
[10]陶然,孔德华,曹广息.流动还是留守:中国农村流动人口子女就学地选择与影响因素考察[J].中国农村经济,2011,(6):37-44.
[11]许传新,张登国.流动还是留守:家长的选择及其影响因素[J].中国青年研究,2010,(10):52-55.
[12]杨舸,段成荣,王宗萍.流动还是留守:流动人口子女随迁的选择性及其影响因素分析[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2011,28(3):85-96.
[13]梁宏,任焰.流动,还是留守?——农民工子女流动与否的决定因素分析[J].人口研究,2010,34(2):57-65.
[14]Zai Liang. China’s Great Migration[J]. Annual Review of Sociology,2016,(42):451-471.
[15]佟新.人口社会学(第4版)[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2010:142-144.
[16]朱静辉.家庭结构、代际关系与老年人赡养——以安徽薛村为个案的考察[J].西北人口,2010,31(3):51-57.
[17]贺雪峰.农村家庭代际关系的变动及其影响[J].江海学刊,2008,(4):108-113.
[18]刘桂莉.眼泪为什么往下流?——转型期家庭代际关系倾斜问题探析[J].南昌大学学报(人文社会科学版),2005,36(6):1-8.