人口转型与经济增长——中等收入阶段视角
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摘要
本文从人口红利和统一增长理论两个视角阐述中等收入阶段人口转型的特征及其与经济增长的关系。然后,根据世界银行数据和宾州世界表的人力资本指数,采用生存分析中的COX比例风险模型,验证了OECD国家人口转型与经济增长的关系,并提出了中国应对人口转型应该全面放弃计划生育政策,大力开发老年劳动资源以及以"人力资源红利"代表"人口红利"的政策建议。
This paper expounds the characteristics of demographic transition in middle-income stage and its relation with economic growth from the perspectives of population dividends and unified growth theory.In accordance with world bank data and human capital index of Penn World Tables,it uses cox proportional hazard model to verify the correlation between Demographic Transition and Economic Growth of OECD.It also proposes that family plan must be abandoned in response to demographic transition,aging labor resource must be developed,human resource dividend must represent population dividend.
This paper expounds the characteristics of demographic transition in middle-income stage and its relation with economic growth from the perspectives of population dividends and unified growth theory.In accordance with world bank data and human capital index of Penn World Tables,it uses cox proportional hazard model to verify the correlation between Demographic Transition and Economic Growth of OECD.It also proposes that family plan must be abandoned in response to demographic transition,aging labor resource must be developed,human resource dividend must represent population dividend.
引文
[1]Notestein,F.W..Population--The Long View[M].Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1945.
[2]Becker,G.S.,Murphy,K.M.and Tamura,R..Human capital,fertility and economic growth[J].Journal of Polit ical Economy,1990,98(4):312-337.
[3]Hansen,G D.and Prescott E C.Malthus to solow[J].The American Economic Review,2002,92(4):1205-1217.
[4]Lindh,T.and Malmberg,B..Age Structure Effects and Growth in OECD:1950-1990[J].Journal of Population Economics,1999,12(3):431-449.
[5]刘洪银.人口抚养比对经济增长的影响分析[J].人口与经济,2008:1-6.
[6]钟水映,李魁.人口红利、空间外溢与省域经济增长[J].管理世界,2010(4):14-23.
[7]Lugauer,S..Estimating the effect of the age distribution on cyclical output volatility across the united states[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2012,94(4):896-902.
[8]Fougere,M and Merette,M..Population aging and economic growth in seven OECD countries[J].Economic Modelling,1999,16(3):411-427.
[9]芦东.人口结构、经济增长与中国居民储蓄率:基于迭代模型(OLG)和省级面板数据的实证研究[J].上海金融,2011(1):10-15.
[10]David Bloom and Jeffrey G.Williamson.Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia[J].World Bank Economic Review,1998(3):419-455.
[11]Bloom D,Canning D.and Sevilla J.The demographic dividend:A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change[M].Rand Corporation,2003.
[12]Bloom,D.E.,Canning.D.,Fink.G,et al.Fertility,female labor force participation,and the demographic dividend[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2009,14(2):79-101.
[13]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性——兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长[J].人口研究,2004(2):2-9.
[14]汪小勤,汪红梅.“人口红利”效应与中国经济增长[J].经济学家,2007(1):104-110.
[15]汪伟.经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄[J].经济学(季刊),2009,9(1):29-52.
[16]Cai,Fang.and Dewen,Wang.Demographic Transition:Implications for Growth,in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song,eds.,The China Boom and its Discontents[M].Canberra:Asia Pacific Press,2005.
[17]Wang F,and Mason A.Demographic dividend and prospects for economic development in China[R].United Nations,2005.
[18]Mason A.and Kinugasa T.East Asian Economic Development:Two Demographic Dividends[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2008,19(5):389-399.
[19]周祝平.人口红利,刘易斯转折点与经济增长[J].中国图书评论,2007(9):4-12.
[20]Futagami K.and Nakajima T..Population aging and economic growth[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2001,23(1):31-44.
[21][美]查尔斯.金德伯格,布鲁斯,赫里克.经济发展(中文版)[M].上海:上海译文出版社,1986.
[22]Galor,O..The demographic transition and the emergence of sustained economic growth[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2005,3(2-3):494-504.
[23]郭熙保,郑淇泽.中国人口转型与经济增长:基于统——增长理论视角[J].江海学刊,2015(1):67-76.
[24]郭熙保,朱兰.“中等收入陷阱”存在吗?——基于统一增长理论与转移概率矩阵的考察[J].经济学动态,2016(10):139-154.
[25]Barro,R.J.and J.W.Lee..International Data on Educational Attainment:Updates and Implications[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2012.
[26]G.Psacharopoulos..Returns to investment in education:A global update[J].World Development,1994,22(9):1324-43.
[27]张德荣.“中等收入陷阱”发生机理与中国经济增长的阶段性动力[J].经济研究,2013.
(1)2007年世界银行发展报告:《东亚复兴:关于经济增长的观点》。
(2)The Maddison-Project,http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm,2013 version.
(3)本文是按照绝对收入标准对各国收入水平进行划分的。数据来源与具体标准见郭熙保、朱兰:《“中等收入陷阱”存在吗?——基于统一增长理论与转移概率矩阵的考察》,《经济学动态》2016年第10期。
(4) 世界银行数据:http://data.
(5) 这里所说的“死亡”是借用生存分析法的术语,在这里是表示中等收入阶段消失。
(6)这里所指的OECD国家是现在的OECD成员国,包括30个国家。在1960年时,这30个国家中,有13个国家处于中高收入阶段,有1个处在高收入阶段,有16个国家处于中低收入阶段。
[2]Becker,G.S.,Murphy,K.M.and Tamura,R..Human capital,fertility and economic growth[J].Journal of Polit ical Economy,1990,98(4):312-337.
[3]Hansen,G D.and Prescott E C.Malthus to solow[J].The American Economic Review,2002,92(4):1205-1217.
[4]Lindh,T.and Malmberg,B..Age Structure Effects and Growth in OECD:1950-1990[J].Journal of Population Economics,1999,12(3):431-449.
[5]刘洪银.人口抚养比对经济增长的影响分析[J].人口与经济,2008:1-6.
[6]钟水映,李魁.人口红利、空间外溢与省域经济增长[J].管理世界,2010(4):14-23.
[7]Lugauer,S..Estimating the effect of the age distribution on cyclical output volatility across the united states[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2012,94(4):896-902.
[8]Fougere,M and Merette,M..Population aging and economic growth in seven OECD countries[J].Economic Modelling,1999,16(3):411-427.
[9]芦东.人口结构、经济增长与中国居民储蓄率:基于迭代模型(OLG)和省级面板数据的实证研究[J].上海金融,2011(1):10-15.
[10]David Bloom and Jeffrey G.Williamson.Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia[J].World Bank Economic Review,1998(3):419-455.
[11]Bloom D,Canning D.and Sevilla J.The demographic dividend:A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change[M].Rand Corporation,2003.
[12]Bloom,D.E.,Canning.D.,Fink.G,et al.Fertility,female labor force participation,and the demographic dividend[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2009,14(2):79-101.
[13]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性——兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长[J].人口研究,2004(2):2-9.
[14]汪小勤,汪红梅.“人口红利”效应与中国经济增长[J].经济学家,2007(1):104-110.
[15]汪伟.经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄[J].经济学(季刊),2009,9(1):29-52.
[16]Cai,Fang.and Dewen,Wang.Demographic Transition:Implications for Growth,in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song,eds.,The China Boom and its Discontents[M].Canberra:Asia Pacific Press,2005.
[17]Wang F,and Mason A.Demographic dividend and prospects for economic development in China[R].United Nations,2005.
[18]Mason A.and Kinugasa T.East Asian Economic Development:Two Demographic Dividends[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2008,19(5):389-399.
[19]周祝平.人口红利,刘易斯转折点与经济增长[J].中国图书评论,2007(9):4-12.
[20]Futagami K.and Nakajima T..Population aging and economic growth[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2001,23(1):31-44.
[21][美]查尔斯.金德伯格,布鲁斯,赫里克.经济发展(中文版)[M].上海:上海译文出版社,1986.
[22]Galor,O..The demographic transition and the emergence of sustained economic growth[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2005,3(2-3):494-504.
[23]郭熙保,郑淇泽.中国人口转型与经济增长:基于统——增长理论视角[J].江海学刊,2015(1):67-76.
[24]郭熙保,朱兰.“中等收入陷阱”存在吗?——基于统一增长理论与转移概率矩阵的考察[J].经济学动态,2016(10):139-154.
[25]Barro,R.J.and J.W.Lee..International Data on Educational Attainment:Updates and Implications[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2012.
[26]G.Psacharopoulos..Returns to investment in education:A global update[J].World Development,1994,22(9):1324-43.
[27]张德荣.“中等收入陷阱”发生机理与中国经济增长的阶段性动力[J].经济研究,2013.
(1)2007年世界银行发展报告:《东亚复兴:关于经济增长的观点》。
(2)The Maddison-Project,http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm,2013 version.
(3)本文是按照绝对收入标准对各国收入水平进行划分的。数据来源与具体标准见郭熙保、朱兰:《“中等收入陷阱”存在吗?——基于统一增长理论与转移概率矩阵的考察》,《经济学动态》2016年第10期。
(4) 世界银行数据:http://data.
(5) 这里所说的“死亡”是借用生存分析法的术语,在这里是表示中等收入阶段消失。
(6)这里所指的OECD国家是现在的OECD成员国,包括30个国家。在1960年时,这30个国家中,有13个国家处于中高收入阶段,有1个处在高收入阶段,有16个国家处于中低收入阶段。