理性住房市场条件下房价影响消费机理研究
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摘要
本文以生命周期——持久收入理论为依据构建家庭跨期住房-消费决策模型,通过最优化方法求解均衡得到家庭最优决策。根据房产市场发展情况分四种类型对理性住房条件下家庭最优消费与房价变化关系进行比较静态分析。结论显示,房价变化对家庭消费的影响,一方面,取决于市场发展情况,包括房产逆向抵押市场、二手房市场的建设,另一方面,取决于家庭对住房的心理偏好,即住房在家庭心中的地位。房产市场发展不健全情况下,房价上升会抑制强住房偏好家庭的消费,增加弱住房偏好家庭的消费。这很好地解释了大多数研究得出的我国房价上涨与家庭消费呈反向变化的结论。房产市场发展健全条件下,房价变化对家庭消费的影响,除了取决于家庭住房偏好外,还取决于是本期房价变化还是预期房价变化。
Based on life cycle-permanent income theory, this paper sets a intertemporal model of housing and consumption of households. The households' best decision of housing and consumption is solved for through the maximization method. According to different development status of housing markets, the responses of household consumption to house prices of 4 types of households are analyzed through a comparative static analysis. The analysis reveals that the responses of household consumption to house prices depend on the development of housing markets and the psychological preference to owning a house of households, say, the importance of housing in the household's utility. If the housing market is poorly developed, the rise of house prices will hinder the consumption of households with strong appetites for owning houses and increase the consumption of households with weak appetites for owning houses, which explains thoroughly that most empirical studies on China find there is a negative wealth effect of China's housing. If the housing markets are mature the responses of household consumption to house prices not only depend on households' preferences, but whether it is the current price or the expectation price.
Based on life cycle-permanent income theory, this paper sets a intertemporal model of housing and consumption of households. The households' best decision of housing and consumption is solved for through the maximization method. According to different development status of housing markets, the responses of household consumption to house prices of 4 types of households are analyzed through a comparative static analysis. The analysis reveals that the responses of household consumption to house prices depend on the development of housing markets and the psychological preference to owning a house of households, say, the importance of housing in the household's utility. If the housing market is poorly developed, the rise of house prices will hinder the consumption of households with strong appetites for owning houses and increase the consumption of households with weak appetites for owning houses, which explains thoroughly that most empirical studies on China find there is a negative wealth effect of China's housing. If the housing markets are mature the responses of household consumption to house prices not only depend on households' preferences, but whether it is the current price or the expectation price.
引文
[1]陈健,高波.收入差距、房价与消费变动,《上海经济研究》,2012年第2期。
[2]戴颖杰,周奎省:《房价变动对家庭消费行为影响的实证分析》,《宏观经济研究》,2012年第3期。
[3]邓健,张玉新:《房价波动对家庭消费的影响机制》,《管理世界》,2011年第4期。
[4]哈继铭:《人口结构与城市化推动房地产发展》,《中国房地信息》,2007年第7期。
[5]黄静,屠梅曾:《房地产财富与消费:来自于家庭微观调查数据的证据》,《管理世界》,2009年第7期。
[6]李雄军,姚树洁:《计划生育、城市化与我国房地产市场的发展》,《当代经济科学》,2011年第5期。
[7]陆勇:《住房价格与消费支出关系研究》,《审计与经济研究》,2007年第21期。
[8]孙克:《地价、房价与家庭消费》,《山西财经大学学报》,2012年第2期。
[9]肖卫国,郑开元,袁威:《住房价格、消费与中国货币政策最优选择:基于异质性房价预期的视角》,《经济评论》,2012年第2期。
[10]谢洁玉,吴斌珍,李宏彬,郑思齐:《中国城市房价与家庭消费》,《金融研究》,2012年第6期。
[11]徐小鹰:《房价上涨影响家庭消费的作用机制分析》,《经济问题》,2012年第10期。
[12]颜色,朱国钟:《“房奴效应”还是“财富效应”》,《管理世界》,2013年第3期。
[13]赵君丽:《人口变化与房地产需求——人口结构变化与房地产周期相关性研究》,《城市开发》,2002年第8期。
[14]赵西亮,梁文泉,李实:《房价上涨能够解释中国城镇家庭高储蓄率吗——基于CHIP微观数据的实证分析》,《经济学季刊》,2013年第1期。
[15]Alexander,L.,and Torsten,S.,2004,“The Relationship between Stock Prices,House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries”,The B.E.Journal of Macroeconomics,vol.4(1),pp.1~28.
[16]Aoki,K.,Proudman,J.,and Vlieghe,J.,2001,“House Prices,Consumption and Monetary Policy:a Financial Accelerator Approach”,Journal of Financial Intermediation,13,pp.414~35.
[17]Attanasio,O.,Andew,L.,Robert,H.,&Matthew,W.,2011,“Do House Prices Drive Consumption Growth?The Coincident Cycles of House Prices and Consumption in the UK”,Journal of the European Economic Association,vol.9(3),pp.399~435.
[18]Attanasio,O.,James,B.,Costas,M.,&Guglielmo,W.,1995,“Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption”,NBER Working Paper Series,No.5350.
[19]Attanasio,O.,Laura,B.,Robert,H.,&Andrew,L.,2009,“Booms and Busts:Consumption,House Prices and Expectations”,Economic,76,pp.20~50.
[20]Bottazzi,R.,Hamish,L.,Matthew,W.,2007,“Why Do Home Owners Work Longer Hours?”,The Institute for Fiscal Studies,WP10/07.
[21]Buiter,H.,2010,”Housing Wealth isn’t Wealth”,Economics,vol.3(22),pp.1~29.
[22]Calcagno,R.,Fornero,E.,Rossi,M.,2009,“The Effect of House Prices on Household Consumption in Italy”,J Real Estate Finan Econ,39,pp.284~300.
[23]Campbell,J.,and Cocco,J.,2007,“How Do House Prices Affect Consumption?Evidence from Micro Data”,Journal of Monetary Economics,54,pp.591~621.
[24]Case,K.,Shiller,R.,Quigley,J.,2005,“Comparing Wealth Effects:The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market”,Advances in Macroeconomics,vol.5(1),pp.1235~1253.
[25]Engelhardt,G.,1994,“House Prices and the Decision to Save for Down Payments”,Journal of Urban Economics,30,pp.209~237.
[26]Engelhardt,G.,1996,“House prices and home owner saving behavior”,Regional Science and Urban Economics,26,pp.313~336.
[27]Iacoviello,M.,2005,“House Prices,Borrowing Constraints,and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle”,American Economic Review,vol.95(3),pp.739~764.
[28]Iacoviello,M.and S.Neri.,2010,“Housing Market Spillovers:Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model”,American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,vol.2(2),pp.125~164.
[29]Janine,A.,Muellbauer,J.,and Murphy A.,“Housing wealth and UK consumption”,Economic Outlook,10,pp.11~20.
[30]Jan,K.,Jan,W.,2004,“Do stock prices affect house prices?Evidence for the Netherlands”,Applied Economic Letters,11,pp.741~744.
[31]King,M.,1990.Discussion[J].Economic Policy,11,pp.383~387.
[32]Lusting,H.,and VAN,S.,2005,“Housing Collateral,Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia:An Empirical Perspective”,Journal of Finance,60,pp.1167~1219.
[33]Mankiw,N.Gregory,and David,N.Weil.,1989,“The Baby Boom,the Baby Bust,and the Housing Market”,Regional Science and Urban Economics,vol.19(5),pp.235~58.
[34]Muellbauer,J,and Murphy A.,1997,“Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market”,The Economic Journal,vol.107(11),pp.1701~1727.
[35]Pagano,M.,1990,Discussion,Economic Policy,11,pp.387~390.
[36]Sinai,T.,and Souleles,S.,2005,“Owner-occupied Housing as a Hedge against Rent Risk”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,120,pp.763~789.
[37]Skinner,J.,1996,“Is housing wealth a sideshow?”,In D.Wise(Ed.),Advances in the economics of aging.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.241~270.
[38]Slacalek,J.,2009,“What Drives Personal Consumption?The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth”,The B.E.Journal of Macroeconomics,vol.9(1),pp.1~30.
[39]Sonali,D.,Rangan,G.,Patrick T.,2011,“Bubbles in South African House Prices and Their Impact on Consumption”,Journal of Real Estate Literature,vol.9(1),pp.71~91.
[40]Wang,X.,and Y.Wen.,“Can Rising Housing Prices Explain China’s High Household Saving Rate”,Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review,93,pp.67~88.
(1)由国家统计局城调队收集。
(2)家庭为了购房而牺牲消费的现象。
(3)借鉴需求价格弹性的概念来定义效用住房弹性,即住房拥有量变化1%所引起的家庭效用变化的百分比。
(4)事实上,家庭为追求更好居住品质,也可以换成更大的房子。为简化分析,模型中采用家庭换小房子情形,以体现住房变现能力。
(5)第二期为预期变量。
(6)α_2/1+r-1/(1+r)~2=a_2+a_2r-1/(1+r)~2,,持房成本(α_2)主要体现在房产税上,目前,上海为0.4%-0.6%,重庆为0.5%-1.2%;国外平均在1%-3%之间;贴现率r一般等于存款利率,2%-5%之间,即便α_2、r都取最高值,α_2+α_2r-1也为负值,从而α_2/1+r-1/<(1+r)~2<0.
(7)持房成本比例正常是指,如注释6所示,房产税只占房价很小比例。
[2]戴颖杰,周奎省:《房价变动对家庭消费行为影响的实证分析》,《宏观经济研究》,2012年第3期。
[3]邓健,张玉新:《房价波动对家庭消费的影响机制》,《管理世界》,2011年第4期。
[4]哈继铭:《人口结构与城市化推动房地产发展》,《中国房地信息》,2007年第7期。
[5]黄静,屠梅曾:《房地产财富与消费:来自于家庭微观调查数据的证据》,《管理世界》,2009年第7期。
[6]李雄军,姚树洁:《计划生育、城市化与我国房地产市场的发展》,《当代经济科学》,2011年第5期。
[7]陆勇:《住房价格与消费支出关系研究》,《审计与经济研究》,2007年第21期。
[8]孙克:《地价、房价与家庭消费》,《山西财经大学学报》,2012年第2期。
[9]肖卫国,郑开元,袁威:《住房价格、消费与中国货币政策最优选择:基于异质性房价预期的视角》,《经济评论》,2012年第2期。
[10]谢洁玉,吴斌珍,李宏彬,郑思齐:《中国城市房价与家庭消费》,《金融研究》,2012年第6期。
[11]徐小鹰:《房价上涨影响家庭消费的作用机制分析》,《经济问题》,2012年第10期。
[12]颜色,朱国钟:《“房奴效应”还是“财富效应”》,《管理世界》,2013年第3期。
[13]赵君丽:《人口变化与房地产需求——人口结构变化与房地产周期相关性研究》,《城市开发》,2002年第8期。
[14]赵西亮,梁文泉,李实:《房价上涨能够解释中国城镇家庭高储蓄率吗——基于CHIP微观数据的实证分析》,《经济学季刊》,2013年第1期。
[15]Alexander,L.,and Torsten,S.,2004,“The Relationship between Stock Prices,House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries”,The B.E.Journal of Macroeconomics,vol.4(1),pp.1~28.
[16]Aoki,K.,Proudman,J.,and Vlieghe,J.,2001,“House Prices,Consumption and Monetary Policy:a Financial Accelerator Approach”,Journal of Financial Intermediation,13,pp.414~35.
[17]Attanasio,O.,Andew,L.,Robert,H.,&Matthew,W.,2011,“Do House Prices Drive Consumption Growth?The Coincident Cycles of House Prices and Consumption in the UK”,Journal of the European Economic Association,vol.9(3),pp.399~435.
[18]Attanasio,O.,James,B.,Costas,M.,&Guglielmo,W.,1995,“Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption”,NBER Working Paper Series,No.5350.
[19]Attanasio,O.,Laura,B.,Robert,H.,&Andrew,L.,2009,“Booms and Busts:Consumption,House Prices and Expectations”,Economic,76,pp.20~50.
[20]Bottazzi,R.,Hamish,L.,Matthew,W.,2007,“Why Do Home Owners Work Longer Hours?”,The Institute for Fiscal Studies,WP10/07.
[21]Buiter,H.,2010,”Housing Wealth isn’t Wealth”,Economics,vol.3(22),pp.1~29.
[22]Calcagno,R.,Fornero,E.,Rossi,M.,2009,“The Effect of House Prices on Household Consumption in Italy”,J Real Estate Finan Econ,39,pp.284~300.
[23]Campbell,J.,and Cocco,J.,2007,“How Do House Prices Affect Consumption?Evidence from Micro Data”,Journal of Monetary Economics,54,pp.591~621.
[24]Case,K.,Shiller,R.,Quigley,J.,2005,“Comparing Wealth Effects:The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market”,Advances in Macroeconomics,vol.5(1),pp.1235~1253.
[25]Engelhardt,G.,1994,“House Prices and the Decision to Save for Down Payments”,Journal of Urban Economics,30,pp.209~237.
[26]Engelhardt,G.,1996,“House prices and home owner saving behavior”,Regional Science and Urban Economics,26,pp.313~336.
[27]Iacoviello,M.,2005,“House Prices,Borrowing Constraints,and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle”,American Economic Review,vol.95(3),pp.739~764.
[28]Iacoviello,M.and S.Neri.,2010,“Housing Market Spillovers:Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model”,American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,vol.2(2),pp.125~164.
[29]Janine,A.,Muellbauer,J.,and Murphy A.,“Housing wealth and UK consumption”,Economic Outlook,10,pp.11~20.
[30]Jan,K.,Jan,W.,2004,“Do stock prices affect house prices?Evidence for the Netherlands”,Applied Economic Letters,11,pp.741~744.
[31]King,M.,1990.Discussion[J].Economic Policy,11,pp.383~387.
[32]Lusting,H.,and VAN,S.,2005,“Housing Collateral,Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia:An Empirical Perspective”,Journal of Finance,60,pp.1167~1219.
[33]Mankiw,N.Gregory,and David,N.Weil.,1989,“The Baby Boom,the Baby Bust,and the Housing Market”,Regional Science and Urban Economics,vol.19(5),pp.235~58.
[34]Muellbauer,J,and Murphy A.,1997,“Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market”,The Economic Journal,vol.107(11),pp.1701~1727.
[35]Pagano,M.,1990,Discussion,Economic Policy,11,pp.387~390.
[36]Sinai,T.,and Souleles,S.,2005,“Owner-occupied Housing as a Hedge against Rent Risk”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,120,pp.763~789.
[37]Skinner,J.,1996,“Is housing wealth a sideshow?”,In D.Wise(Ed.),Advances in the economics of aging.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.241~270.
[38]Slacalek,J.,2009,“What Drives Personal Consumption?The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth”,The B.E.Journal of Macroeconomics,vol.9(1),pp.1~30.
[39]Sonali,D.,Rangan,G.,Patrick T.,2011,“Bubbles in South African House Prices and Their Impact on Consumption”,Journal of Real Estate Literature,vol.9(1),pp.71~91.
[40]Wang,X.,and Y.Wen.,“Can Rising Housing Prices Explain China’s High Household Saving Rate”,Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review,93,pp.67~88.
(1)由国家统计局城调队收集。
(2)家庭为了购房而牺牲消费的现象。
(3)借鉴需求价格弹性的概念来定义效用住房弹性,即住房拥有量变化1%所引起的家庭效用变化的百分比。
(4)事实上,家庭为追求更好居住品质,也可以换成更大的房子。为简化分析,模型中采用家庭换小房子情形,以体现住房变现能力。
(5)第二期为预期变量。
(6)α_2/1+r-1/(1+r)~2=a_2+a_2r-1/(1+r)~2,,持房成本(α_2)主要体现在房产税上,目前,上海为0.4%-0.6%,重庆为0.5%-1.2%;国外平均在1%-3%之间;贴现率r一般等于存款利率,2%-5%之间,即便α_2、r都取最高值,α_2+α_2r-1也为负值,从而α_2/1+r-1/<(1+r)~2<0.
(7)持房成本比例正常是指,如注释6所示,房产税只占房价很小比例。