人口年龄结构变动的经济效应——基于福建省的研究
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摘要
梳理人口年龄结构变动影响经济增长的理论框架,在此基础上构建了福建省经济增长与人口年龄结构变动的线性回归模型,以验证两者的关系,为保证结果的可靠性引入了技术进步、结构转变、制度变迁等控制变量。结果显示,总抚养系数变动与福建省经济增长负相关,但影响程度相对较小,而且其影响主要是由少儿抚养系数变动引起的,而在未来这种影响将逐步减少。为充分利用人口年龄结构优势,提出以下政策建议:加大就业促进力度,促进人力资本积累,完善养老保障制度,分计划延长退休年龄。
This paper discusses the theoretical framework of the impact of population age structure on economic growth. On this basis,we construct a linear regression model of economic growth and population age structure change in Fujian Province to verify the relationship between them. To ensure the reliability of the results,this paper introduces the technological progress,structural change,institutional change and other control variables. The results show that the change of the total support coefficient is negatively correlated with the economic growth of Fujian Province,but the influence degree is relatively small,which is mainly caused by the change of the child support coefficient,and in the future this effect will be gradually reduced. In order to make full use of the advantages of population age structure,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: increasing employment promotion,promoting human capital accumulation,and the old-age security system,and extendting the retirement age step by step.
This paper discusses the theoretical framework of the impact of population age structure on economic growth. On this basis,we construct a linear regression model of economic growth and population age structure change in Fujian Province to verify the relationship between them. To ensure the reliability of the results,this paper introduces the technological progress,structural change,institutional change and other control variables. The results show that the change of the total support coefficient is negatively correlated with the economic growth of Fujian Province,but the influence degree is relatively small,which is mainly caused by the change of the child support coefficient,and in the future this effect will be gradually reduced. In order to make full use of the advantages of population age structure,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: increasing employment promotion,promoting human capital accumulation,and the old-age security system,and extendting the retirement age step by step.
引文
[1]福建省统计局.福建统计年鉴—2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
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[15]LEE RONALD,MASON ANDREW,MILLER TIMOTHY.Life Cycle Saving and the Demographic Transition:The Case of Taiwan[J].The Population Council,2000(26):194-219.
[16]LI HONGBIN,ZHANG JIE,ZHANG JUNSEN.Effects of Longevity and Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth:Evidence from a Panel of Cross Countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,84(1):138-154.
[17]钟水映,李魁.劳动力抚养负担对居民储蓄率的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2009(1):44-53.
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[23]王颖,佟健,蒋正华.人口红利、经济增长与人口政策[J].人口研究,2010,34(5):30-36.
[24]金华林,刘伟岩.城市化、人口红利与日本经济增长关系研究[J].人口学刊,2017(2):37-46.
[25]郭熙保,段岳兰.人口转型与经济增长——中等收入阶段视角[J].财经科学,2017(3):27-39.
[26]车士义,郭琳.结构转变、制度变迁下的人口红利与经济增长[J].人口研究,2011,35(2):5-16.
[27]王永康,叶先宝.福建省全要素生产率计算与分析:1952~2005年[J].华东经济管理,2007(4):4-7.
[28]黄宗远,宫汝凯.中国省区物质资本存量的重估:1978~2007年[J].广西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2010,46(1):79-85.
[29]林毅.制度变迁对中国经济增长影响的实证研究[D].成都:西南交通大学经济与管理学院,2013.
[30]金玉国.宏观制度变迁对转型时期中国经济增长的贡献[J].财经科学,2001(2):24-28.
[31]刘文革,高伟,张苏.制度变迁的度量与中国经济增长——基于中国1952~2006年数据的实证分析[J].经济学家,2008(6):48-55.
[32]刘小兰.人口红利变动对福建经济增长的影响研究[D].福州:福建师范大学经济学院,2015.
[33]翟文华,周志太.经济增长的人口红利新解[J].现代经济探讨,2017(1):18-22.
[34]周卫民.中国经济存在“管理红利”吗?——证据与增长贡献[J].云南财经大学学报,2017(2):3-11.
[35]蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009,(1):4-12.
[2]LINDH THOMAS,MALMBERG BO.Age Structure Effects and Growth in the OECD,1950–1990[J].Journal of Population Economics,1999,12(3):431-449.
[3]J BAILEY-M.More Power to the Pill:the Impact of Contraceptive Freedom on Women’s Life Cycle Labor Supply[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,(1):289-320.
[4]DCANNING.The Impact of Ageing on Asian Development[C]//Seminar on Ageing Asia:A New Challenge for the Region,ADB Annual Meeting,Kyoto,Japan,2007:
[5]穆光宗.中国的人口红利:反思与展望[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2008(3):5-13.
[6]钟水映,李魁.人口红利、空间外溢与省域经济增长[J].管理世界,2010(4):14-23,186-187.
[7]HAMID FARUQEE,MARTIN-MU··HLEISEN.Population Aging in Japan:Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability[J].Japan and the World Economy,2003,15(2):185-210.
[8]ANDERSSON BJORN.Scandinavian Evidence on Growth and Age Structure[J].Regional Studies,2001,35(5).
[9]JOSHI S SCHULTZ-T-P.Family Planning as an Investment in Development:Evaluation of a Program’s Consequences in Matlab[J].Bangladesh,Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper,2007,951.
[10]郭琳,车士义.中国的劳动参与率、人口红利与经济增长[J].中央财经大学学报,2011,289(9):47-53.
[11]MODIGLIANI F.,BRUMBERG-R.Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function:An Interpretation of Cross-section data[J].Franco Modigliani,1954(1):388-436.
[12]MODIGLIANI F.,ANDO-A.Impacts of Fiscal Actions on Aggregate Income and the Monetarist Controversy:Theory and Evidence[J].Monetarism,North-Holland Publishing Company,Amsterdam,1976:17-42.
[13]袁志刚,宋铮.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度与最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000(11):24-32.
[14]王维国,徐勇,李秋影.我国人口年龄结构变动对经济发展影响的定量分析[J].市场与人口分析,2004(6):1-8.
[15]LEE RONALD,MASON ANDREW,MILLER TIMOTHY.Life Cycle Saving and the Demographic Transition:The Case of Taiwan[J].The Population Council,2000(26):194-219.
[16]LI HONGBIN,ZHANG JIE,ZHANG JUNSEN.Effects of Longevity and Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth:Evidence from a Panel of Cross Countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,84(1):138-154.
[17]钟水映,李魁.劳动力抚养负担对居民储蓄率的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2009(1):44-53.
[18]H LEFF-N.Dependency rates and savings rates[J].The American Economic Review,1969,59(5):886-896.
[19]王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素[J].人口研究,2004(5):3-12.
[20]周祝平.人口红利、刘易斯转折点与经济增长[J].中国图书评论,2007(9):4-12.
[21]BLOOM,E.DAVID,WILLIAMSON,ET AL.Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia[J].World Bank,1998,12(3):419-455.
[22]王金营,杨磊.中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证[J].人口学刊,2010,3(5):17-26.
[23]王颖,佟健,蒋正华.人口红利、经济增长与人口政策[J].人口研究,2010,34(5):30-36.
[24]金华林,刘伟岩.城市化、人口红利与日本经济增长关系研究[J].人口学刊,2017(2):37-46.
[25]郭熙保,段岳兰.人口转型与经济增长——中等收入阶段视角[J].财经科学,2017(3):27-39.
[26]车士义,郭琳.结构转变、制度变迁下的人口红利与经济增长[J].人口研究,2011,35(2):5-16.
[27]王永康,叶先宝.福建省全要素生产率计算与分析:1952~2005年[J].华东经济管理,2007(4):4-7.
[28]黄宗远,宫汝凯.中国省区物质资本存量的重估:1978~2007年[J].广西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2010,46(1):79-85.
[29]林毅.制度变迁对中国经济增长影响的实证研究[D].成都:西南交通大学经济与管理学院,2013.
[30]金玉国.宏观制度变迁对转型时期中国经济增长的贡献[J].财经科学,2001(2):24-28.
[31]刘文革,高伟,张苏.制度变迁的度量与中国经济增长——基于中国1952~2006年数据的实证分析[J].经济学家,2008(6):48-55.
[32]刘小兰.人口红利变动对福建经济增长的影响研究[D].福州:福建师范大学经济学院,2015.
[33]翟文华,周志太.经济增长的人口红利新解[J].现代经济探讨,2017(1):18-22.
[34]周卫民.中国经济存在“管理红利”吗?——证据与增长贡献[J].云南财经大学学报,2017(2):3-11.
[35]蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009,(1):4-12.