人口转型与中国农业可持续增长
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摘要
禀赋性资源的约束性,已成为农业可持续增长的瓶颈。农业人口生产由数量偏好向质量偏好转变带来的技术进步型农业的增长方式,有效地保证了农业的可持续增长。而农业可持续增长是一种不依赖传统生产要素增加,却是以农业技术进步为源泉的农业生产总量的增长。本文通过对人口转型影响要素和技术进步中介效应的计量分析,验证了人口转型通过对农业技术进步的影响进而促进农业可持续增长的途径,也即验证了人口转型、技术进步与农业可持续增长三者间的关系。优化教育资源合力打造适宜农民培养体系实现农业人口转型,有效保证农业科技的进步和推广应用,是保障农业可持续增长的有效措施。
The restraint of resource endowment has become the bottleneck of the agricultural sustainable growth.With the transition of agriculture population production quantity preference turning to quality preference,the way of agricultural growth based on technological progress provides effective guarantee for agricultural sustainable growth.The agricultural sustainable growth does not rely on traditional production factors,but benefits from the growth of total agricultural production based on the technological progress.Both the influencing factors of demographic transition and mediated effects of technological progress are analyzed in this paper.The results confirm that the demographic transition,technological progress and agricultural sustainable growth are closely connected.Optimizing educational resources can build a suitable farmer training system,further to realize the demographic transition.The agriculture sustainable growth can be effectively promoted by the progress and application of technology,and demographic transition.
The restraint of resource endowment has become the bottleneck of the agricultural sustainable growth.With the transition of agriculture population production quantity preference turning to quality preference,the way of agricultural growth based on technological progress provides effective guarantee for agricultural sustainable growth.The agricultural sustainable growth does not rely on traditional production factors,but benefits from the growth of total agricultural production based on the technological progress.Both the influencing factors of demographic transition and mediated effects of technological progress are analyzed in this paper.The results confirm that the demographic transition,technological progress and agricultural sustainable growth are closely connected.Optimizing educational resources can build a suitable farmer training system,further to realize the demographic transition.The agriculture sustainable growth can be effectively promoted by the progress and application of technology,and demographic transition.
引文
[1]姚成胜.城市化进程中的粮食安全变化研究——以中部地区为例[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014:60-62.
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[4]托达罗.发展经济学(原书第11版)[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2014.
[5]郭剑雄,李志俊.劳动力选择性转移下的农业发展——转变中国农业发展方式研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2012.
[6]Oded Galor,David N.Weil,Population,Technology and Growth:From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition[J].American Economic Review,2000(9):806-828.
[7]蔡昉.人口红利与中国经济可持续增长[J].甘肃社会科学,2013(1):1-4.
[8]David de la Croix,Thomas Lindh,Bo Malmberg.Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden:1750~2050[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2009(31):132-148.
[9]Mario Coccia.Driving forces of technological change:The relation between population growth and technological innovation——Analysis of the optimal interaction across countries[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2014(82):52-65.
[10]郭剑雄,李志俊.人口偏好逆转、家庭分工演进与农民收入增长——基于中国农户经验的分析[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2010(11):103-112.
[11]刘琦,郭剑雄.人口生产数量偏好向质量偏好的转变[J].西北师范大学学报,2013,50(5):109-117.
[12]Ronald Lee,Andrew Mason.Fertility,Human Capital,and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition[J].European Journal of Population,2010(26):159.
[13]温忠麟,叶宝娟.中介效应分析:方法和模型发展[J].心理科学进展,2014(5):731-745.
[14]Boqiang Lin,Rilong Fei.Analyzing inter-factor substitution and technical progress in the Chinese agricultural sector[J].Europ.J.Agronomy,2015(66):54–61.
(1)虚拟变量按照CGSS2013中的数据划分方法设定。
[2]杭帆,郭剑雄.人口转型、技术进步与中国农业的可持续增长[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2016(1):66-75.
[3]郭剑雄.人口偏好转变下的农业发展[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2010:71.
[4]托达罗.发展经济学(原书第11版)[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2014.
[5]郭剑雄,李志俊.劳动力选择性转移下的农业发展——转变中国农业发展方式研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2012.
[6]Oded Galor,David N.Weil,Population,Technology and Growth:From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition[J].American Economic Review,2000(9):806-828.
[7]蔡昉.人口红利与中国经济可持续增长[J].甘肃社会科学,2013(1):1-4.
[8]David de la Croix,Thomas Lindh,Bo Malmberg.Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden:1750~2050[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2009(31):132-148.
[9]Mario Coccia.Driving forces of technological change:The relation between population growth and technological innovation——Analysis of the optimal interaction across countries[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2014(82):52-65.
[10]郭剑雄,李志俊.人口偏好逆转、家庭分工演进与农民收入增长——基于中国农户经验的分析[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2010(11):103-112.
[11]刘琦,郭剑雄.人口生产数量偏好向质量偏好的转变[J].西北师范大学学报,2013,50(5):109-117.
[12]Ronald Lee,Andrew Mason.Fertility,Human Capital,and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition[J].European Journal of Population,2010(26):159.
[13]温忠麟,叶宝娟.中介效应分析:方法和模型发展[J].心理科学进展,2014(5):731-745.
[14]Boqiang Lin,Rilong Fei.Analyzing inter-factor substitution and technical progress in the Chinese agricultural sector[J].Europ.J.Agronomy,2015(66):54–61.
(1)虚拟变量按照CGSS2013中的数据划分方法设定。