延迟退休年龄是否会带来二次人口红利?
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摘要
延迟退休年龄是人口老龄化背景下我国经济转型时期提出的重大决策,但国内学者对延迟退休是否可以带来二次人口红利的观点存在分歧。在构建一般可计算均衡模型分析延迟退休对生产、消费等影响的理论机理的基础上,通过模拟其变化结果得出:延迟退休在短期内会带来社会储蓄率的增长,促进社会财富积累,并为整个社会投资和消费提供动力,从而推动经济增长实现第二次人口红利。认为延迟退休年龄适应中国人口结构变化的现实背景,在一定程度上可以缓解人口老龄化在短期内产生的冲击,推动经济增长。
Postponing retirement age is proposed during economic transition period of our country,domestic scholars hold different ideas on whether postponing retirement age will bring the second demographic dividend. By building CGE model,this paper analysis postponing retirement theoretical mechanism of production,consumption and others,stimulates results of change.The results show that postpone retirement age leads to saving rate growth in short term; Further,accumulate social wealth,then achieve the second demographic dividend though investment and consumption booming. This paper points postpone retirement age can adapt to the reality of China's population structure change background,release population press,promote economic growth.
Postponing retirement age is proposed during economic transition period of our country,domestic scholars hold different ideas on whether postponing retirement age will bring the second demographic dividend. By building CGE model,this paper analysis postponing retirement theoretical mechanism of production,consumption and others,stimulates results of change.The results show that postpone retirement age leads to saving rate growth in short term; Further,accumulate social wealth,then achieve the second demographic dividend though investment and consumption booming. This paper points postpone retirement age can adapt to the reality of China's population structure change background,release population press,promote economic growth.
引文
蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009,(1):2-10+111.
Mason A.,Lee R.,2006,“Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers:Introducing Age into National Accounts”,No 12770,NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc.
Mason A.,Lee R.,2007,“Transfers,Capital,and Consumption over the Demographic Transition”,Cheltenham,UK;Northampton,MA:Edward Elgar:128-162.
朱波.合理退休年龄影响因素的理论分析及实证研究[J].人口与经济,2015,(1):11-21.
金刚.中国退休年龄的现状、问题及实施延迟退休的必要性分析[J].社会保障研究,2010,(2):32-38.
柳清瑞,金刚.人口红利转变、老龄化与提高退休年龄[J].人口与发展,2011,(4):39-47+63.
袁中美.延迟退休与养老金替代率的探讨[J].人口与经济,2013,(1):101-106.
袁磊.延迟退休能解决养老保险资金缺口问题吗?——72种假设下三种延迟方案的模拟[J].人口与经济,2014,(4):82-93.
曾燕、郭延峰、张玲.基于长寿风险与OLG模型的延迟退休决策[J].金融经济学研究,2013,(4):83-93.
袁志刚,宋铮.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度与最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000,(11):24-32+79.
孟令国,王清,胡广.二次人口红利视角下国民储蓄率影响因素分析[J].经济科学,2013,(5):9-18.
杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响[J].中国社会科学,2013,(8):47-66+205.
唐代盛,乌拉尔·沙尔赛开,邓力源.人口红利:基于中国储蓄数据的实证研究[J].社会科学研究,2014,(2):108-114.
杨英,林焕荣.基于理性预期的第二人口红利与储蓄率[J].产经评论,2013,(2):113-125.
蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009,(1):1-10.
张现苓.中国未来“第二次人口红利”探讨——基于人口年龄结构与居民储蓄关系的分析[J].西北人口,2014,(3):27-32.
Feldstein,Social Security,Induced Retirement and Aggregate Captial Accumulation[J].The Journal of Political Economy,1974,82,5,905-926.
Renata Bottazzi,Tullio Jappelli,Mario Padula,Retirement Expectations,Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation[J].CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R.Discussion Papers,2005,No 4882.
Emma Aguila,Personal Retirement Accounts and Saving[J].Working Paper,2008,600.
Euwals,R.,Do Mandatory Savings Decrease Household Savings?Evidence for the Netherlands[J].IZA Discussion Paper,2000,No.113.
Aylit Tina Romm,Retirement Date Effects on Pre-Retirement Wealth Accumulation:An Analysis of US Households[J].Working Paper,2012,266.
Modigliani,F.,The Life-Cycle Hypothesis and Intercountry Differences in the Saving Ratio[M].1970,in W.A.Eltis,M.F.G.Scott and J.N.Wolfe(eds),Induction,Growth,and Trade:Essays in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod,Oxford:Oxford University Press.
Modigliani,Sterling,Determinants of Private Saving with Special Reference to the Role of Social Security-Cross Country Tests[M].1983,in F.Modigliani and R.Hemming(eds),The Determinants of National Saving and Wealth:Proceedings of A Conference Held by the Inter-national Economic Association at Bergamo,Italy,London:Macmillan Press.
Charles Yuji Horioka,Aging and Saving in Asia[J].Pacific Economic Review,2010,15:1,46-55.
Bosworth,B.P.,G.,Chodorow-Reich,Saving and Demographic Change:The Global Dimension[J].2006,Population Aging Working Paper,Brookings Institution,Washington,DC.
Charles Horioka,Why Is Japan’s Private Saving Rate So High?1989.in R.Sato and T.Negishi(eds),Developments in Japanese Economics,Tokyo:Academic Press,Harcourt Brace Jovanov-ich Publishers.
Helmuth Cremer and Pierre Pestieau,The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement[J].International Tax and Public Finance,2003,vol.10,issue 4,419-34.
Aylit Tina Romm,Retirement Date Effects on Pre-Retirement Wealth Accumulation:An Analysis of US Households[J].2012,No266 ,Working Papers from Economic Research Southern Africa.
Deaton,A.,C.Paxson,The Effects of Economic and Population Growth on National Savings and Inequality[J].Demography,1997,34,97-114.
Talosaga Talosaga,Mark Vink,The Effect of Public Pension Eligibility Age on Household Saving:Evidence from a New Zealand Natural Experiment[J].New Zealand Treasury Working Paper,2014,14/21.
Kelley,A.,R.,Schmidt,Savings,Dependency,and Development[J].Journal of Population Economics,1996,9,365-386.
Higgins,M.,Demography,National Savings,and International Capital Flows[J].International Economic Review,1998,39,343-369.
Krugman,P.,The Myth of Asia’s Miracle[J].Foreign Affairs,1994,62-78.
Paul A.Samuelson,An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money[J].Journal of Political Economy,1958,Vol.66,No.6,467-482.
Loayza,N.K.,Schmidt-Hebbel,L.Serven,What Drives Private Saving across the World?[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2000,82,165-81.
Schrooten,Stephan,Private Savings and Transition:Dynamic Panel Data Evidence from Accession Countries[J].Economics of Transition,2005,13,287-309.
Johansen Leif.A Multi-Sectoral Study of Economic Growth[M].Amsterdam:North-Holland,1960.
Alan J.Auerbach,Laurence J.Kotlikoff,Demographics,Fiscal Policy,and U.S.Saving in the 1980s and Beyond[J].NBER Working Paper,1989,No.3150.
Auerbach A.,Laurence Kotlikoff,Dynamic Fiscal Policy[M].1987,Cambridge University Press,Cambridge.
李凯,张生勃.中国资本、劳动、消费的有效税率测算——基于2003-2010年数据的实证研究[J].税收经济研究,2012,(4):83-89.
梁红梅,张卫峰.中国消费、劳动和资本收入有效税率估算研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2014,(12):3-12.
白重恩,张琼.中国的资本回报率及其影响因素分析[J].世界经济,2014,(10):3-30.
赵永,王劲峰,蔡焕杰.水资源问题的可计算一般均衡模型研究综述[J].水科学进展,2008,(5):756-762.
(1)黄金积累律:使稳态时的人均消费达到最大化的资本量
Mason A.,Lee R.,2006,“Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers:Introducing Age into National Accounts”,No 12770,NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc.
Mason A.,Lee R.,2007,“Transfers,Capital,and Consumption over the Demographic Transition”,Cheltenham,UK;Northampton,MA:Edward Elgar:128-162.
朱波.合理退休年龄影响因素的理论分析及实证研究[J].人口与经济,2015,(1):11-21.
金刚.中国退休年龄的现状、问题及实施延迟退休的必要性分析[J].社会保障研究,2010,(2):32-38.
柳清瑞,金刚.人口红利转变、老龄化与提高退休年龄[J].人口与发展,2011,(4):39-47+63.
袁中美.延迟退休与养老金替代率的探讨[J].人口与经济,2013,(1):101-106.
袁磊.延迟退休能解决养老保险资金缺口问题吗?——72种假设下三种延迟方案的模拟[J].人口与经济,2014,(4):82-93.
曾燕、郭延峰、张玲.基于长寿风险与OLG模型的延迟退休决策[J].金融经济学研究,2013,(4):83-93.
袁志刚,宋铮.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度与最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000,(11):24-32+79.
孟令国,王清,胡广.二次人口红利视角下国民储蓄率影响因素分析[J].经济科学,2013,(5):9-18.
杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响[J].中国社会科学,2013,(8):47-66+205.
唐代盛,乌拉尔·沙尔赛开,邓力源.人口红利:基于中国储蓄数据的实证研究[J].社会科学研究,2014,(2):108-114.
杨英,林焕荣.基于理性预期的第二人口红利与储蓄率[J].产经评论,2013,(2):113-125.
蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009,(1):1-10.
张现苓.中国未来“第二次人口红利”探讨——基于人口年龄结构与居民储蓄关系的分析[J].西北人口,2014,(3):27-32.
Feldstein,Social Security,Induced Retirement and Aggregate Captial Accumulation[J].The Journal of Political Economy,1974,82,5,905-926.
Renata Bottazzi,Tullio Jappelli,Mario Padula,Retirement Expectations,Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation[J].CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R.Discussion Papers,2005,No 4882.
Emma Aguila,Personal Retirement Accounts and Saving[J].Working Paper,2008,600.
Euwals,R.,Do Mandatory Savings Decrease Household Savings?Evidence for the Netherlands[J].IZA Discussion Paper,2000,No.113.
Aylit Tina Romm,Retirement Date Effects on Pre-Retirement Wealth Accumulation:An Analysis of US Households[J].Working Paper,2012,266.
Modigliani,F.,The Life-Cycle Hypothesis and Intercountry Differences in the Saving Ratio[M].1970,in W.A.Eltis,M.F.G.Scott and J.N.Wolfe(eds),Induction,Growth,and Trade:Essays in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod,Oxford:Oxford University Press.
Modigliani,Sterling,Determinants of Private Saving with Special Reference to the Role of Social Security-Cross Country Tests[M].1983,in F.Modigliani and R.Hemming(eds),The Determinants of National Saving and Wealth:Proceedings of A Conference Held by the Inter-national Economic Association at Bergamo,Italy,London:Macmillan Press.
Charles Yuji Horioka,Aging and Saving in Asia[J].Pacific Economic Review,2010,15:1,46-55.
Bosworth,B.P.,G.,Chodorow-Reich,Saving and Demographic Change:The Global Dimension[J].2006,Population Aging Working Paper,Brookings Institution,Washington,DC.
Charles Horioka,Why Is Japan’s Private Saving Rate So High?1989.in R.Sato and T.Negishi(eds),Developments in Japanese Economics,Tokyo:Academic Press,Harcourt Brace Jovanov-ich Publishers.
Helmuth Cremer and Pierre Pestieau,The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement[J].International Tax and Public Finance,2003,vol.10,issue 4,419-34.
Aylit Tina Romm,Retirement Date Effects on Pre-Retirement Wealth Accumulation:An Analysis of US Households[J].2012,No266 ,Working Papers from Economic Research Southern Africa.
Deaton,A.,C.Paxson,The Effects of Economic and Population Growth on National Savings and Inequality[J].Demography,1997,34,97-114.
Talosaga Talosaga,Mark Vink,The Effect of Public Pension Eligibility Age on Household Saving:Evidence from a New Zealand Natural Experiment[J].New Zealand Treasury Working Paper,2014,14/21.
Kelley,A.,R.,Schmidt,Savings,Dependency,and Development[J].Journal of Population Economics,1996,9,365-386.
Higgins,M.,Demography,National Savings,and International Capital Flows[J].International Economic Review,1998,39,343-369.
Krugman,P.,The Myth of Asia’s Miracle[J].Foreign Affairs,1994,62-78.
Paul A.Samuelson,An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money[J].Journal of Political Economy,1958,Vol.66,No.6,467-482.
Loayza,N.K.,Schmidt-Hebbel,L.Serven,What Drives Private Saving across the World?[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2000,82,165-81.
Schrooten,Stephan,Private Savings and Transition:Dynamic Panel Data Evidence from Accession Countries[J].Economics of Transition,2005,13,287-309.
Johansen Leif.A Multi-Sectoral Study of Economic Growth[M].Amsterdam:North-Holland,1960.
Alan J.Auerbach,Laurence J.Kotlikoff,Demographics,Fiscal Policy,and U.S.Saving in the 1980s and Beyond[J].NBER Working Paper,1989,No.3150.
Auerbach A.,Laurence Kotlikoff,Dynamic Fiscal Policy[M].1987,Cambridge University Press,Cambridge.
李凯,张生勃.中国资本、劳动、消费的有效税率测算——基于2003-2010年数据的实证研究[J].税收经济研究,2012,(4):83-89.
梁红梅,张卫峰.中国消费、劳动和资本收入有效税率估算研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2014,(12):3-12.
白重恩,张琼.中国的资本回报率及其影响因素分析[J].世界经济,2014,(10):3-30.
赵永,王劲峰,蔡焕杰.水资源问题的可计算一般均衡模型研究综述[J].水科学进展,2008,(5):756-762.
(1)黄金积累律:使稳态时的人均消费达到最大化的资本量