余命延长条件下养老保险制度选择的劳动力供给质量效用分析
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摘要
由现收现付制向基金积累制转变的改革潮流是缓解人口老龄化对已有养老保险制度冲击的意愿体现。基金积累制的精算平衡解决了养老保险制度收不抵支的问题,却未能缓解宏观层面的长寿风险和微观层面的制度替代率下降,若考虑养老保险制度对劳动力供给质量的影响,这一变革潮流的合理性就更需斟酌了。本文选用包含人力资本投资决策的世代交替模型和内生经济增长模型,在余命延长条件下分析基金积累制、名义账户制、现收现付制等养老保险制度类型对理性个体人力资本投资决策的影响,进而分析其对单个劳动力素质和整体劳动力供给质量结构的作用。研究结果显示,在人口老龄化背景下,基金积累制和名义账户制可提高技术工人占比,优化劳动力供给质量结构;收入关联的现收现付制不仅有助于提高技术工人占比,还可以进一步提高技术工人的人力资本存量,也就是单个劳动力素质和整体劳动力供给质量结构均得到提高;与此同时,稳态经济增速取决于技术工人占比及其人力资本存量,这显示人口老龄化对经济增长有积极作用,收入关联的现收现付制优于其他养老保险制度,但由于非技术工人的单位养老金缴费更多,它不是精算公平的。研究结论从劳动力供给质量提升、经济增长的视角为养老保险制度结构调整提供新的依据。
Now PAYG schemes are replaced by defined contribution schemes. It is assumed that this change is conducive to the sustainability of social security under the condition of aging. Although actuarial balance of defined contribution schemes can make the revenue equal to the expenditure,the longevity risk is adding and the replacement rate of social security is decreasing. Then if we focus on the relationship between social security and the quality of labor supply,the rationality of defined contribution schemes is more skeptical. We would like to use two-period overlapping generations model in endogenous growth to study how pension plans affect investment strategy of human capital under the condition of adult longevity. There are four types of pension plans;they are fully-funded defined contribution scheme,nominal individual account,flat-rate benefit PAYG scheme and earing-related benefit PAYG scheme. We find that the earingrelated benefit PAYG scheme can increase training time and the proportion of skilled worker,while the fully-funded defined contribution scheme and the nominal individual account can only increase the proportion of skilled worker. Furthermore,the economic growth rate is composed of the proportion of skilled worker and the human capital of skilled worker. With this result,it is known that the PAYG schemes are better than the defined contribution schemes. This means the aging of population is in favor of the economic development,and the PAYG schemes are more effective than the others. But the PAYG schemes are actuarially unfair because the unskilled worker pay more for one unit of pension. With these results,the social security can be adjusted from the point of the quality of labor supply and economic development.
Now PAYG schemes are replaced by defined contribution schemes. It is assumed that this change is conducive to the sustainability of social security under the condition of aging. Although actuarial balance of defined contribution schemes can make the revenue equal to the expenditure,the longevity risk is adding and the replacement rate of social security is decreasing. Then if we focus on the relationship between social security and the quality of labor supply,the rationality of defined contribution schemes is more skeptical. We would like to use two-period overlapping generations model in endogenous growth to study how pension plans affect investment strategy of human capital under the condition of adult longevity. There are four types of pension plans;they are fully-funded defined contribution scheme,nominal individual account,flat-rate benefit PAYG scheme and earing-related benefit PAYG scheme. We find that the earingrelated benefit PAYG scheme can increase training time and the proportion of skilled worker,while the fully-funded defined contribution scheme and the nominal individual account can only increase the proportion of skilled worker. Furthermore,the economic growth rate is composed of the proportion of skilled worker and the human capital of skilled worker. With this result,it is known that the PAYG schemes are better than the defined contribution schemes. This means the aging of population is in favor of the economic development,and the PAYG schemes are more effective than the others. But the PAYG schemes are actuarially unfair because the unskilled worker pay more for one unit of pension. With these results,the social security can be adjusted from the point of the quality of labor supply and economic development.
引文
[1]Joelle H Y,Fong,Olivia S Mitchell and Benedict S K Koh.Longevity Risk Management in Singapore’s National Pension System[J].The Journal of Risk and Insurance,2011,78(4):961-981.
[2]郑秉文.中国养老金发展报告2014——向名义账户制转型[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2014.
[3]Pablo Antolin.Longevity Risk and Private Pensions[R].OECD Working Papers on Insurance and Private Pensions,No.3,OECD Publishing,2007.
[4]International Monetary Fund.The Financial Impact of Longevity Risk[R/OL].https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2012/01/pdf/c4.pdf.
[5]Henry J Aaron.Economic Effects of Social Security[M].Washington D C:The Brookings Institution,1982.
[6]Holzmann Robert.The World Bank Approach to Pension Reform[J].International Social Security Review,2000,53:11-34.
[7]Barr,Nicholas and Diamond,Peter.The Economics of Pensions[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2006,22(1):15-39.
[8]Chul-In Lee.Finite Sample Bias in IV Estimation of Intertemporal Labor Supply Models:Is the Intertemporal Substitution Elasticity Really Small?[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(4):638-646.
[9]Moshe Hazan.Longevity and Lifetime Labor Supply:Evidence and Implications[J].Econometrica,2009,77(6):1829-1863.
[10]F Docquier and O Paddison.Growth and Equity Effects of PAYG Pension Plans[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2003,(25):47-71.
[11]Le Garrec.Social Security,Income Inequality and Growth[J].Journal of Pension Economics and Finance,2012,11(1):53-70.
[12]杨雪,魏洪英.就业稳定性与收入差异:影响东北三省劳动力外流的动因分析[J].人口学刊,2016,(6):87-98.
[13]Zhang,Jie and Junsen Zhang.The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility,Saving,Schooling and Economic Growth:Theory and Evidence[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2005,107(1):45-66.
[14]Chen,Hung-Ju.Life Expectancy,Fertility,and Educational Investment[J].Journal of Population Economics,2010,23(1):37-56.
[15]Robert E Lucas.On the Mechanics of Economic Development[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22:3-42.
[16]Paul M Romer.Endogenous Technological Change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98:S71-S102.
(1)文中忽略所有行为人在生育与代际教育方面的差异,因而行为人的人力资本积累差异主要源于自我的继续教育决策。
[2]郑秉文.中国养老金发展报告2014——向名义账户制转型[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2014.
[3]Pablo Antolin.Longevity Risk and Private Pensions[R].OECD Working Papers on Insurance and Private Pensions,No.3,OECD Publishing,2007.
[4]International Monetary Fund.The Financial Impact of Longevity Risk[R/OL].https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2012/01/pdf/c4.pdf.
[5]Henry J Aaron.Economic Effects of Social Security[M].Washington D C:The Brookings Institution,1982.
[6]Holzmann Robert.The World Bank Approach to Pension Reform[J].International Social Security Review,2000,53:11-34.
[7]Barr,Nicholas and Diamond,Peter.The Economics of Pensions[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2006,22(1):15-39.
[8]Chul-In Lee.Finite Sample Bias in IV Estimation of Intertemporal Labor Supply Models:Is the Intertemporal Substitution Elasticity Really Small?[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(4):638-646.
[9]Moshe Hazan.Longevity and Lifetime Labor Supply:Evidence and Implications[J].Econometrica,2009,77(6):1829-1863.
[10]F Docquier and O Paddison.Growth and Equity Effects of PAYG Pension Plans[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2003,(25):47-71.
[11]Le Garrec.Social Security,Income Inequality and Growth[J].Journal of Pension Economics and Finance,2012,11(1):53-70.
[12]杨雪,魏洪英.就业稳定性与收入差异:影响东北三省劳动力外流的动因分析[J].人口学刊,2016,(6):87-98.
[13]Zhang,Jie and Junsen Zhang.The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility,Saving,Schooling and Economic Growth:Theory and Evidence[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2005,107(1):45-66.
[14]Chen,Hung-Ju.Life Expectancy,Fertility,and Educational Investment[J].Journal of Population Economics,2010,23(1):37-56.
[15]Robert E Lucas.On the Mechanics of Economic Development[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22:3-42.
[16]Paul M Romer.Endogenous Technological Change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98:S71-S102.
(1)文中忽略所有行为人在生育与代际教育方面的差异,因而行为人的人力资本积累差异主要源于自我的继续教育决策。