基于饱和负荷密度的城市远景空间负荷预测
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摘要
针对城市中长期发展过程中的电网规划问题,提出一种基于饱和负荷密度的城市远景空间负荷预测方法.基于粗糙集和元胞自动机理论模拟城市不同类型的用地动态变化过程,根据不同用地类型的土地转换规则预测规划区域内未来的土地使用类型及面积变化;基于logistic饱和负荷预测模型预测出不同用地类型的饱和负荷密度曲线;最终根据不同用地类型的饱和负荷密度曲线及面积预测出城市远景空间负荷分布,并通过案例验证所提出方法的有效性,为城市空间负荷预测的研究提供了理论参考.
Aiming at the power grid planning problem in the medium and long term development of cities,a forecasting method for urban prospective spatial load based on saturated load density was proposed. Based on the rough set and cellular automata theory,the dynamic change process of land use with different types in the cities was simulated,and the future type and area change of land use in the planning area were predicted according to the land conversion rules of different land use types. Based on the logistic saturated load forecasting model,the saturated load density curve of different land use types was predicted. According to the saturated load density curves and the area of different land use types,the urban prospective spatial load distribution was forecasted,and the validity of the proposed method was verified with examples,which could provided a theoretical reference for further research of urban spatial load forecasting.
Aiming at the power grid planning problem in the medium and long term development of cities,a forecasting method for urban prospective spatial load based on saturated load density was proposed. Based on the rough set and cellular automata theory,the dynamic change process of land use with different types in the cities was simulated,and the future type and area change of land use in the planning area were predicted according to the land conversion rules of different land use types. Based on the logistic saturated load forecasting model,the saturated load density curve of different land use types was predicted. According to the saturated load density curves and the area of different land use types,the urban prospective spatial load distribution was forecasted,and the validity of the proposed method was verified with examples,which could provided a theoretical reference for further research of urban spatial load forecasting.
引文
[1]刘杰锋,程浩忠,韩新阳,等.多维度饱和负荷预测方法及其应用[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015,27(2):44-50.(LIU Jie-feng,CHENG Hao-zhong,HAN Xin-yang,et al.Forecasting method and application of multidimensional saturated load[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2015,27(2):44-50.)
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[12]肖白,刘庆永,房龙江,等.基于模糊粗糙集理论和时空信息的空间负荷预测[J].电力建设,2017,38(1):58-67.(XIAO Bai,LIU Qing-yong,FANG Long-jiang,et al.Spatial load forecasting based on fuzzy rough set theory with spatial and temporal information[J].Electric Power Construction,2017,38(1):58-67.)
[13]刘自发,庞铖铖,王泽黎,等.基于云理论和元胞自动机理论的城市配电网空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(10):98-105.(LIU Zi-fa,PANG Cheng-cheng,WANG Ze-li,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution network based on cloud theory and cellular automata[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(10):98-105.)
[14]杨丽徙,王金风,陈根永,等.基于元胞自动机理论的电力负荷空间分布预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(4):15-20.(YANG Li-xi,WANG Jin-feng,CHEN Gen-yong,et al.Load spatial distribution forecasting model on cellular automata theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(4):15-20.)
[15]龙丹丽,黎静华,韦化.粗糙集法解多环境因素影响的母线负荷预测问题[J].电网技术,2013,37(5):1335-1340.(LONG Dan-li,LI Jing-hua,WEI Hua.Solution of multi environmental factor-influenced bus load forecasting by rough set method[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(5):1335-1340.)
[16]周湶,李健,孙才新,等.基于粗糙集和元胞自动机的配电网空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(25):68-73.(ZHOU Quan,LI Jian,SUN Cai-xin,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution networks based on rough sets and cellular automata[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(25):68-73.)
[2]肖欣,周渝慧,张宁,等.城市电力饱和负荷分析技术及其应用研究[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(6):146-152.(XIAO Xin,ZHOU Yu-hui,ZHANG Ning,et al.Survey of saturated load analysis technology for urban power system and its application[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(6):146-152.)
[3]Jia Y D,Li S H,Tan Y,et al.Improved parametric estimation of logistic model for saturated load forecast[C]//Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference.Shanghai,China,2012:112-116.
[4]崔凯,张丽娟,李敬如,等.天津市中心城区饱和负荷分析与预测[J].电力技术经济,2008,20(5):32-36.(CUI Kai,ZHANG Li-juan,LI Jing-ru,et al.Analysis and forecast of saturated load for the central city district of Tianjin[J].Electric Power Technologic Economics,2008,20(5):32-36.)
[5]陈屹东,程浩忠,黄锦华,等.情景分析在饱和负荷预测中的应用[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2016,28(6):7-13.(CHEN Yi-dong,CHENG Hao-zhong,HUANG Jinhua,et al.Application of scenario analysis in saturation load forecasting[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2016,28(6):7-13.)
[6]尚芳屹,杨宗麟,程浩忠,等.改进Verhulst模型在饱和负荷预测中的应用[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015,27(1):64-68.(SHANG Fang-yi,YANG Zong-lin,CHENG Haozhong,et al.Application of improved Verhulst model in saturation load forecasting[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2015,27(1):64-68.)
[7]赵会茹,周佳,李娜娜,等.滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测研究[J].中国电力,2015,48(3):21-26.(ZHAO Hui-ru,ZHOU Jia,LI Na-na,et al.Study on urban saturated power load forecasting based on rolling multi-dimension method[J].Electric Power,2015,48(3):21-26.)
[8]尚芳屹.组合预测在区域级饱和负荷预测中的应用[D].上海:上海交通大学,2013.(SHANG Fang-yi.Application of a combination model in regional saturation load forecasting[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiaotong University,2013.)
[9]杨修宇.基于负荷密度指标的空间负荷预测方法研究[D].吉林:东北电力大学,2014.(YANG Xiu-yu.Study on spatial load forecasting method based on the load density index[D].Jilin:Northeast Dianli University,2014.)
[10]李媛,武岩岩,王思琪.基于混沌时间序列的Elman神经网络工业用电预测[J].沈阳工业大学学报,2016,38(2):196-200.(LI Yuan,WU Yan-yan,WANG Si-qi.Elman neural network for forecasting industrial electricity consumption based on chaotic time series[J].Journal of Shenyang University of Technology,2016,38(2):196-200.)
[11]赵慧材,陈跃辉,陈瑞先,等.结合模糊粗糙集和支持向量机的电力负荷短期预测方法[J].中国电力,2015,48(2):45-48.(ZHAO Hui-cai,CHEN Yue-hui,CHEN Rui-xian,et al.A short-term power load forecasting method based on fuzzy rough sets and support vector machine[J].Electric Power,2015,48(2):45-48.)
[12]肖白,刘庆永,房龙江,等.基于模糊粗糙集理论和时空信息的空间负荷预测[J].电力建设,2017,38(1):58-67.(XIAO Bai,LIU Qing-yong,FANG Long-jiang,et al.Spatial load forecasting based on fuzzy rough set theory with spatial and temporal information[J].Electric Power Construction,2017,38(1):58-67.)
[13]刘自发,庞铖铖,王泽黎,等.基于云理论和元胞自动机理论的城市配电网空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(10):98-105.(LIU Zi-fa,PANG Cheng-cheng,WANG Ze-li,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution network based on cloud theory and cellular automata[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(10):98-105.)
[14]杨丽徙,王金风,陈根永,等.基于元胞自动机理论的电力负荷空间分布预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(4):15-20.(YANG Li-xi,WANG Jin-feng,CHEN Gen-yong,et al.Load spatial distribution forecasting model on cellular automata theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(4):15-20.)
[15]龙丹丽,黎静华,韦化.粗糙集法解多环境因素影响的母线负荷预测问题[J].电网技术,2013,37(5):1335-1340.(LONG Dan-li,LI Jing-hua,WEI Hua.Solution of multi environmental factor-influenced bus load forecasting by rough set method[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(5):1335-1340.)
[16]周湶,李健,孙才新,等.基于粗糙集和元胞自动机的配电网空间负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(25):68-73.(ZHOU Quan,LI Jian,SUN Cai-xin,et al.Spatial load forecasting for distribution networks based on rough sets and cellular automata[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(25):68-73.)