健康预期寿命国际比较及中国健康预期寿命预测研究
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摘要
健康预期寿命由预期寿命衍生而来,是人群保持完全健康状态尚能存活的期望年数,是评估人群健康水平的指标。健康预期寿命既能反映生命数量(长寿水平),又能反映生命质量(健康程度)。世界卫生组织在《1997年世界卫生报告》中呼吁在关心预期寿命的同时更要重视健康预期寿命,随后与健康预期寿命相关的国际研究、国际政策的战略规划逐步推广该指标的应用。目前发达国家十分重视健康预期寿命研究,将其纳入国家战略规划。本文系统梳理了相关国家和地区的健康预期寿命发展状况,根据发达国家健康预期寿命发展特征,采用健康预期寿命年均增加法和健康预期寿命和预期寿命差值法,对我国2020年及2030年健康预期寿命进行推测,为我国制定"健康中国"发展规划提供对策建议。2020年中国健康预期寿命为69.2岁左右(69.1~69.4),其中男性为67.2岁左右(67.1~67.4),女性为71.3岁左右(71.1~71.5);2030年中国健康预期寿命为70.9岁左右(70.6~71.2),其中男性为69.1岁左右(68.8~69.4),女性为72.7岁左右(72.4~73.1)。建议将健康预期寿命的发展纳入中国2030经济社会发展规划指标,建立中国健康预期寿命的监测指标体系。
Healthy life expectancy is derived from life expectancy,which is the number of years that the population can live in full health status,and is an indicator to assess the health level of the population.Healthy life expectancy can reflect both the quantity of life(longevity level)and the quality of life(degree of health). The world health organization,for the first time in the 1997 world health report,called for a global interest in life expectancy at the same time,more attention to healthy life expectancy. Since then,the international research related to healthy life expectancy,and the strategic plan of international policy,have also gradually promoted the application of the indicator. At present,many developed countries attach great importance to healthy life expectancy research,and put it into the national strategic plan. Based on analyzing international status of healthy life expectancy,this paper systematically combs the situation of healthy life expectancy of these countries and international organizations,which,in recent years,have put healthy life expectancy into the national plan. According to the characteristics of the developed countries' healthy life expectancy,this paper predicts the healthy life expectancy of China in 2020 and in 2030 by using the method of average annual increment of healthy life expectancy and the method of difference between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy,to provide countermeasures and suggestion for formulating "healthy China" plans. Through comprehensive considering several methods,the result shows that the healthy life expectancy of China in 2020 will be around 69.2 years(69.1-69.4),with male around 67.2(67.1-67.4)and female around 71.3(71.1-71.5),and shows that in 2030 it will be around 70.9 years(70.6-71.2),with male around 69.1(68.8-69.4)and female around 72.7(72.4-73.1). The paper suggests that we should put healthy life expectancy into economic and social development plan in the"thirteenth five-year"plan,and establish the monitoring index system of healthy life expectancy in China.
Healthy life expectancy is derived from life expectancy,which is the number of years that the population can live in full health status,and is an indicator to assess the health level of the population.Healthy life expectancy can reflect both the quantity of life(longevity level)and the quality of life(degree of health). The world health organization,for the first time in the 1997 world health report,called for a global interest in life expectancy at the same time,more attention to healthy life expectancy. Since then,the international research related to healthy life expectancy,and the strategic plan of international policy,have also gradually promoted the application of the indicator. At present,many developed countries attach great importance to healthy life expectancy research,and put it into the national strategic plan. Based on analyzing international status of healthy life expectancy,this paper systematically combs the situation of healthy life expectancy of these countries and international organizations,which,in recent years,have put healthy life expectancy into the national plan. According to the characteristics of the developed countries' healthy life expectancy,this paper predicts the healthy life expectancy of China in 2020 and in 2030 by using the method of average annual increment of healthy life expectancy and the method of difference between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy,to provide countermeasures and suggestion for formulating "healthy China" plans. Through comprehensive considering several methods,the result shows that the healthy life expectancy of China in 2020 will be around 69.2 years(69.1-69.4),with male around 67.2(67.1-67.4)and female around 71.3(71.1-71.5),and shows that in 2030 it will be around 70.9 years(70.6-71.2),with male around 69.1(68.8-69.4)and female around 72.7(72.4-73.1). The paper suggests that we should put healthy life expectancy into economic and social development plan in the"thirteenth five-year"plan,and establish the monitoring index system of healthy life expectancy in China.
引文
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[11]Launch of Healthy Ireland.A Framework for Improved Health and Wellbeing 2013-2025[Z/OL].http://health.gov.ie/blog/press-release/launch-of-healthy-ireland-a-framework-for-improved-health-and-wellbeing-2013-2025/.
[12]Murauskiene L,Janoniene R,Veniute M.Lithuania:Health System Review[J].Health Systems in Transition,2013,15(15):1-150.
[13]Murray CJ,Barber RM,Foreman KJ.Global,Regional,and National Disability-adjusted Life Years(DALYs)for 306Diseases and Injuries and Healthy Life Expectancy(HALE)for 188 Countries,1990-2013:Quantifying the Epidemiological Transition[J].Lancet,2015,386(10009):2145-2191.
[14]国家统计局.2015年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201602/t20160229_1323991.html.
[15]Aida J,Kondo K,Kondo N.Income Inequality,Social Capital and Self-rated Health and Dental Status in Older Japanese[J].Soc Sci Med,2011,73(10):1561-1568.
[16]Zaboli R,Tourani S,Seyedin SH.Prioritizing the Determinants of Social-health Inequality in Iran:A Multiple Attribute Decision Making Application[J].Iran Red Crescent Med J,2014,16(4):e12607.
[17]Marshall A,Jivraj S,Nazroo J.Does the Level of Wealth Inequality within an Area Influence the Prevalence of Depression amongst Older People?[J].Health&Place,2014,27(27):194-204.
(1)“健康红利”是指随着生产、生活、消费方式的改变、科技进步和环境改善,一个国家的人口健康状况不断改善,从而为经济发展、社会进步、素质提高提供有利的基础条件,整个国家呈现充满活力、蓬勃发展的良好局面。
[2]Nepomuceno,MR,Turra,CM.Trends in Healthy Life Expectancy among Older Brazilian Women between 1998 and2008[J].Rev Saude Publica,2015,49(1):1-8.
[3]Hargrove TW,Brown TH.A Life Course Approach to Inequality:Examining Racial/Ethnic Differences in the Relationship between Early Life Socioeconomic Conditions and Adult Health among Men[J].Ethn Dis,2015,25(3):313-320.
[4]Busse R,Blümel M.Germany:Health System Review[J].Health Systems in Transition,2014,16(2):1-296.
[5]Mathers C D,Sadana R,Salomon J A.Healthy Life Expectancy in 191 Countries,1999[J].Lancet,2001,357(9269):1685-1691.
[6]Sullivan D F.A Single Index of Mortality and Morbidity[J].HSMHA Health Rep,1971,86(4):347-354.
[7]Rogers A,Rogers R G,Belanger A.Longer Life but Worse Health?Measurement and Dynamics[J].The Gerontologist,1990,30(5):640-649.
[8]Bone M R.International Efforts to Measure Health Expectancy[J].J Epidemiol Community Health,1992,42(6):555-558.
[9]Robine J M,Cambois E,Nusselder W.The Joint Action on Healthy Life Years(JA:EHLEIS)[J].Archives of Public Health,2013,71(1):1-5.
[10]美国卫生和公共服务部疾病控制和预防中心,国家卫生统计中心.健康公民2010终评[Z/OL].https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hpdata2010/hp2010_final_review.pdf.
[11]Launch of Healthy Ireland.A Framework for Improved Health and Wellbeing 2013-2025[Z/OL].http://health.gov.ie/blog/press-release/launch-of-healthy-ireland-a-framework-for-improved-health-and-wellbeing-2013-2025/.
[12]Murauskiene L,Janoniene R,Veniute M.Lithuania:Health System Review[J].Health Systems in Transition,2013,15(15):1-150.
[13]Murray CJ,Barber RM,Foreman KJ.Global,Regional,and National Disability-adjusted Life Years(DALYs)for 306Diseases and Injuries and Healthy Life Expectancy(HALE)for 188 Countries,1990-2013:Quantifying the Epidemiological Transition[J].Lancet,2015,386(10009):2145-2191.
[14]国家统计局.2015年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201602/t20160229_1323991.html.
[15]Aida J,Kondo K,Kondo N.Income Inequality,Social Capital and Self-rated Health and Dental Status in Older Japanese[J].Soc Sci Med,2011,73(10):1561-1568.
[16]Zaboli R,Tourani S,Seyedin SH.Prioritizing the Determinants of Social-health Inequality in Iran:A Multiple Attribute Decision Making Application[J].Iran Red Crescent Med J,2014,16(4):e12607.
[17]Marshall A,Jivraj S,Nazroo J.Does the Level of Wealth Inequality within an Area Influence the Prevalence of Depression amongst Older People?[J].Health&Place,2014,27(27):194-204.
(1)“健康红利”是指随着生产、生活、消费方式的改变、科技进步和环境改善,一个国家的人口健康状况不断改善,从而为经济发展、社会进步、素质提高提供有利的基础条件,整个国家呈现充满活力、蓬勃发展的良好局面。