劳动力供给多维变化对制造业国际竞争力影响研究
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摘要
依据1990-2014年劳动力供给数量、质量、成本及制造业国际竞争力相关数据,构建VAR模型,考量劳动力供给变化对中国制造业国际竞争力影响。结果表明:劳动力供给数量减少不利于制造业国际竞争力提升;劳动力供给质量上升有利于提高制造业国际竞争力,但其作用具有明显的滞后效应;劳动力成本上升有利于增强制造业国际竞争力,这与成本上升倒逼低端制造业转型升级等相关。鉴此,既要通过全面放开计生政策甚至鼓励生育以缓解劳动力供给数量快速下降对制造业国际竞争力带来的负向冲击;又要基于市场导向,培养产业所需的各层各类人才;同时合理运用劳动力成本上升的倒逼机制促进低端制造业转型升级,提高中国制造业国际竞争力。
The quantity of labor supply has been decreasing,the average education years of labors has been prolonging and the labor cost has been increasing quickly in China.Under those conditions,the labor supply has been experiencing an unprecedented change and it will have a profound impact on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.Based on the1990~2014 year's data of the quantity,quality,cost of labor supply,and the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the effectiveness of the labors supply change on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry by constructing a VAR Model.The empirical conclusions are the following.Firstly,the decreasing of the labor quantity is unfavorable to enhance the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.Secondly,the increasing of the labor quality can enhance the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry,but it has a delayed effect.Thirdly,the rising of the labor cost can improve the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry and this may be related to the rising labor costs,forcing the low-end manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading.Therefore,we should relieve the negative impact of the rapid decline of labor supply on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry by relaxing the family planning policy completely,and even encouraging fertility.We should culture various talents based on the market demands.We also should make rational use of the forced mechanism of the rising labor costs to push forward the transformation and upgrading of the low-end manufacturing industry,and further to improve the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.
The quantity of labor supply has been decreasing,the average education years of labors has been prolonging and the labor cost has been increasing quickly in China.Under those conditions,the labor supply has been experiencing an unprecedented change and it will have a profound impact on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.Based on the1990~2014 year's data of the quantity,quality,cost of labor supply,and the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the effectiveness of the labors supply change on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry by constructing a VAR Model.The empirical conclusions are the following.Firstly,the decreasing of the labor quantity is unfavorable to enhance the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.Secondly,the increasing of the labor quality can enhance the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry,but it has a delayed effect.Thirdly,the rising of the labor cost can improve the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry and this may be related to the rising labor costs,forcing the low-end manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading.Therefore,we should relieve the negative impact of the rapid decline of labor supply on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry by relaxing the family planning policy completely,and even encouraging fertility.We should culture various talents based on the market demands.We also should make rational use of the forced mechanism of the rising labor costs to push forward the transformation and upgrading of the low-end manufacturing industry,and further to improve the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.
引文
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[16]刘巍.“人均受教育年限”三种计算方法的比较[J].北京统计,2003(6):19-20.
[17]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.
[2]李祥进,杨东宁,徐敏亚.中国劳动密集型制造业的生产力困境---企业社会责任的视角[J].南开管理评论,2012(3):122-130.
[3]王有鑫,赵雅婧.中国人口结构变动与制造业出口结构优化[J].南方人口,2013(5):61-70.
[4]刘传江,黄伊星.从业人口年龄结构对中国工业经济增长的贡献度研究[J].中国人口科学,2015(2):43-52.
[5]Schultz T W.Investing in people-the economics of population quality[M].California,University of California Press,1981.
[6]Grossman G,Elhanan H.Innovation and growth in the global economy[M].Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,1993.
[7]王志华,董存田.我国制造业结构与劳动力素质结构吻合度分析---兼论“民工荒”“技工荒”与大学生就业难问题[J].人口与经济,2012(5):1-7.
[8]阳立高,龚世豪,韩峰.劳动力供给变化对制造业结构优化的影响研究[J].财经研究,2017,43(2):122-134.
[9]Arthur L.Reflections on unlimited Lanum[M].New York,Academic Press,1972.
[10]张峰,薛惠锋,唐铭.制造业劳动生产率变动、能源资本及消费结构调整能否提升国际竞争力?[J].科学决策,2016(8):52-68.
[11]阳立高,刘念念,柒江艺.劳动力成本与利润差异对制造业升级的影响研究[J].财经理论与实践,2016,37(2):112-117.
[12]王恬.人力资本流动与技术溢出效应---来自我国制造业企业数据的实证研究[J].经济科学,2008(4):99-109.
[13]魏浩,毛日昇,张二震.中国制成品出口比较优势及贸易结构分析[J].世界经济,2005(2):21-33.
[14]胡昭玲,张蕊.中国制造业参与产品内国际分工的影响因素分析[J].世界经济研究,2008(3):3-8.
[15]刘志彪,张杰.我国本土制造业企业出口决定因素的实证分析[J].经济研究,2009,44(8):99-112.
[16]刘巍.“人均受教育年限”三种计算方法的比较[J].北京统计,2003(6):19-20.
[17]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.