从人口红利到制度红利:中国经济持续增长的动力转换
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摘要
改革开放40年,我国凭借人口红利实现了经济高速增长,创造了"中国奇迹",但是,也造成了我国前期粗放式的经济发展模式。近年,由于我国人口结构产生变化,"未富先老"给我国经济持续增长带来了不确定性因素。面对人口红利式微,如何进行制度创新,提高制度质量,跨越"中等收入陷阱",已经成为我国经济持续性增长的重要议题。分析我国制度红利对于经济持续增长的作用机制,可以为促进中国经济持续增长提供理论借鉴。
Since the reform and opening up, China achieved rapid economic growth with the demographicdividend, has created a"Chinese miracle", however, it also makes profligate economic development model. Inrecent years, due to the change of China's population structure, the truth of"age before it gets old"has broughtChina's sustained economic growth uncertainty, in the face of demographic dividend decay, how to carry outinstitution innovation in our country, improve the quality of institution, crossing the"middle-income trap", hasbecome the important issues. At the same time, it further analyzes the mechanism of the institutional profit, andthe dialectical relationship between the institutional profit and the demographic dividend, further put forwardsuggestions accordingly, for docking both profits in the new era, providing theoretical reference to promoteChina's sustained economic growth.
Since the reform and opening up, China achieved rapid economic growth with the demographicdividend, has created a"Chinese miracle", however, it also makes profligate economic development model. Inrecent years, due to the change of China's population structure, the truth of"age before it gets old"has broughtChina's sustained economic growth uncertainty, in the face of demographic dividend decay, how to carry outinstitution innovation in our country, improve the quality of institution, crossing the"middle-income trap", hasbecome the important issues. At the same time, it further analyzes the mechanism of the institutional profit, andthe dialectical relationship between the institutional profit and the demographic dividend, further put forwardsuggestions accordingly, for docking both profits in the new era, providing theoretical reference to promoteChina's sustained economic growth.
引文
[1]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J].经济研究,2010,47(4):4—13.
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[3]杨友才.制度变迁、路径依赖与经济增长的模型与实证分析——兼论中国制度红利[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,53(4):141—150.
[4]吴雪,周晓唯.人口红利、制度红利与中国经济增长[J].经济体制改革,2017,51(3):11—16.
[5]王伟同.中国人口红利的经济增长“尾效”研究——兼论刘易斯拐点后的中国经济[J].财贸经济,2012,30(11):14—20.
[6]任保平,郭晗.经济发展方式转变的创新驱动机制[J].学术研究,2013,29(2):69—75.
[7]杨瑞龙,张泽华.刘易斯“拐点”与我国初次分配格局——劳动力供给曲线对劳动报酬份额的影响[J].经济问题,2014,45(11):1—10.
[2]聂辉华,邹肇芸.中国应从“人口红利”转向“制度红利”[J].国际经济评论,2012,32(6):124—135.
[3]杨友才.制度变迁、路径依赖与经济增长的模型与实证分析——兼论中国制度红利[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,53(4):141—150.
[4]吴雪,周晓唯.人口红利、制度红利与中国经济增长[J].经济体制改革,2017,51(3):11—16.
[5]王伟同.中国人口红利的经济增长“尾效”研究——兼论刘易斯拐点后的中国经济[J].财贸经济,2012,30(11):14—20.
[6]任保平,郭晗.经济发展方式转变的创新驱动机制[J].学术研究,2013,29(2):69—75.
[7]杨瑞龙,张泽华.刘易斯“拐点”与我国初次分配格局——劳动力供给曲线对劳动报酬份额的影响[J].经济问题,2014,45(11):1—10.