人口老龄化、生育率与人力资本投资——基于世代交叠模型及中国省级面板数据的经验分析
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摘要
目前人口老龄化和生育率波动导致人口年龄结构的变化进而对人力资本投资产生影响。基于生命周期理论,围绕人口老龄化、生育率变动与人力资本投资之间的关系,构建三期世代交叠模型,从理论层面分析了人口老龄化如何影响中国家庭的储蓄、消费、健康和教育人力资本投资决策,并选取1997~2016年我国30个省(市、自治区)面板数据进行实证分析和计量检验。经验研究发现:(1)生育率的下降会使家庭增加对孩子的教育和健康人力资本投资;(2)人口老龄化的加速并不会降低家庭对孩子的教育和健康人力资本投资。针对我国"老龄化"和"少子化"并存的人口结构,我国应该从健康和教育两个方面提升人力资本投资。
At present,the changes of population age structure caused by population aging and the fluctuation of fertility rate have an impact on human capital investment. Based on the life-cycle theory,this paper constructs a three-generation overlapping model based on the relationship between population aging,changes in fertility rate and human capital investment. It analyzes how the population aging affects the Chinese family's saving,consumption,Health and education human capital investment decision-making,and selected from 1997 to 2015 in 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)panel data for empirical analysis and measurement tests. Empirical studies have found that:(1)Declining fertility will increase family education and health human capital investment in children;(2)Accelerating population aging will not reduce family education and healthy human capital investment in children. Aiming at the coexistence of population structure of"aging"and"declining birthrate"in our country,our country should improve human capital investment from two aspects of health and education.
At present,the changes of population age structure caused by population aging and the fluctuation of fertility rate have an impact on human capital investment. Based on the life-cycle theory,this paper constructs a three-generation overlapping model based on the relationship between population aging,changes in fertility rate and human capital investment. It analyzes how the population aging affects the Chinese family's saving,consumption,Health and education human capital investment decision-making,and selected from 1997 to 2015 in 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)panel data for empirical analysis and measurement tests. Empirical studies have found that:(1)Declining fertility will increase family education and health human capital investment in children;(2)Accelerating population aging will not reduce family education and healthy human capital investment in children. Aiming at the coexistence of population structure of"aging"and"declining birthrate"in our country,our country should improve human capital investment from two aspects of health and education.
引文
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[30]陈卫民,施美程.人口老龄化促进服务业发展的需求效应[J].人口研究,2014,38(5):3-16.
[31]胡翠,许召元.人口老龄化对储蓄率影响的实证研究——来自中国家庭的数据[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):1345-1364.
[32]周长洪.经济社会发展与生育率变动关系的量化分析[J].人口研究,2015,39(2):40-47.
[33]王弟海,龚六堂,李宏毅.健康人力资本、健康投资和经济增长——以中国跨省数据为例[J].管理世界,2008(3):27-39.
[34]袁培.人力资本投资状况与居民收入增长的实证分析——以新疆为例[J].上海经济研究,2009(2):80-86.
[35]李力行,吴晓瑜.健康、教育和经济增长:理论及跨国证据[J].南开经济研究,2011(1):102-119.
[2]王桂新.生育率下降与计划生育政策的作用——对我国实行计划生育政策的认识与思考[J].南京社会科学,2012(10):66-70.
[3]Choi K.H.,Shin S.Population Aging,Economic Growth,and The Social Transmission of Human Capital:An Analysis with An Overlapping Generations Model[J].Economic Modelling,2015,50(2):138-147.
[4]Ehrlich I.,Lui F.T.Intergenerational Trade,Longevity,and Economic Growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(5):1029-1059.
[5]Sachs J.D.Tropical Underdevelopment[J].Cid Working Papers,2001,18(4):153-154.
[6]Cipriani G.P.Population Aging and PAYG Pensions in The OLG Model[J].Journal of Population Economics,2014,27(1):251-256.
[7]Ferguson T.S.Recognising Homelessness in Public Space:Intolerance and Invisibility[J].Parity,2011,24(10).
[8]李建新.论生育政策与中国人口老龄化[J].人口研究,2000,24(2):9-15.
[9]蒋英红.“银色浪潮”下我国人口政策与经济社会的发展[J].桂海论丛,2007,23(6):91-93.
[10]郭志刚.清醒认识中国低生育率风险[J].国际经济评论,2015(2):100-119.
[11]李建民.生育率下降与经济发展内生性要素的形成——兼论中国人力资本投资供给的制度性短缺[J].人口研究,1999,23(2):10-17.
[12]杨斌.人口转型的经济学解释[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011,V2(2):24-32.
[13]刘浩,陈世金.不同生育率条件下教育与健康的人力资本权衡[J].经济统计学(季刊),2015(2).
[14]尤丹珍.期望孩子数的影响因素分析及对贝克尔生育率经济模型的检验——来自四川省宣汉县的个案研究[J].南方人口,2000(2):20-23+16.
[15]Kalemli-Ozcan S.A Stochastic Model of Mortality,Fertility,and Human Capital Investment[J].Journal of Development Economics,2003,70(1):103-118.
[16]周绍东.生育率与人力资本投资的逆向关系——中国城乡差距的一个解释[J].山西财经大学学报,2008,30(4):15-20.
[17]吕蔚起.城乡生育率差别与子女人力资本投资的关系分析[J].经营管理者,2013(31):133-134.
[18]Zhang D,Lee W S.Question Classification Using Support Vector Machines[C]//Proc.International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval,Toronto,Canada.2003:26-32.
[19]Dhital M R.Introduction to Tethys Himalaya[C]//Geology of the Nepal Himalaya.Springer International Publishing,2015:285-294.
[20]赵喜顺.人口老龄化的影响及发展老年产业分析[J].四川行政学院学报,2004(1):72-75.
[21]王林.中国人口老龄化过程中的人力资本变迁[J].人口与发展,2006,12(5):69-75.
[22]许非.快速人口转变后中国的长期经济增长——从预期寿命、人力资本投资角度考察[D].复旦大学,2008.
[23]刘永平,陆铭.放松计划生育政策将如何影响经济增长——基于家庭养老视角的理论分析[J].经济学(季刊),2008,7(4):1271-1300.
[24]王云多.人口老龄化对劳动供给、人力资本与产出影响预测[J].人口与经济,2014(3):69-75.
[25]乌仁格日乐.人口老龄化对经济增长的积极效应——基于人力资本投资视角[J].山东社会科学,2017(4):90-95.
[26]Anderson G.F.,Hurst J.,Hussey P.S.,et al.Health Spending and Outcomes:Trends in OECD Countries,1960~1998[J].Health Affairs,2000,19(3):150.
[27]Mcgarry K.,Schoeni R.Transfer Behavior Within the Family[J].1995.
[28]Finch J.,Mason J.Passing on:Kinship and Inheritance in England[M].Routledge,2000.
[29]汪伟.人口老龄化、生育政策调整与中国经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2017(1):67-96.
[30]陈卫民,施美程.人口老龄化促进服务业发展的需求效应[J].人口研究,2014,38(5):3-16.
[31]胡翠,许召元.人口老龄化对储蓄率影响的实证研究——来自中国家庭的数据[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):1345-1364.
[32]周长洪.经济社会发展与生育率变动关系的量化分析[J].人口研究,2015,39(2):40-47.
[33]王弟海,龚六堂,李宏毅.健康人力资本、健康投资和经济增长——以中国跨省数据为例[J].管理世界,2008(3):27-39.
[34]袁培.人力资本投资状况与居民收入增长的实证分析——以新疆为例[J].上海经济研究,2009(2):80-86.
[35]李力行,吴晓瑜.健康、教育和经济增长:理论及跨国证据[J].南开经济研究,2011(1):102-119.