改进的CLDAS降水驱动对中国区域积雪模拟的影响评估
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摘要
积雪因为其特定的属性在气候变化和水文循环中扮演着重要角色,在大气和陆面之间起到了调节能量和水交换的显著作用,而陆面驱动数据的质量直接决定着模式对积雪的模拟效果。本文采用CLDAS(CMA Land Data Assimilation System)和改进后的降水驱动(CLDAS-Prcp)分别驱动Noah3.6陆面模式对积雪变量进行模拟,并对中国主要的积雪区东北区域、新疆区域、青藏高原区域的积雪覆盖率、雪深、雪水当量的模拟效果进行了评估。结果表明,CLDAS-Prcp改善了原有驱动在冬季由于低估降水所造成的模拟积雪量偏少的情况;东北区域模拟结果与观测的时间变率最为一致,积雪覆盖率、雪深、雪水当量的相关系数分别为0.42,0.78,0.93;而雪水当量的改进效果最明显,均方根误差和偏差分别减小了54.8%和83.1%,相关系数提高了0.47;同时,CLDAS-Prcp不仅能反映积雪变量的年际变率,而且能够较准确地反映出强度较大的突发降雪事件。
Snow cover plays a significant role in climate change and hydrological cycle due to its specific properties, regulating energy and water exchange for atmosphere and land surface. The quality of the forcing data has a great influence on the result of model simulation. This paper adopts CLDAS and CLDASPrcp data driving on Noah 3. 6 land surface model to simulate snow variables, and assesses snow cover fraction(SCF), snow depth(SD), the snow water equivalent(SWE) in major snow areas, such as Northeast China, Xinjiang and Tibetan Plateau Region. The result shows that CLDAS-Prcp can improve snow simulation in the winter, removes poor snow simulation due to underestimating precipitation of CLDAS.Model result of Northeast China is the most consistent with observations, CORR of SCF, SD and SWE are0. 42, 0. 78 and 0. 93 respectively. The improvement of snow water equivalent is most obvious, RMSE and BIAS are reduced by 54. 8% and 83. 1% respectively, while CORR is increased by 0. 47. Thus, CLDASPrcp not only has better simulation capability but also reflects the extreme snow enevnts.
Snow cover plays a significant role in climate change and hydrological cycle due to its specific properties, regulating energy and water exchange for atmosphere and land surface. The quality of the forcing data has a great influence on the result of model simulation. This paper adopts CLDAS and CLDASPrcp data driving on Noah 3. 6 land surface model to simulate snow variables, and assesses snow cover fraction(SCF), snow depth(SD), the snow water equivalent(SWE) in major snow areas, such as Northeast China, Xinjiang and Tibetan Plateau Region. The result shows that CLDAS-Prcp can improve snow simulation in the winter, removes poor snow simulation due to underestimating precipitation of CLDAS.Model result of Northeast China is the most consistent with observations, CORR of SCF, SD and SWE are0. 42, 0. 78 and 0. 93 respectively. The improvement of snow water equivalent is most obvious, RMSE and BIAS are reduced by 54. 8% and 83. 1% respectively, while CORR is increased by 0. 47. Thus, CLDASPrcp not only has better simulation capability but also reflects the extreme snow enevnts.
引文
陈海山,孙照渤,2004.积雪季节变化特征的数值模拟及其敏感性试验[J].气象学报,62(3):269-284.
陈海山,孙照渤,朱伟军,2003.欧亚积雪异常分布对冬季大气环流的影响Ⅱ.数值模拟[J].大气科学,27(5):847-860.
除多,杨勇,罗布坚参,等,2016.MERRA再分析地面气温产品在青藏高原的适用性分析[J].高原气象,35(2):337-350.
丁一汇,2010.第九讲东亚季风与冷涌[M]//高等天气学系列讲座单元三:热带大气环流和天气系统.北京:气象出版社.
胡增运,倪勇勇,邵华,等,2013.CFSR、ERA-Interim和MERRA降水资料在中亚地区的适用性[J].干旱区地理,36(4):700-708.
李弘毅,王建,2013.积雪水文模拟中的关键问题及其研究进展[J].冰川冻土,35(2):430-437.
李洛晞,沈润平,李鑫慧,等,2016.基于MODIS时间序列森林扰动监测指数比较研究[J].遥感技术与应用,31(6):1083-1090.
李培基,米德生,1983.中国积雪的分布[J].冰川冻土,5(4):9-18.
李伟平,刘新,聂肃平,等,2009.气候模式中积雪覆盖率参数化方案的对比研究[J].地球科学进展,24(5):512-522.
李震坤,武炳义,朱伟军,2009.春季欧亚积雪异常影响中国夏季降水的数值试验[J].气候变化研究进展,5(4):196-201.
潘旸,沈艳,宇婧婧,等,2012.基于最优插值方法分析的中国区域地面观测与卫星反演逐时降水融合试验[J].气象学报,70(6):1381-1389.
秦艳慧,吴通华,李韧,等,2015.ERA-Interim地表温度资料在青藏高原多年冻土区的适用性[J].高原气象,34(3):666-675.
沈永平,王国亚,魏文寿,等,2009.冰雪灾害[M].北京:气象出版社:49-50.
孙菽芬,李敬阳,2002.用于气候研究的雪盖模型参数化方案敏感性研究[J].大气科学,26(4):558-576.
田静,苏红波,孙晓敏,2011.GDAS数据和NOAH陆面模式在中国应用的精度检验[J].地理科学进展,30(11):1422-1430.
肖林,车涛,2015.青藏高原积雪对气候反馈的初步研究[J].遥感技术与应用,30(6):1066-1075.
许立言,武炳义,2012a.欧亚大陆积雪两种物理效应对2010年春末夏初华南降水的影响[J].大气科学,36(2):271-282.
许立言,武炳义,2012b.欧亚大陆积雪与2010年中国春末夏初降水的关系[J].高原气象,31(3):706-714.
杨凯,胡田田,王澄海,2017.青藏高原南、北积雪异常与中国东部夏季降水关系的数值试验研究[J].大气科学,41(2):345-356.
张果,薛海乐,徐晶,等,2016.东亚区域陆面过程方案NOAH和NOAH-MP的比较评估[J].气象,42(9):1058-1068.
张人禾,张若楠,左志燕,2016.中国冬季积雪特征及欧亚大陆积雪对中国气候影响[J].应用气象学报,27(5):513-526.
张若楠,张人禾,左志燕,2015.中国冬季积雪变异及其与北极涛动的联系[J].大气科学,39(3):634-642.
张学通,黄晓东,梁天刚,等,2008.新疆北部地区MODIS积雪遥感数据MOD10A1的精度分析[J].草业学报,17(2):110-117.
仲桂新,宋开山,王宗明,等,2010.东北地区MODIS和AMSR-E积雪产品验证及对比[J].冰川冻土,32(6):1262-1269.
朱国富,2015a.理解大气资料同化的根本概念[J].气象,41(4):456-463.
朱国富,2015b.数值天气预报中分析同化基本方法的历史发展脉络和评述[J].气象,41(8):986-996.
朱玉祥,丁一汇,2007.青藏高原积雪对气候影响的研究进展和问题[J].气象科技,35(1):1-8.
左志燕,张人禾,2012.中国春季降水异常及其与热带太平洋海面温度和欧亚大陆积雪的联系[J].大气科学,36(1):185-194.
Ben L,Xia Youlong,Mitchell K E,et al,2010.Noah LSM snow model diagnostics and enhancements[J].J Hydrometeorol,11(3):721-738.
Dai Yongjiu,Zeng Xubin,Dickinson R E,et al,2003.The common land model[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,84(8):1013-1024.
Hall D K,Riggs G A,2007.Accuracy assessment of the MODIS snow products[J].Earth Sci,21(12):1534-1547.
Hall D K,Riggs G A,Foster J L,et al,2010.Development and evaluation of a cloud-gap-filled MODIS daily snow-cover product[J].Remote Sens Environ,114(3):496-503.
Hall D K,Riggs G A,Salomonson V V,et al,2002.MODIS snowcover products[J].Remote Sens Environ,83(1/2):181-194.
Jordan R,1991.A one-dimensional temperature model for a snow cover[R].Technical Documentation for SNTHERM.89.Special Report 91-16.Hanover:USA Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory:49.
Korer.V.Schaake J,Mitchell K,et al,1999 A parameterization of snowpack and frozen ground intended for NCEP weather and climate models[J].J Geophys Res,104(D16):19569-19585.
Li Dongliang,Wang Chunxue,2011.Research progress of snow cover and its influence on China climate[J].Trans Atmos Sci,34(5):627-636.
Niu Guoyue,Yang Zongliang,Mitchell K E,et al,2011.The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options(Noah-MP):1.Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements[J].J Geophys Res,116(D12):D12109.DOI:10.1029/2010JD015139.
Simic A,Fernandes R,Brown R,et al,2003.Validation of VEGETATION,MODIS,and GOES+SSM/Isnow-cover products over Canada based on surface snow depth observations[J].Hydrol Process,18(6):1089-1104.
Su Hua,Yang Zongliang,Dickinson R E,et al,2010.Multisensor snow data assimilation at the continental scale:the value of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage information[J].J Geophys Res,115(D10):D10104.
Sun Shufen,Jin Jiming,Xue Yongkang,1999.A simple snow-atmosphere-soil transfer model[J].J Geophys Res,104(D16):19587-19597.
Wang Xianwei,Xie Hongjie,Liang Tiangang,2008.Evaluation of modis snow cover and cloud mask and its application in northern Xinjiang,china[J].Remote Sens Environ,112(4):1497-1513.
Wei Zhigang,Dong Wenjie,2015.Assessment of simulations of snow depth in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau using cmip5 multi-models[J].Arct,Antarct,Alp Res,47(4):611-625.
Wu Tongwen,Wu Guoxiong,2004.An empirical formula to compute snow cover fraction in GCMs[J].Adv Atmos Sci,21(4):529-535.
Xie Zhipeng,Hu Zeyong,2016.Comparison of the snow simulations in community land model using two snow cover fraction parameterizations[C].Vienna:EGU General Assembly.
Xie Zhipeng,Hu Zeyong,Xie Zhenghui,et al,2018.Impact of the snow cover scheme on snow distribution and energy budget modeling over the Tibetan plateau[J].Theor Appl Climatol,131(3-4):951-965.
Yang Zongliang,Dickinson R E,Robock A,et al,1997.Validation of the snow submodel of the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme with Russian snow cover and meteorological observational data[J].J Climate,10(2):353-373.
Yi Yonghong,Kimball J S,Jones L A,et al,2011.Evaluation of MERRA land surface estimates in preparation for the soil moisture active passive mission[J].J Climate,24(15):3797-3816.
Yuan Wenping,Xu Wenfang,Ma Minna,et al,2016.Improved snow cover model in terrestrial ecosystem models over the QinghaiTibetan plateau[J].Agric For Meteor,218-219:161-170.
Zhang Yongfei,2015.Multivariate land snow data assimilation in the Northern Hemisphere:development,evaluation and uncertainty quantification of the extensible data assimilation system[D].Austin:The University of Texas at Austin:1-5.
陈海山,孙照渤,朱伟军,2003.欧亚积雪异常分布对冬季大气环流的影响Ⅱ.数值模拟[J].大气科学,27(5):847-860.
除多,杨勇,罗布坚参,等,2016.MERRA再分析地面气温产品在青藏高原的适用性分析[J].高原气象,35(2):337-350.
丁一汇,2010.第九讲东亚季风与冷涌[M]//高等天气学系列讲座单元三:热带大气环流和天气系统.北京:气象出版社.
胡增运,倪勇勇,邵华,等,2013.CFSR、ERA-Interim和MERRA降水资料在中亚地区的适用性[J].干旱区地理,36(4):700-708.
李弘毅,王建,2013.积雪水文模拟中的关键问题及其研究进展[J].冰川冻土,35(2):430-437.
李洛晞,沈润平,李鑫慧,等,2016.基于MODIS时间序列森林扰动监测指数比较研究[J].遥感技术与应用,31(6):1083-1090.
李培基,米德生,1983.中国积雪的分布[J].冰川冻土,5(4):9-18.
李伟平,刘新,聂肃平,等,2009.气候模式中积雪覆盖率参数化方案的对比研究[J].地球科学进展,24(5):512-522.
李震坤,武炳义,朱伟军,2009.春季欧亚积雪异常影响中国夏季降水的数值试验[J].气候变化研究进展,5(4):196-201.
潘旸,沈艳,宇婧婧,等,2012.基于最优插值方法分析的中国区域地面观测与卫星反演逐时降水融合试验[J].气象学报,70(6):1381-1389.
秦艳慧,吴通华,李韧,等,2015.ERA-Interim地表温度资料在青藏高原多年冻土区的适用性[J].高原气象,34(3):666-675.
沈永平,王国亚,魏文寿,等,2009.冰雪灾害[M].北京:气象出版社:49-50.
孙菽芬,李敬阳,2002.用于气候研究的雪盖模型参数化方案敏感性研究[J].大气科学,26(4):558-576.
田静,苏红波,孙晓敏,2011.GDAS数据和NOAH陆面模式在中国应用的精度检验[J].地理科学进展,30(11):1422-1430.
肖林,车涛,2015.青藏高原积雪对气候反馈的初步研究[J].遥感技术与应用,30(6):1066-1075.
许立言,武炳义,2012a.欧亚大陆积雪两种物理效应对2010年春末夏初华南降水的影响[J].大气科学,36(2):271-282.
许立言,武炳义,2012b.欧亚大陆积雪与2010年中国春末夏初降水的关系[J].高原气象,31(3):706-714.
杨凯,胡田田,王澄海,2017.青藏高原南、北积雪异常与中国东部夏季降水关系的数值试验研究[J].大气科学,41(2):345-356.
张果,薛海乐,徐晶,等,2016.东亚区域陆面过程方案NOAH和NOAH-MP的比较评估[J].气象,42(9):1058-1068.
张人禾,张若楠,左志燕,2016.中国冬季积雪特征及欧亚大陆积雪对中国气候影响[J].应用气象学报,27(5):513-526.
张若楠,张人禾,左志燕,2015.中国冬季积雪变异及其与北极涛动的联系[J].大气科学,39(3):634-642.
张学通,黄晓东,梁天刚,等,2008.新疆北部地区MODIS积雪遥感数据MOD10A1的精度分析[J].草业学报,17(2):110-117.
仲桂新,宋开山,王宗明,等,2010.东北地区MODIS和AMSR-E积雪产品验证及对比[J].冰川冻土,32(6):1262-1269.
朱国富,2015a.理解大气资料同化的根本概念[J].气象,41(4):456-463.
朱国富,2015b.数值天气预报中分析同化基本方法的历史发展脉络和评述[J].气象,41(8):986-996.
朱玉祥,丁一汇,2007.青藏高原积雪对气候影响的研究进展和问题[J].气象科技,35(1):1-8.
左志燕,张人禾,2012.中国春季降水异常及其与热带太平洋海面温度和欧亚大陆积雪的联系[J].大气科学,36(1):185-194.
Ben L,Xia Youlong,Mitchell K E,et al,2010.Noah LSM snow model diagnostics and enhancements[J].J Hydrometeorol,11(3):721-738.
Dai Yongjiu,Zeng Xubin,Dickinson R E,et al,2003.The common land model[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,84(8):1013-1024.
Hall D K,Riggs G A,2007.Accuracy assessment of the MODIS snow products[J].Earth Sci,21(12):1534-1547.
Hall D K,Riggs G A,Foster J L,et al,2010.Development and evaluation of a cloud-gap-filled MODIS daily snow-cover product[J].Remote Sens Environ,114(3):496-503.
Hall D K,Riggs G A,Salomonson V V,et al,2002.MODIS snowcover products[J].Remote Sens Environ,83(1/2):181-194.
Jordan R,1991.A one-dimensional temperature model for a snow cover[R].Technical Documentation for SNTHERM.89.Special Report 91-16.Hanover:USA Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory:49.
Korer.V.Schaake J,Mitchell K,et al,1999 A parameterization of snowpack and frozen ground intended for NCEP weather and climate models[J].J Geophys Res,104(D16):19569-19585.
Li Dongliang,Wang Chunxue,2011.Research progress of snow cover and its influence on China climate[J].Trans Atmos Sci,34(5):627-636.
Niu Guoyue,Yang Zongliang,Mitchell K E,et al,2011.The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options(Noah-MP):1.Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements[J].J Geophys Res,116(D12):D12109.DOI:10.1029/2010JD015139.
Simic A,Fernandes R,Brown R,et al,2003.Validation of VEGETATION,MODIS,and GOES+SSM/Isnow-cover products over Canada based on surface snow depth observations[J].Hydrol Process,18(6):1089-1104.
Su Hua,Yang Zongliang,Dickinson R E,et al,2010.Multisensor snow data assimilation at the continental scale:the value of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage information[J].J Geophys Res,115(D10):D10104.
Sun Shufen,Jin Jiming,Xue Yongkang,1999.A simple snow-atmosphere-soil transfer model[J].J Geophys Res,104(D16):19587-19597.
Wang Xianwei,Xie Hongjie,Liang Tiangang,2008.Evaluation of modis snow cover and cloud mask and its application in northern Xinjiang,china[J].Remote Sens Environ,112(4):1497-1513.
Wei Zhigang,Dong Wenjie,2015.Assessment of simulations of snow depth in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau using cmip5 multi-models[J].Arct,Antarct,Alp Res,47(4):611-625.
Wu Tongwen,Wu Guoxiong,2004.An empirical formula to compute snow cover fraction in GCMs[J].Adv Atmos Sci,21(4):529-535.
Xie Zhipeng,Hu Zeyong,2016.Comparison of the snow simulations in community land model using two snow cover fraction parameterizations[C].Vienna:EGU General Assembly.
Xie Zhipeng,Hu Zeyong,Xie Zhenghui,et al,2018.Impact of the snow cover scheme on snow distribution and energy budget modeling over the Tibetan plateau[J].Theor Appl Climatol,131(3-4):951-965.
Yang Zongliang,Dickinson R E,Robock A,et al,1997.Validation of the snow submodel of the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme with Russian snow cover and meteorological observational data[J].J Climate,10(2):353-373.
Yi Yonghong,Kimball J S,Jones L A,et al,2011.Evaluation of MERRA land surface estimates in preparation for the soil moisture active passive mission[J].J Climate,24(15):3797-3816.
Yuan Wenping,Xu Wenfang,Ma Minna,et al,2016.Improved snow cover model in terrestrial ecosystem models over the QinghaiTibetan plateau[J].Agric For Meteor,218-219:161-170.
Zhang Yongfei,2015.Multivariate land snow data assimilation in the Northern Hemisphere:development,evaluation and uncertainty quantification of the extensible data assimilation system[D].Austin:The University of Texas at Austin:1-5.