基于曲线拟合模型的总和生育率与出生率关系研究
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摘要
利用国家统计局人口统计年鉴及中国人口和就业统计年鉴抽样调查和普查数据,在假设总和生育率与出生率具有确定性函数关系的基础上,利用总和生育率与出生率之间的函数关系假设,推导求出两者之间的关系系数K值计算公式,对统计数据缺失年份的K值,利用已知相邻年份的K值,通过移动平均算法求出,并通过已知年份的K值与移动平均算法估算出的K值的分析,进一步验证了移动平均算法估算缺失年份K值的合理性,然后通过曲线拟合方法绘制K值时间序列趋势曲线图,通过数据分析和拟合曲线趋势分析,验证了假设的合理性和可行性。对研究存在的缺陷进行了讨论,对今后深入研究的方向作了阐述。
According to the National Bureau of statistics population statistical yearbook and Chinese population and employment statistics yearbook sampling survey and census data,based on the assumption of the deterministic function relationship between the total fertility rate and the birth rate,the formula for calculating the coefficient K between the two is derived. The K value of the missing years of statistical data is calculated by moving average algorithm,through the known adjacent years K value. Through analyzing the K value of known years and the K value estimated by moving average algorithm to further Verify the rationality of the moving average algorithm to estimate the missing year K value,and then drawing the trend diagram of K value time series by curve fitting method,and through data analysis and curve trend analysis to verify the rationality and feasibility of hypothesis. The paper also discusses the shortcomings of the research and expounds the future direction of the research.
According to the National Bureau of statistics population statistical yearbook and Chinese population and employment statistics yearbook sampling survey and census data,based on the assumption of the deterministic function relationship between the total fertility rate and the birth rate,the formula for calculating the coefficient K between the two is derived. The K value of the missing years of statistical data is calculated by moving average algorithm,through the known adjacent years K value. Through analyzing the K value of known years and the K value estimated by moving average algorithm to further Verify the rationality of the moving average algorithm to estimate the missing year K value,and then drawing the trend diagram of K value time series by curve fitting method,and through data analysis and curve trend analysis to verify the rationality and feasibility of hypothesis. The paper also discusses the shortcomings of the research and expounds the future direction of the research.
引文
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郭志刚.关于中国1990年代低生育水平的再讨论[J].人口研究,2004,(4):16-24.
Robert D.Retherford,Hassan Eini-Zinab.Multidimensional Life Table Estimation of the Total Fertility Rate and Its Components[J].Demography,2013,50(4):1387-1395.
Leontine Alkema,Adrian E.Raftery,Patrick Gerland.Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries[J].Demography,2011,48(3):815-839.
Motoki Airi,Shinohara Ryoji,Yamagata Zentaro.International investigation into the relationship between social expenditure for family and total fertility rate[J].Nihon Koshusei Zasshi,2016,63(7):345-354.
乔晓春,朱宝生.如何利用(粗)出生率来估计总和生育率?[J].人口与发展,2018,(2):65-70.
乔晓春.PADIS-INT人口预测模型经验算法研究[A].“人口预测与动态监测经验算法与省级应用”研讨会论文[C].北京:2014-10-24.
乔晓春.“单独二孩”生育政策的实施会带来什么?---2013年生育意愿调查数据中的一些发现[J].人口与计划生育,2014,(3):18-22.
乔晓春.“单独二孩”政策下新增人口测算方法及监测系统构建[J].人口与发展,2014,(1):2-12.
佟新.人口社会学[M]北京:北京大学出版社,2000.63.
李永胜.人口统计学[M]成都:西南财经大学出版社,2002.105.
李若建.历次人口普查中低年龄组人口漏报研究[J].中山大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(2):145-152.
陈卫.广义稳定人口模型与中国人口估计[J].人口学刊,2016,(1):5-13.
郭志刚.中国低生育进程的主要特征---2015年1%人口抽样调查结果的启示[J].中国人口科学,2017,(4):2-14.
陈卫.2000年以来中国生育水平估计[J].学海,2014,(1):16-25.
郭志刚.对中国1990年代生育水平的研究与讨论[J].人口研究,2004,(2):10-19.
陈卫,张玲玲.中国近期生育率的再估计[J].人口研究,2015,(3):32-39.
查瑞传.查瑞传文集[M].北京:中国人口出版社,2001.322.
陈卫,杨胜慧.中国2010年总和生育率的再估计[J].人口研究,2014,(6):16-24.
乔晓春.实施“普遍二孩”政策后生育水平会达到多高?---兼与翟振武教授商榷[J].人口与发展,2014;(6):2-15.
郭志刚.关于中国1990年代低生育水平的再讨论[J].人口研究,2004,(4):16-24.