基于双栏模型亳清河区域休闲农地存在价值评估
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摘要
研究目的:评估亳清河区域休闲农地存在价值。研究方法:采用双边界两分式条件价值评估法的双栏模型,以零观察值产生原因区分受访者真实和抗议性经济行为;借助生存模型较精确地得到休闲农地存在价值。研究结果:(1)通过对比参与决策和支付决策的结果,文中所选8个属性变量在两阶段中的作用存在显著差异;(2)由生存模型得出研究区居民的平均支付意愿为134.95元/(人·年),总价值为2.70×10~7元/年。研究结论:通过双栏模型和生存模型能够较精确地得到影响居民支付意愿的主要因素以及休闲农地的存在价值,为政府针对性的提高农户保护休闲农地的积极性供科学依据。
The purpose of this paper is to assess the existence value of recreational farmland. In this paper, 400 questionnaires were designed by using double-bounded condition value method(CVM) and investigated the willingness to pay(WTP) of the Boqing River region's residents. The Double-Hurdle Model is used to explain the economic behavior of interviewees, which distinguishes the form 0 WTP between the real and the protest of the interviewees. With Survival Model, the total of the recreational farmland's existence value in the region is obtained, and a new method is provided for the treatment of 0 values in CVM. The results of the study show that based on the comparison between participation in decision and payment decision results, there were significant differences between the eight attribute variables selected in the two phases and the separate analysis was required. The mean WTP in the study area obtained by the survival analysis model is 134.95 CNY a year per person, and the total existence value is 2.70×107 CNY a year. Through Double-Hurdle Model and Survival Model can more accurately extract the main factors affecting the residents' willingness to pay and the existence of recreational farmland value, providing the scientific basis for government to effectively improve the enthusiasm of farmers towards recreational farmland protecting.
The purpose of this paper is to assess the existence value of recreational farmland. In this paper, 400 questionnaires were designed by using double-bounded condition value method(CVM) and investigated the willingness to pay(WTP) of the Boqing River region's residents. The Double-Hurdle Model is used to explain the economic behavior of interviewees, which distinguishes the form 0 WTP between the real and the protest of the interviewees. With Survival Model, the total of the recreational farmland's existence value in the region is obtained, and a new method is provided for the treatment of 0 values in CVM. The results of the study show that based on the comparison between participation in decision and payment decision results, there were significant differences between the eight attribute variables selected in the two phases and the separate analysis was required. The mean WTP in the study area obtained by the survival analysis model is 134.95 CNY a year per person, and the total existence value is 2.70×107 CNY a year. Through Double-Hurdle Model and Survival Model can more accurately extract the main factors affecting the residents' willingness to pay and the existence of recreational farmland value, providing the scientific basis for government to effectively improve the enthusiasm of farmers towards recreational farmland protecting.
引文
[1]刘彦随.中国新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴[J].地理学报,2018,73(4):637-650.
[2]郭焕成,吕明伟.我国休闲农业发展现状与对策[J].经济地理,2008,28(4):640-645.
[3]王湃,凌雪冰,张安录.CVM评估休闲农地的存在价值--以武汉市和平农庄为例[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(6):66-71.
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[7]杨孟,钱新.病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估--以水库的游憩价值为例[J].中国环境科学,2011,31(9):1563-1570.
[8]李伟,孙宝娣,崔丽娟,等.基于双分界二分式的莫莫格湿地生物多样性维持价值评价[J].生态科学,2017,36(1):48-54.
[9]张志强,徐中民,龙爱华,等.黑河流域张掖市生态系统服务恢复价值评估研究--连续型和离散型条件价值评估方法的比较应用[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(2):230-239.
[10]范紫娟,敖长林,毛碧琦,等.基于陈述性偏好法的三江平原湿地生态保护价值比较[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(2):500-508.
[11]赵军,杨凯,刘兰岚,等.环境与生态系统服务价值的WTA/WTP不对称[J].环境科学学报,2007,27(5):854-860.
[12]王显金,钟昌标.基于CVM的海涂湿地生态服务价值的模糊评估模型[J].生态学报,2018,38(8):2974-2983.
[13]宋敏,横川洋,胡柏.用假设市场评价法(CVM)评价农地的外部效益[J].中国土地科学,2000,14(3):19-22.
[14]蔡银莺,陈莹,任艳胜,等.都市休闲农业中农地的非市场价值估算[J].资源科学,2008,30(2):305-312.
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[16]FREW E J,WHYNES D K,WOLSTENHOLME J L.Eliciting willingness to pay:comparing closed-ended with open-ended and payment scale formats[J].Medical Decision Making,2003,23(2):150-159.
[17]陈红光,王秋丹,李晨洋.支付意愿引导技术:支付卡式、单边界二分式和双边界二分式的比较--以三江平原生态旅游水资源的非使用价值为例[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(9):2709-2715.
[18]BISHOP R C,HEBERLEIN T A.Measuring values of extramarket goods:are indirect measures biased?[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1979,61(5):926-930.
[19]HANEMANN W M.Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discrete responses[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1984,66(3):332-341.
[20]ARROW K.Report of the NOAA panel on contingent valuation[J].Federal Register,1993,58(10):4601-4614.
[21]AMIGUES J P,BOULATOFF C,DESAIGUES B,et al.The benefits and costs of riparian analysis habitat preservation:a willingness to accept/willingness to pay contingent valuation approach[J].Ecological Economics,2002,43(1):17-31.
[22]MITCHELL R C,CARSON R T.Using surveys to value public goods:the continent valuation method[J].Land Economics,1990,66(1):107-109.
[23]TOBIN J.Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables[J].Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1958,26(1):24-36.
[24]CRAGG J.Some statistical models for limited dependent variables with application to the demand for durable goods[J].Econometrica,1971,39(5):829-844.
[25]SAZ-SALAZER S D,RRUSELL-K STER P.A doublehurdle model of urban green areas valuation:dealing with zero responses[J].Landscape&Urban Planning,2008,84(3):241-251.
[26]BEGONA ALVAREZFARIZO.Estimating the benefits of agri-environmental policy:econometric issues in open-ended contingent valuation studies[J].Journal of Environmental Planning&Management,1999,42(1):23-43.
[27]HAMMITT J K,ZHOU Y.The economic value of airpollution-related health risks in China:a contingent valuation study[J].Environmental&Resource Economics,2006,33(3):399-423.
[28]MART NEZ-ESPI EIRA R.A box-cox double-hurdle model of wildlife valuation:the citizen’s perspective[J].Ecological Economics,2006,58(1):192-208.
[29]敖长林,董育宁,焦扬,等.基于双栏模型的三江平原湿地生态保护价值评估[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):929-938.
[30]王静.双边界二分式CVM统计模型研究及应用[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2014:21-22.
[31]BOYLE K J,WELSH M P,BISHOP R C.Validation of empirical measures of welfare change:comment and extension[J].Land Economics,1988,64(1):94-98.
[32]郭强.调查实战指南:抽样调查手册[M].北京:中国时代经济出版社,2004:31-47.
[33]文清,尹宁,吕明,等.云南森林生态功能区农户生态补偿支付意愿(WTP)影响因素及差异性分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(8):1260-1273.
[34]蒋舒扬.基于条件价值评估法对洱海环境价值的评估[D].昆明:云南大学,2015:43-48.
[35]孔德帅,李玉新,靳乐山.都市生态涵养区休闲农业生态的游憩价值--以北京市珍珠泉景区为例[J].城市问题,2016(9):97-103.
[36]郑伟,沈程程,乔明阳,等.长岛自然保护区生态系统维护的条件价值评估[J].生态学报,2014,34(1):82-87.
[37]崔丽娟,张曼胤.扎龙湿地非使用价值评价研究[J].林业科学研究,2006,19(4):491-496.
[38]蒋劭妍,曹牧,汤臣栋,等.基于CVM的崇明东滩湿地非使用价值评价[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2017,41(1):21-27.
[39]敖长林,周领,焦扬,等.初始投标值数量和样本容量对双边界二分式CVM的影响[J].生态学报,2016,36(3):854-862.
[2]郭焕成,吕明伟.我国休闲农业发展现状与对策[J].经济地理,2008,28(4):640-645.
[3]王湃,凌雪冰,张安录.CVM评估休闲农地的存在价值--以武汉市和平农庄为例[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(6):66-71.
[4]CIRIACYWANTRUP S V.Capital returns from soilconservation practices[J].Journal of Farm Economics,1947,29(3):1181-1202.
[5]DAVIS R K.Recreation planning as an economic problem[J].Natural Resources Journal,1963,3(2):239-249.
[6]张志强,徐中民,程国栋.条件价值评估法的发展与应用[J].地球科学进展,2003,18(3):454-463.
[7]杨孟,钱新.病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估--以水库的游憩价值为例[J].中国环境科学,2011,31(9):1563-1570.
[8]李伟,孙宝娣,崔丽娟,等.基于双分界二分式的莫莫格湿地生物多样性维持价值评价[J].生态科学,2017,36(1):48-54.
[9]张志强,徐中民,龙爱华,等.黑河流域张掖市生态系统服务恢复价值评估研究--连续型和离散型条件价值评估方法的比较应用[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(2):230-239.
[10]范紫娟,敖长林,毛碧琦,等.基于陈述性偏好法的三江平原湿地生态保护价值比较[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(2):500-508.
[11]赵军,杨凯,刘兰岚,等.环境与生态系统服务价值的WTA/WTP不对称[J].环境科学学报,2007,27(5):854-860.
[12]王显金,钟昌标.基于CVM的海涂湿地生态服务价值的模糊评估模型[J].生态学报,2018,38(8):2974-2983.
[13]宋敏,横川洋,胡柏.用假设市场评价法(CVM)评价农地的外部效益[J].中国土地科学,2000,14(3):19-22.
[14]蔡银莺,陈莹,任艳胜,等.都市休闲农业中农地的非市场价值估算[J].资源科学,2008,30(2):305-312.
[15]RANDALL A,IVES B,EASTMAN C.Bidding games for vaiuation of aesthetic environmental improvements[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1974,1(2):132-149.
[16]FREW E J,WHYNES D K,WOLSTENHOLME J L.Eliciting willingness to pay:comparing closed-ended with open-ended and payment scale formats[J].Medical Decision Making,2003,23(2):150-159.
[17]陈红光,王秋丹,李晨洋.支付意愿引导技术:支付卡式、单边界二分式和双边界二分式的比较--以三江平原生态旅游水资源的非使用价值为例[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(9):2709-2715.
[18]BISHOP R C,HEBERLEIN T A.Measuring values of extramarket goods:are indirect measures biased?[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1979,61(5):926-930.
[19]HANEMANN W M.Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discrete responses[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1984,66(3):332-341.
[20]ARROW K.Report of the NOAA panel on contingent valuation[J].Federal Register,1993,58(10):4601-4614.
[21]AMIGUES J P,BOULATOFF C,DESAIGUES B,et al.The benefits and costs of riparian analysis habitat preservation:a willingness to accept/willingness to pay contingent valuation approach[J].Ecological Economics,2002,43(1):17-31.
[22]MITCHELL R C,CARSON R T.Using surveys to value public goods:the continent valuation method[J].Land Economics,1990,66(1):107-109.
[23]TOBIN J.Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables[J].Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1958,26(1):24-36.
[24]CRAGG J.Some statistical models for limited dependent variables with application to the demand for durable goods[J].Econometrica,1971,39(5):829-844.
[25]SAZ-SALAZER S D,RRUSELL-K STER P.A doublehurdle model of urban green areas valuation:dealing with zero responses[J].Landscape&Urban Planning,2008,84(3):241-251.
[26]BEGONA ALVAREZFARIZO.Estimating the benefits of agri-environmental policy:econometric issues in open-ended contingent valuation studies[J].Journal of Environmental Planning&Management,1999,42(1):23-43.
[27]HAMMITT J K,ZHOU Y.The economic value of airpollution-related health risks in China:a contingent valuation study[J].Environmental&Resource Economics,2006,33(3):399-423.
[28]MART NEZ-ESPI EIRA R.A box-cox double-hurdle model of wildlife valuation:the citizen’s perspective[J].Ecological Economics,2006,58(1):192-208.
[29]敖长林,董育宁,焦扬,等.基于双栏模型的三江平原湿地生态保护价值评估[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):929-938.
[30]王静.双边界二分式CVM统计模型研究及应用[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2014:21-22.
[31]BOYLE K J,WELSH M P,BISHOP R C.Validation of empirical measures of welfare change:comment and extension[J].Land Economics,1988,64(1):94-98.
[32]郭强.调查实战指南:抽样调查手册[M].北京:中国时代经济出版社,2004:31-47.
[33]文清,尹宁,吕明,等.云南森林生态功能区农户生态补偿支付意愿(WTP)影响因素及差异性分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(8):1260-1273.
[34]蒋舒扬.基于条件价值评估法对洱海环境价值的评估[D].昆明:云南大学,2015:43-48.
[35]孔德帅,李玉新,靳乐山.都市生态涵养区休闲农业生态的游憩价值--以北京市珍珠泉景区为例[J].城市问题,2016(9):97-103.
[36]郑伟,沈程程,乔明阳,等.长岛自然保护区生态系统维护的条件价值评估[J].生态学报,2014,34(1):82-87.
[37]崔丽娟,张曼胤.扎龙湿地非使用价值评价研究[J].林业科学研究,2006,19(4):491-496.
[38]蒋劭妍,曹牧,汤臣栋,等.基于CVM的崇明东滩湿地非使用价值评价[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2017,41(1):21-27.
[39]敖长林,周领,焦扬,等.初始投标值数量和样本容量对双边界二分式CVM的影响[J].生态学报,2016,36(3):854-862.