中国第二次人口红利之窗正在开启
|
摘要
人口红利是指将人口优势转变为经济优势,促进经济快速发展的过程。人口红利机会窗口的开启和获得都需要相应的制度保证。改革开放促进中国第一次人口红利机会窗口的开启和收获;随着改革进入攻坚阶段,经济发展转型升级,人口逐渐由量的优势转变为质的优势,基础夯实的第二次人口红利机会窗口已经开启,继续寻求与之相应的社会经济政策有助于最大限度地发挥第二次人口红利优势,促进中国建设现代化经济体系的实现。
The demographic dividend refers to the process of transforming population advantages into economic advantages so as to promote rapid economic development. The opening and acquisition of the demographic dividend opportunity window requires corresponding institutional guarantees. The reform and opening up had promoted the opening and harvesting of China's first demographic opportunity window. As the reform enters the critical stage,the economic development enters the phase of upgrading,and the population advantage from quantity is shifting to that of quality,hence the second demographic dividend window is opening. Continuing to seek corresponding socio-economic policies will help maximize the advantages of the second demographic dividend window and promote the realization of China's modern economic system.
The demographic dividend refers to the process of transforming population advantages into economic advantages so as to promote rapid economic development. The opening and acquisition of the demographic dividend opportunity window requires corresponding institutional guarantees. The reform and opening up had promoted the opening and harvesting of China's first demographic opportunity window. As the reform enters the critical stage,the economic development enters the phase of upgrading,and the population advantage from quantity is shifting to that of quality,hence the second demographic dividend window is opening. Continuing to seek corresponding socio-economic policies will help maximize the advantages of the second demographic dividend window and promote the realization of China's modern economic system.
引文
[1]Bloom. D. E., J. G. Williamson. Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia[J]. World Bank Economic Review,1998,(3).
[2]Mason,A.&Lee,R. Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries:Capturing the second demographic dividend[J]. GENUS,LXII,2006,(2).
[3]Cai Fang,Dewen Wang. China’s Demographic Transition:Implications for Growth,in Garnaut and Song,eds.,The China Boom and Its Discontents[M]. ANU Press,2005.
[4]杨帆.中国人口红利结束了吗?[J].山东社会科学,2017,(4).
[5]王丰.人口红利真的是取之不尽、用之不竭吗?[J].人口研究,2007,(6).
[6]原新,刘厚莲.中国人口红利真的结束了吗?[J].人口与经济,2014,(6).
[7]原新,高瑗,李竞博.人口红利概念及对中国人口红利的再认识——聚焦于人口机会的分析[J].中国人口科学,2017,(6).
[8]聂辉华,邹肇云.中国应从人口红利转向制度红利[J].国际经济评论,2012,(6).
[9]Li Gang,Liang Yongmei,Shen Keting. Assessment of China’s Qualitative Demographic Dividend for Economic Growth during 2016-2020[J],China Economist,2016,(1).
[10]蔡昉等.超越人口红利[M].北京:社科文献出版社,2011.
[11]巩勋洲,尹振涛.人口红利、财富积累与经济增长[J].中国人口科学,2008,(6).
[12]穆光宗.人口红利枯竭会带来劳动力价格提高吗?[N].解放日报,2007-07-02.
[13]穆光宗.中国的人口红利——反思与展望[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2008,(3).
[14]厉以宁.“城归”将成为新的人口红利[J].决策探索,2017,(1).
[15]原新,刘厚莲.中国人口红利真的结束了吗?[J].人口与经济,2014,(6).
[16]李钢等.从数量型到质量型人口红利[M].北京:社科文献出版社,2015.
[17]原新,史佳影.退休年龄调整:为何如此纠结?[J].人口研究,2012,(6).
[18]李平,田朔.出口贸易对技术创新影响的研究:水平溢出与垂直溢出[J].世界经济研究,2010,(2).
[19]中华人民共和国科学技术部:http://www. most.gov. cn.
[2]Mason,A.&Lee,R. Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries:Capturing the second demographic dividend[J]. GENUS,LXII,2006,(2).
[3]Cai Fang,Dewen Wang. China’s Demographic Transition:Implications for Growth,in Garnaut and Song,eds.,The China Boom and Its Discontents[M]. ANU Press,2005.
[4]杨帆.中国人口红利结束了吗?[J].山东社会科学,2017,(4).
[5]王丰.人口红利真的是取之不尽、用之不竭吗?[J].人口研究,2007,(6).
[6]原新,刘厚莲.中国人口红利真的结束了吗?[J].人口与经济,2014,(6).
[7]原新,高瑗,李竞博.人口红利概念及对中国人口红利的再认识——聚焦于人口机会的分析[J].中国人口科学,2017,(6).
[8]聂辉华,邹肇云.中国应从人口红利转向制度红利[J].国际经济评论,2012,(6).
[9]Li Gang,Liang Yongmei,Shen Keting. Assessment of China’s Qualitative Demographic Dividend for Economic Growth during 2016-2020[J],China Economist,2016,(1).
[10]蔡昉等.超越人口红利[M].北京:社科文献出版社,2011.
[11]巩勋洲,尹振涛.人口红利、财富积累与经济增长[J].中国人口科学,2008,(6).
[12]穆光宗.人口红利枯竭会带来劳动力价格提高吗?[N].解放日报,2007-07-02.
[13]穆光宗.中国的人口红利——反思与展望[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2008,(3).
[14]厉以宁.“城归”将成为新的人口红利[J].决策探索,2017,(1).
[15]原新,刘厚莲.中国人口红利真的结束了吗?[J].人口与经济,2014,(6).
[16]李钢等.从数量型到质量型人口红利[M].北京:社科文献出版社,2015.
[17]原新,史佳影.退休年龄调整:为何如此纠结?[J].人口研究,2012,(6).
[18]李平,田朔.出口贸易对技术创新影响的研究:水平溢出与垂直溢出[J].世界经济研究,2010,(2).
[19]中华人民共和国科学技术部:http://www. most.gov. cn.