基于改进等比例分配方法的我国各省二氧化碳减排目标分配
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摘要
随着我国一系列碳排放控制目标的提出,如何将碳强度减排目标公平合理地分配到不同省份成为学术界关注的重要问题。文中基于改进的等比例分配法和熵值赋权法,充分考虑各省份在碳排放驱动因素、减排能力、减排成本、排放水平等方面的差异,对我国2020年碳排放控制目标进行了分配。结果表明,在国家"十三五"期间碳强度下降18%的目标约束下,全国30个省的碳强度平均削减幅度为16. 33%,削减率在10.17%-27. 76%之间。其中,以天津、江苏等为代表的东部沿海地区和以内蒙古、山东、山西等为代表的重工业大省和能源输送大省,碳强度削减率高于全国平均水平,而大多数中西部欠发达省份的削减率则相对较低。在碳强度减排目标约束下,各地区应结合自身的经济社会发展特征选择差异化的低碳经济发展路径。
With a series of carbon emission control targets being put forward in our country,how to allocate carbon intensity emission reduction targets fairly and reasonably to different provinces has become an important issue of academic concern.In this paper,based on the improved equal-proportion distribution method and improved entropy method,taking full account of the differences in emission drivers,abatement capacity,emission reduction costs and emission levels in all provinces,the target of carbon emission control in 2020 is allocated.The results show that under the national target of carbon intensity reduction of 18%,the average reduction of carbon emission intensity in 30 provinces is 16.33% and the reduction rates are between 10.17% and 27.76%.For the eastern coastal areas represented by Tianjin and Jiangsu,as well as the major heavy industry provinces and energy transmission provinces represented by Inner Mongolia,Shandong and Shanxi,the reduction rate of the carbon emission intensity is higher than the national average reduction rate,and for the western provinces,the intensity reduction rate is below this level.Under the goal of carbon intensity emission reduction targets,all provinces should choose a differentiated path of low-carbon economic development,in light of their own economic and social development characteristics.
With a series of carbon emission control targets being put forward in our country,how to allocate carbon intensity emission reduction targets fairly and reasonably to different provinces has become an important issue of academic concern.In this paper,based on the improved equal-proportion distribution method and improved entropy method,taking full account of the differences in emission drivers,abatement capacity,emission reduction costs and emission levels in all provinces,the target of carbon emission control in 2020 is allocated.The results show that under the national target of carbon intensity reduction of 18%,the average reduction of carbon emission intensity in 30 provinces is 16.33% and the reduction rates are between 10.17% and 27.76%.For the eastern coastal areas represented by Tianjin and Jiangsu,as well as the major heavy industry provinces and energy transmission provinces represented by Inner Mongolia,Shandong and Shanxi,the reduction rate of the carbon emission intensity is higher than the national average reduction rate,and for the western provinces,the intensity reduction rate is below this level.Under the goal of carbon intensity emission reduction targets,all provinces should choose a differentiated path of low-carbon economic development,in light of their own economic and social development characteristics.
引文
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[28]张翠菊,张宗益,覃明锋.能源禀赋、技术进步与碳排放强度-基于空间计量模型的研究[J].系统工程,2016,34(11):47-53.
[29]曾贤刚.我国能源效率、CO2减排潜力及影响因素分析[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(10):1432-1440.
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[32]石敏俊,王妍,张卓颖,周新.中国各省区碳足迹与碳排放空间转移[J].地理学报,2012,67(10):1327-1338.
[2]Ding Z L,Duan X N,Ge Q S,et al. On the major proposals for carbon emission reduction and some related issues[J]. Chinese Science:Earth Science,2010,53(2):159-172.
[3]Yu S,Gao X,Ma C,et al. Study on the Concept of Per Capita Cumulative Emissions and Allocation Options[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2011,2(2):79-85.
[4]Janssen M,Rotmans J. Allocation of fossil CO2emission rights quantifying cultural perspectives[J]. Ecological Economics,1995,13(1):65-79.
[5]Phylipsen G,Bode J W,Blok K,et al. A Triptych sectoral approach to burden differentiation:GHG emissions in the European bubble[J]. Energy Policy,1998,26(12):929-943.
[6]Groenenberg H,Phylipsen D,Blok K. Differentiating commitments world wide:global differentiation of GHG emissions reductions based on the Triptych approach—a preliminary assessment[J]. Energy Policy,2001,29(12):1007-1030.
[7]Elzen M G J D,Hof A F,Roelfsema M. The emissions gap between the Copenhagen pledges and the 2°C climate goal:Options for closing and risks that could widen the gap[J]. Global Environmental Change,2011,21(2):733-743.
[8]Kartha S,Baer P,Athanasiou T,et al. The right to development in a climate constrained world:The Greenhouse Development Rights framework[J]. Gastroenterology,2010,191(10):205-226.
[9]李全生,郁璇.我国省级区域的人均碳排放研究[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2013,23(2):103-111.
[10]宋德勇,刘习平.中国省际碳排放空间分配研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(5):7-13.
[11]孙根年,李静,魏艳旭.环境学习曲线与我国碳减排目标的地区分解[J].环境科学研究,2011,24(10):1194-1202.
[12]刘晓.基于公平与发展的中国省区碳排放配额分配研究[J].系统工程,2016,34(2):64-69.
[13]吴静,马晓哲,王铮.我国省市自治区碳排放权配额研究[J].第四纪研究,2010,30(3):481-488.
[14]郑立群.中国各省区碳减排责任分摊-基于零和收益DEA模型的研究[J].资源科学,2012,34(11):2087-2096.
[15]苗壮,周鹏,李向民.我国“十二·五”时期省级碳强度约束指标的效率分配-基于ZSG环境生产技术的研究[J].经济管理,2012,34(9):25-36.
[16]李小胜,宋马林.“十二五”时期中国碳排放额度分配评估-基于效率视角的比较分析[J].中国工业经济,2015(9):99-113.
[17]郭文,刘小峰,吴孝灵.中国“十三五”时期省际碳减排目标的效率分配[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):72-83.
[18]李陶,陈林菊,范英.基于非线性规划的我国省区碳强度减排配额研究[J].管理评论,2010,22(6):54-60.
[19]王金南,蔡博峰,曹东,周颖,刘兰翠.中国CO2排放总量控制区域分解方案研究[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(4):680-685.
[20]程纪华.中国省域碳排放总量控制目标分解研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(1):23-30.
[21]郑立群.中国各省区碳减排责任分摊-基于公平与效率权衡模型的研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(5):1-6.
[22]鲁万波,仇婷婷,杜磊.中国不同经济增长阶段碳排放影响因素研究[J].经济研究,2013,48(4):106-118.
[23]朴胜任,李健.京津冀区域碳减排能力测度与评价[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(5):193-198.
[24]张玲,赵立雨,师萍.基于国际经验的我国R&D投入强度偏低因素解析[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(12):10-13.
[25]Huang J,Liu Q,Cai X,et al. The effect of technological factors on China’s carbon intensity:New evidence from a panel threshold model[J].Energy Policy,2018,115:32-42.
[26]Yang Y,Cai W,Wang C. Industrial CO2,intensity,indigenous innovation and R&D spillovers in China’s provinces[J]. Applied Energy,2014,131(131):117-127.
[27]顾高翔,王铮.技术进步推动下全球经济增长与自主碳减排效果研究[J].科学学研究,2017,35(3):379-386.
[28]张翠菊,张宗益,覃明锋.能源禀赋、技术进步与碳排放强度-基于空间计量模型的研究[J].系统工程,2016,34(11):47-53.
[29]曾贤刚.我国能源效率、CO2减排潜力及影响因素分析[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(10):1432-1440.
[30]钟友明.财政收入与GDP的相关性研究[J].江西财经大学学报,2004(4):19-21.
[31]刘巧玲,王奇.基于区域差异的污染物削减总量分配研究-以COD削减总量的省际分配为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(4):512-517.
[32]石敏俊,王妍,张卓颖,周新.中国各省区碳足迹与碳排放空间转移[J].地理学报,2012,67(10):1327-1338.