新中国成立以来的人口政策与人口转变
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摘要
中国人口政策的形成与变革伴随着人口转变的进程,为社会经济的快速发展创造了有利条件。文章梳理了新中国成立以来的人口政策和人口转变历程。计划生育政策经历了萌芽、批判和停滞的初始阶段;文化大革命之后得以恢复;改革开放后的计划生育政策进一步确立、稳定; 21世纪以后顺应人口形势进行微调和大调整。人口转变主要表现在2个方面:生育水平快速下降,并稳定在低位,生育年龄不断推迟,生育模式已经明显改变;人口预期寿命不断延长,婴儿死亡率、孕产妇死亡率等显著下降,死因模式和死亡模式均向老年型转变,国民健康水平走在发展中国家前列。然而,后人口转变时代考验着中国经济和社会发展体制,需要做好准备。
The establishment and reform of China' s population policy is accompanied by the process of demographic transition,which has created favorable conditions for the rapid development of social economy after the reform and opening up. This paper reviews the population policy and demographic transition since the founding of new China. The family planning policy underwent germination,criticism and stagnation; it was restored after the Cultural Revolution; since the reform and opening up,the family planning policy was further established and stabilized,it was fine-tuned and adjusted to the population situation since 2000. The demographic transition is mainly manifested in two aspects of birth and death.The fertility level has declined rapidly and stabilized at a low level,the reproductive age is delayed continuously,and the reproductive pattern has changed significantly; the life expectancy of the population is prolonged,the infant mortality rate and the maternal mortality rate are significantly reduced,the pattern of death cause and death structure are changing to the old-age type,and the national health has been at the forefront of the developing countries. However,the post-demographic transition era is a test of China's economic and social development system,and we need to be prepared
The establishment and reform of China' s population policy is accompanied by the process of demographic transition,which has created favorable conditions for the rapid development of social economy after the reform and opening up. This paper reviews the population policy and demographic transition since the founding of new China. The family planning policy underwent germination,criticism and stagnation; it was restored after the Cultural Revolution; since the reform and opening up,the family planning policy was further established and stabilized,it was fine-tuned and adjusted to the population situation since 2000. The demographic transition is mainly manifested in two aspects of birth and death.The fertility level has declined rapidly and stabilized at a low level,the reproductive age is delayed continuously,and the reproductive pattern has changed significantly; the life expectancy of the population is prolonged,the infant mortality rate and the maternal mortality rate are significantly reduced,the pattern of death cause and death structure are changing to the old-age type,and the national health has been at the forefront of the developing countries. However,the post-demographic transition era is a test of China's economic and social development system,and we need to be prepared
引文
[1]宋健.中国生育政策的完善与“善后”[J].中国人民大学学报,2015(4):110-117.
[2]中共中央关于控制我国人口增长问题致全体共产党员、共青团员的公开信[EB/OL].(2005-02-04)[2018-11-04].http:∥news.Xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2005-02/04/content_2547034.htm.
[3]陈卫,张玲玲.中国近期生育率的再估计[J].人口研究,2015,39(2):32-39.
[4]陈友华.中国女性初婚、初育年龄变动的基本情况及其分析[J].中国人口科学,1991(5):39-45.
[5]张银锋,侯佳伟.中国人口实际与理想的生育年龄:1994-2012[J].人口与发展,2016,22(2):2-11.
[6]宋健,唐诗萌.1995年以来中国妇女生育模式的特点及变化[J].中国人口科学,2017(4):15-27.
[7]阎瑞,陈胜利.四十年来中国人口年龄别死亡率与寿命研究[J].中国人口科学,1991(2):1-10.
[8]OMRAN A R.The epidemiological transition:a theory of the epidemiology of population change,the milbank quarterly.2005[J].First published,1971,83(4):731-57.
[9]李涌平,韩丽媛.流行病学转变视角下中国死亡水平及死因构成分析:2009-2013[J].人口与发展,2016,22(3):36-42.
[10]王丰,安德鲁·梅森.中国经济转型过程中的人口因素[J].中国人口科学,2006(3):2-18.
[11]蔡昉,王德文.中国经济增长可持续性与劳动贡献[J].经济研究,1999(10):62-68.
[12]MYRSKYLA M,KOHLER H P,BILLARI F C.Advances in development reverse fertility declines[J].Nature,2009,460(7256):741.
[13]穆光宗.对人口安全大势的几点认识[J].北京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2016(4):1-11.
[14]孟洁宁.城市社区居家养老服务研究——基于供给侧结构性改革视角的分析[J].创新科技,2016(7):55-57.
(1)数据来自《新中国60年统计资料汇编》和《2017年中国统计年鉴》
(1)数据来自2016年《中国卫生统计年鉴》,全国3年肿瘤死亡回顾调查的数据计算,1973~1976年婴儿死亡率为47‰。
[2]中共中央关于控制我国人口增长问题致全体共产党员、共青团员的公开信[EB/OL].(2005-02-04)[2018-11-04].http:∥news.Xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2005-02/04/content_2547034.htm.
[3]陈卫,张玲玲.中国近期生育率的再估计[J].人口研究,2015,39(2):32-39.
[4]陈友华.中国女性初婚、初育年龄变动的基本情况及其分析[J].中国人口科学,1991(5):39-45.
[5]张银锋,侯佳伟.中国人口实际与理想的生育年龄:1994-2012[J].人口与发展,2016,22(2):2-11.
[6]宋健,唐诗萌.1995年以来中国妇女生育模式的特点及变化[J].中国人口科学,2017(4):15-27.
[7]阎瑞,陈胜利.四十年来中国人口年龄别死亡率与寿命研究[J].中国人口科学,1991(2):1-10.
[8]OMRAN A R.The epidemiological transition:a theory of the epidemiology of population change,the milbank quarterly.2005[J].First published,1971,83(4):731-57.
[9]李涌平,韩丽媛.流行病学转变视角下中国死亡水平及死因构成分析:2009-2013[J].人口与发展,2016,22(3):36-42.
[10]王丰,安德鲁·梅森.中国经济转型过程中的人口因素[J].中国人口科学,2006(3):2-18.
[11]蔡昉,王德文.中国经济增长可持续性与劳动贡献[J].经济研究,1999(10):62-68.
[12]MYRSKYLA M,KOHLER H P,BILLARI F C.Advances in development reverse fertility declines[J].Nature,2009,460(7256):741.
[13]穆光宗.对人口安全大势的几点认识[J].北京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2016(4):1-11.
[14]孟洁宁.城市社区居家养老服务研究——基于供给侧结构性改革视角的分析[J].创新科技,2016(7):55-57.
(1)数据来自《新中国60年统计资料汇编》和《2017年中国统计年鉴》
(1)数据来自2016年《中国卫生统计年鉴》,全国3年肿瘤死亡回顾调查的数据计算,1973~1976年婴儿死亡率为47‰。