中国区位导向性政策有效吗?——来自开发区的证据
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摘要
中国的开发区是改革开放的前沿窗口和区域发展的引擎,也是服务于国家经济发展战略的重要载体。文章以开发区政策为例,利用2003年开发区清理整顿政策这一准自然实验,使用倾向得分匹配倍差方法(PSM-DID)评估了中国区位导向性政策的有效性和空间异质性。研究发现:(1)短期来看,开发区政策促进地区经济总量缩小差距的作用非常显著,但是长期效应不明显;而对人均意义上的经济增长及其缩小区域差距的作用,在短期和长期均不明显。(2)开发区政策的作用存在地理异质性,推动了中西部地区GDP的相对更快增长,但对人均GDP提升的作用不显著。进一步的分析显示,开发区政策的作用在距离城市群300公里内更加明显,其正向效果随着城市到城市群的距离的增加而减弱。(3)开发区设立有利于提升所在城市的第三产业比重,但对基础设施和和教育状况的改善没有带来显著的促进作用。结果表明,单纯依赖区位导向的空间干预政策无法兼顾总量平衡与人均GDP的均衡发展。因此,中国区域协调发展战略的重点不应是通过分散布局的干预以达到总量意义上的地区平衡,而应把重心放在提升落后地区的基础设施、教育质量和民生方面,并强化城市群和都市圈作为实施区域政策的有力抓手,最终实现基本公共服务的区际均等化。
Xi Jinping's report to the 19 th CPC National Congress expounded the implementation of the regional coordinated development strategy for the first time,which is a significant improvement in China's regional development strategy since the reform and opening up policy. The imbalance of China's regional development reflects the conflicts between people's growing needs for a better life and the imbalanced regional development in terms of the spatial distribution of economic activities,and has always been one of the major difficulties in China's economic and social development. As a typical "place-based" policy,the significance of the development zone has gone beyond the development zone itself and become an important carrier to serve the national economic development strategy. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities from2000—2015,this paper takes the cleaning up and rectifying policy of development zones in 2003 as a quasinatural experiment and adopts the difference-in-differences propensity score matching method to estimate the impact of the "place-based" policy on regional economic development. It comes to the results as follows:the cleaning up and rectifying policy of development zones has significantly reduced regional disparity,but not significantly affected regional disparities at the per capita level. Meanwhile,the cleaning up and rectifying policy of development zones has significantly reduced regional economic growth,which in another way means the setting up of development zones has indeed promoted regional economic growth. Also it has not significantly affected regional disparities at the per capita level. On these grounds,it can be concluded that,under the circumstance of insufficient mobility of production factors,the balance of regional development at the aggregate level has been achieved through the transfer of resources and the regional preferential policies,but the regional balance at the per capita level has not been achieved. The sub-region test shows that the impact is more significant for the central and western areas but not significant for the eastern areas when it comes to the aggregate economic growth,implying that the development of the central and western may be balanced at the expense of losing efficiency in the eastern. Furthermore,cities with development zones which are within 300 km from the urban agglomeration are more advantageous than those beyond 300 km from the urban agglomeration. The heterogeneity test of metropolitan areas shows that the cleaning up and rectifying policy of the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has greater effects on economic growth,while that of the Pearl River Delta has less effects. Therefore,the urban agglomeration and metropolitan area should be strengthened as a key to implement the "place-based" policy. By optimizing the rational layout of development zones,it will help to boost economic growth in less developed areas and narrow the gap of economic development between developed areas and less developed areas. Besides,by improving the basic public service level in the central and western areas,the loss of balance and efficiency can be avoided to some extent,thus realizing regional prosperity.
Xi Jinping's report to the 19 th CPC National Congress expounded the implementation of the regional coordinated development strategy for the first time,which is a significant improvement in China's regional development strategy since the reform and opening up policy. The imbalance of China's regional development reflects the conflicts between people's growing needs for a better life and the imbalanced regional development in terms of the spatial distribution of economic activities,and has always been one of the major difficulties in China's economic and social development. As a typical "place-based" policy,the significance of the development zone has gone beyond the development zone itself and become an important carrier to serve the national economic development strategy. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities from2000—2015,this paper takes the cleaning up and rectifying policy of development zones in 2003 as a quasinatural experiment and adopts the difference-in-differences propensity score matching method to estimate the impact of the "place-based" policy on regional economic development. It comes to the results as follows:the cleaning up and rectifying policy of development zones has significantly reduced regional disparity,but not significantly affected regional disparities at the per capita level. Meanwhile,the cleaning up and rectifying policy of development zones has significantly reduced regional economic growth,which in another way means the setting up of development zones has indeed promoted regional economic growth. Also it has not significantly affected regional disparities at the per capita level. On these grounds,it can be concluded that,under the circumstance of insufficient mobility of production factors,the balance of regional development at the aggregate level has been achieved through the transfer of resources and the regional preferential policies,but the regional balance at the per capita level has not been achieved. The sub-region test shows that the impact is more significant for the central and western areas but not significant for the eastern areas when it comes to the aggregate economic growth,implying that the development of the central and western may be balanced at the expense of losing efficiency in the eastern. Furthermore,cities with development zones which are within 300 km from the urban agglomeration are more advantageous than those beyond 300 km from the urban agglomeration. The heterogeneity test of metropolitan areas shows that the cleaning up and rectifying policy of the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has greater effects on economic growth,while that of the Pearl River Delta has less effects. Therefore,the urban agglomeration and metropolitan area should be strengthened as a key to implement the "place-based" policy. By optimizing the rational layout of development zones,it will help to boost economic growth in less developed areas and narrow the gap of economic development between developed areas and less developed areas. Besides,by improving the basic public service level in the central and western areas,the loss of balance and efficiency can be avoided to some extent,thus realizing regional prosperity.
引文
[1]陈钊,陆铭.在集聚中走向平衡:中国城乡与区域经济协调发展的实证研究[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2009.
[2]邓慧慧.贸易自由化、要素分布和制造业集聚[J].经济研究,2009,(11):118-129.
[3]邓慧慧,赵家羚.地方政府经济决策中的“同群效应”[J].中国工业经济,2018,(4):59-78.
[4]邓睦军,龚勤林.中国区域政策的空间选择逻辑[J].经济学家,2017,(12):58-65.
[5]丁嵩,孙斌栋.区域政策重塑了经济地理吗?--空间中性与空间干预的视角[J].经济社会体制比较,2015,(6):56-67.
[6]范剑勇,张雁.经济地理与地区间工资差异[J].经济研究,2009,(8):73-84.
[7]李力行,申广军.经济开发区、地区比较优势与产业结构调整[J].经济学(季刊),2015,(2):885-910.
[8]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?--基于双重差分方法的验证[J].管理世界,2015,(8):30-38.
[9]刘修岩.空间效率与区域平衡:对中国省级层面集聚效应的检验[J].世界经济,2014,(1):55-80.
[10]陆铭.大国大城--当代中国的统一、发展与平衡[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2016.
[11]陆铭.城市、区域和国家发展--空间政治经济学的现在与未来[J].经济学(季刊),2017a,(4):1499-1532.
[12]陆铭.空间的力量:地理、政治与城市发展[M].2版.上海:格致出版社,2017b.
[13]陆铭,向宽虎.破解效率与平衡的冲突--论中国的区域发展战略[J].经济社会体制比较,2014,(4):1-16.
[14]陆铭,钟辉勇.大国发展:地理的政治经济学分析[J].新政治经济学评论,2015,(28):1-19.
[15]魏后凯.中国国家区域政策的调整与展望[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2008,(10):56-64.
[16]吴敏,黄玖立.省级开发区、主导产业与县域工业发展[J].经济学动态,2017,(1):52-61.
[17]向宽虎.地理与政策[D].上海:复旦大学,2014.
[18]向宽虎,陆铭.发展速度与质量的冲突--为什么开发区政策的区域分散倾向是不可持续的?[J].财经研究,2015,(4):4-17.
[19]徐现祥,陈小飞.经济特区:中国渐进改革开放的起点[J].世界经济文汇,2008,(1):14-26.
[20]徐现祥,王贤彬.晋升激励与经济增长:来自中国省级官员的证据[J].世界经济,2010,(2):15-36.
[21]徐现祥,王贤彬,高元骅.中国区域发展的政治经济学[J].世界经济文汇,2011,(3):26-58.
[22]赵勇,魏后凯.政府干预、城市群空间功能分工与地区差距--兼论中国区域政策的有效性[J].管理世界,2015,(8):14-29.
[23]周茂,陆毅,杜艳,等.开发区设立与地区制造业升级[J].中国工业经济,2018,(3):62-79.
[24]周绍杰,王有强,殷存毅.区域经济协调发展:功能界定与机制分析[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2010,(2):141-148.
[25]周玉龙,孙久文.论区域发展政策的空间属性[J].中国软科学,2016,(2):67-80.
[26]朱希伟,陶永亮.经济集聚与区域协调[J].世界经济文汇,2011,(3):1-25.
[27]Alder S,Shao L,Zilibotti F.The effect of economic reform and industrial policy in a panel of Chinese cities[R].University of Zurich Working Paper No.207,2013.
[28]Barca F,McCann P,Rodríguez-Pose A.The case for regional development intervention:Place-based versus place-neutral approaches[J].Journal of Regional Science,2012,52(1):134-152.
[29]Busso M,Gregory J,Kline P.Assessing the incidence and efficiency of a prominent place based policy[J].The American Economic Review,2013,103(2):897-947.
[30]Cai X Q,Lu Y,Wu M Q,et al.Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment?Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China[J].Journal of Development Economics,2016,123:73-85.
[31]Chen B K,Lu M,Xiang K H.Geography versus policy:Exploring how location matters in placed-based policies using a natural experiment in China[R].Working Paper,2016.
[32]Criscuolo C,Martin R,Overman H G,et al.The causal effects of an industrial policy[R].NBER Working Paper No.17842,2012.
[33]Démurger S,Sachs J D,Woo W T,et al.The relative contributions of location and preferential policies in China's regional development:Being in the right place and having the right incentives[J].China Economic Review,2002,13(4):444-465.
[34]Gill I.Regional development policies:Place-based or people-centred?[R].VoxEU.org.09 October 2010.
[35]Givord P,Rathelot R,Sillard P.Place-based tax exemptions and displacement effects:An evaluation of the Zones Franches Urbaines program[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2013,43(1):151-163.
[36]Hewings G J D.Spatially blind trade and fiscal impact policies and their impact on regional economies[J].The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2014,54(4):590-602.
[37]Liu Y L,Lu M,Xiang K H.Balance through Agglomeration:A race between geography and policy in China’s regional development[J].China&World Economy,2018,26(6):72-96.
[38]Lu Y,Wang J,Zhu L M.Do place-based policies work?Micro-level evidence from China's economic zone program[R].SSRN Working paper NO.2635851,2015.
[39]Mayer T,Mayneris F,Py L.The impact of urban enterprise zones on establishment location decisions and labor maket outcomes:Evidence from France[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2017,17(4):709-752.
[40]Neumark D,Simpson H.Place-based policies[R].NBER Working Paper No.20049,2014.
[41]Neumark D,Kolko J.Do enterprise zones create jobs?Evidence from California’s enterprise zone program[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2010,68(1):1-19.
[42]OECD.Regions matter:Economic recovery,innovation and sustainable growth[M].Paris:Organizations for Economic Growth and Development,2009.
[43]Schminke A,van Biesebroeck J.Using export market performance to evaluate regional preferential policies in China[J].Review of World Economics,2013,149(2):343-367.
[44]Wang J.The economic impact of special economic zones:Evidence from Chinese municipalities[J].Journal of Development Economics,2013,101:133-147.
[45]World Bank.World development report 2009:Reshaping economic geography[M].Washington DC:World Bank,2008.
[46]Zheng S Q,Sun W Z,Wu J F,et al.Urban agglomeration and local economic growth in China:The role of new industrial parks[R].USC-INET Research Paper No.16-06,2016.
[47]Zheng S Q,Sun W Z,Wu J F,et al.The birth of edge cities in China:Measuring the effects of industrial parks policy[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2017,100:80-103.
(1)关于“区域协调发展”概念,最开始是1992-1994年间提出的。真正的文件出台是1996年3月17日,第八届人大四次会议批准的《“九五”计划和2010年远景目标纲要》中首次将地区之间协调发展作为国民经济和社会发展的指导方针之一。
(1)这一系列文件是《国务院办公厅关于清理整顿各类开发区加强建设用地管理的通知》(国办发[2003]70号)、《国务院关于加大工作力度进一步治理整顿土地市场秩序的紧急通知》(国发明电[2003]7号)和《清理整顿现有各类开发区的具体标准和政策界限》《国家发展和改革委员会、国土资源部、建设部、商务部关于清理整顿现有各类开发区的具体标准和政策界限的通知》。
(1)根据我们的统计,发现2003年清理整顿后80%的新增省级开发区以前是省级以下开发区,因此使用这种处理组的反向效果比较接近开发区清理整顿的政策效果。
[2]邓慧慧.贸易自由化、要素分布和制造业集聚[J].经济研究,2009,(11):118-129.
[3]邓慧慧,赵家羚.地方政府经济决策中的“同群效应”[J].中国工业经济,2018,(4):59-78.
[4]邓睦军,龚勤林.中国区域政策的空间选择逻辑[J].经济学家,2017,(12):58-65.
[5]丁嵩,孙斌栋.区域政策重塑了经济地理吗?--空间中性与空间干预的视角[J].经济社会体制比较,2015,(6):56-67.
[6]范剑勇,张雁.经济地理与地区间工资差异[J].经济研究,2009,(8):73-84.
[7]李力行,申广军.经济开发区、地区比较优势与产业结构调整[J].经济学(季刊),2015,(2):885-910.
[8]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?--基于双重差分方法的验证[J].管理世界,2015,(8):30-38.
[9]刘修岩.空间效率与区域平衡:对中国省级层面集聚效应的检验[J].世界经济,2014,(1):55-80.
[10]陆铭.大国大城--当代中国的统一、发展与平衡[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2016.
[11]陆铭.城市、区域和国家发展--空间政治经济学的现在与未来[J].经济学(季刊),2017a,(4):1499-1532.
[12]陆铭.空间的力量:地理、政治与城市发展[M].2版.上海:格致出版社,2017b.
[13]陆铭,向宽虎.破解效率与平衡的冲突--论中国的区域发展战略[J].经济社会体制比较,2014,(4):1-16.
[14]陆铭,钟辉勇.大国发展:地理的政治经济学分析[J].新政治经济学评论,2015,(28):1-19.
[15]魏后凯.中国国家区域政策的调整与展望[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2008,(10):56-64.
[16]吴敏,黄玖立.省级开发区、主导产业与县域工业发展[J].经济学动态,2017,(1):52-61.
[17]向宽虎.地理与政策[D].上海:复旦大学,2014.
[18]向宽虎,陆铭.发展速度与质量的冲突--为什么开发区政策的区域分散倾向是不可持续的?[J].财经研究,2015,(4):4-17.
[19]徐现祥,陈小飞.经济特区:中国渐进改革开放的起点[J].世界经济文汇,2008,(1):14-26.
[20]徐现祥,王贤彬.晋升激励与经济增长:来自中国省级官员的证据[J].世界经济,2010,(2):15-36.
[21]徐现祥,王贤彬,高元骅.中国区域发展的政治经济学[J].世界经济文汇,2011,(3):26-58.
[22]赵勇,魏后凯.政府干预、城市群空间功能分工与地区差距--兼论中国区域政策的有效性[J].管理世界,2015,(8):14-29.
[23]周茂,陆毅,杜艳,等.开发区设立与地区制造业升级[J].中国工业经济,2018,(3):62-79.
[24]周绍杰,王有强,殷存毅.区域经济协调发展:功能界定与机制分析[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2010,(2):141-148.
[25]周玉龙,孙久文.论区域发展政策的空间属性[J].中国软科学,2016,(2):67-80.
[26]朱希伟,陶永亮.经济集聚与区域协调[J].世界经济文汇,2011,(3):1-25.
[27]Alder S,Shao L,Zilibotti F.The effect of economic reform and industrial policy in a panel of Chinese cities[R].University of Zurich Working Paper No.207,2013.
[28]Barca F,McCann P,Rodríguez-Pose A.The case for regional development intervention:Place-based versus place-neutral approaches[J].Journal of Regional Science,2012,52(1):134-152.
[29]Busso M,Gregory J,Kline P.Assessing the incidence and efficiency of a prominent place based policy[J].The American Economic Review,2013,103(2):897-947.
[30]Cai X Q,Lu Y,Wu M Q,et al.Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment?Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China[J].Journal of Development Economics,2016,123:73-85.
[31]Chen B K,Lu M,Xiang K H.Geography versus policy:Exploring how location matters in placed-based policies using a natural experiment in China[R].Working Paper,2016.
[32]Criscuolo C,Martin R,Overman H G,et al.The causal effects of an industrial policy[R].NBER Working Paper No.17842,2012.
[33]Démurger S,Sachs J D,Woo W T,et al.The relative contributions of location and preferential policies in China's regional development:Being in the right place and having the right incentives[J].China Economic Review,2002,13(4):444-465.
[34]Gill I.Regional development policies:Place-based or people-centred?[R].VoxEU.org.09 October 2010.
[35]Givord P,Rathelot R,Sillard P.Place-based tax exemptions and displacement effects:An evaluation of the Zones Franches Urbaines program[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2013,43(1):151-163.
[36]Hewings G J D.Spatially blind trade and fiscal impact policies and their impact on regional economies[J].The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2014,54(4):590-602.
[37]Liu Y L,Lu M,Xiang K H.Balance through Agglomeration:A race between geography and policy in China’s regional development[J].China&World Economy,2018,26(6):72-96.
[38]Lu Y,Wang J,Zhu L M.Do place-based policies work?Micro-level evidence from China's economic zone program[R].SSRN Working paper NO.2635851,2015.
[39]Mayer T,Mayneris F,Py L.The impact of urban enterprise zones on establishment location decisions and labor maket outcomes:Evidence from France[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2017,17(4):709-752.
[40]Neumark D,Simpson H.Place-based policies[R].NBER Working Paper No.20049,2014.
[41]Neumark D,Kolko J.Do enterprise zones create jobs?Evidence from California’s enterprise zone program[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2010,68(1):1-19.
[42]OECD.Regions matter:Economic recovery,innovation and sustainable growth[M].Paris:Organizations for Economic Growth and Development,2009.
[43]Schminke A,van Biesebroeck J.Using export market performance to evaluate regional preferential policies in China[J].Review of World Economics,2013,149(2):343-367.
[44]Wang J.The economic impact of special economic zones:Evidence from Chinese municipalities[J].Journal of Development Economics,2013,101:133-147.
[45]World Bank.World development report 2009:Reshaping economic geography[M].Washington DC:World Bank,2008.
[46]Zheng S Q,Sun W Z,Wu J F,et al.Urban agglomeration and local economic growth in China:The role of new industrial parks[R].USC-INET Research Paper No.16-06,2016.
[47]Zheng S Q,Sun W Z,Wu J F,et al.The birth of edge cities in China:Measuring the effects of industrial parks policy[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2017,100:80-103.
(1)关于“区域协调发展”概念,最开始是1992-1994年间提出的。真正的文件出台是1996年3月17日,第八届人大四次会议批准的《“九五”计划和2010年远景目标纲要》中首次将地区之间协调发展作为国民经济和社会发展的指导方针之一。
(1)这一系列文件是《国务院办公厅关于清理整顿各类开发区加强建设用地管理的通知》(国办发[2003]70号)、《国务院关于加大工作力度进一步治理整顿土地市场秩序的紧急通知》(国发明电[2003]7号)和《清理整顿现有各类开发区的具体标准和政策界限》《国家发展和改革委员会、国土资源部、建设部、商务部关于清理整顿现有各类开发区的具体标准和政策界限的通知》。
(1)根据我们的统计,发现2003年清理整顿后80%的新增省级开发区以前是省级以下开发区,因此使用这种处理组的反向效果比较接近开发区清理整顿的政策效果。