青海省1975、2005、2015年传染病死亡率变化及影响因素定量分析探讨
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摘要
目的定量分析人口因素和非人口因素对青海省1975-2015年间传染病死亡率变化趋势的影响。方法采用死亡率差别分解法,对青海省1975年、2005年、2015年死因资料进行分析,计算人口因素和其他因素对青海省传染病死亡率变化的影响值。结果 1975年与2015年数据比较,青海省传染病死亡率由195. 383/10万下降为14. 756/10万,分解法得出人口因素和非人口因素共同作用使传染病死亡率大幅下降,两者贡献率分别为10. 1%、89. 9%。1975年与2005年比较,两者作用结果一致,贡献率分别为11. 6%、88. 4%,但是2005年与2015年比较,人口因素在传染病死亡率下降中呈现了反向作用效果,而且作用比例达到-39. 1%。结论目前青海省传染病防控工作重点在于慢性传染病的非人口因素的预防和控制。需重点加强慢性传染病的筛查和规范化治疗、管理,通过有效措施改善农牧区居民生活行为方式,减少新发病例。
Objective To analyze quantitatively the impact of population and non-population factors on the trend of the mortality rate of infectious diseases in Qinghai province from 1975 to 2015. Methods The mortality differential decomposition method was used to analyze thecauses of death in Qinghai Province in 1975,2005 and 2015,and to calculate the influence of population factors and other factors on the change of infectious diseases mortality in Qinghai Province. Results Compared with the data of 1975 and 2015,the mortality rate of infectious diseases in Qinghai was reduced from 195. 383/100 000 to 14. 756/100 000. The decomposition method showed that the combined effect of population factors and non population factors made the mortality of infectious diseases significantly decreased. The contribution rates were 10. 1% and 89. 9% respectively. In 1975 and 2005,the results were consistent,the contribution rate was 11. 6% and 88. 4% respectively. However,compared with that in 2015,the population factor showed a reverse effect in the decline in the mortality of infectious disease,and the proportion of the effect reached-39. 1%. Conclusion At present,the prevention and control work of infectious diseases in Qinghai focuses on the prevention and control of non-population factors of chronic infectious diseases. It is necessary to strengthen the screening and standardized treatment and management of chronic infectious diseases,and improve the living behavior of local residents in agricultural and pastoral areas through effective measures to reduce new cases.
Objective To analyze quantitatively the impact of population and non-population factors on the trend of the mortality rate of infectious diseases in Qinghai province from 1975 to 2015. Methods The mortality differential decomposition method was used to analyze thecauses of death in Qinghai Province in 1975,2005 and 2015,and to calculate the influence of population factors and other factors on the change of infectious diseases mortality in Qinghai Province. Results Compared with the data of 1975 and 2015,the mortality rate of infectious diseases in Qinghai was reduced from 195. 383/100 000 to 14. 756/100 000. The decomposition method showed that the combined effect of population factors and non population factors made the mortality of infectious diseases significantly decreased. The contribution rates were 10. 1% and 89. 9% respectively. In 1975 and 2005,the results were consistent,the contribution rate was 11. 6% and 88. 4% respectively. However,compared with that in 2015,the population factor showed a reverse effect in the decline in the mortality of infectious disease,and the proportion of the effect reached-39. 1%. Conclusion At present,the prevention and control work of infectious diseases in Qinghai focuses on the prevention and control of non-population factors of chronic infectious diseases. It is necessary to strengthen the screening and standardized treatment and management of chronic infectious diseases,and improve the living behavior of local residents in agricultural and pastoral areas through effective measures to reduce new cases.
引文
[1]沙琼玥,周敏茹,张晟. 2012年青海省疾病监测点死因监测情况分析[J].中国健康教育,2014,30(5):393-396.
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[4]周脉耕,王黎君,黄正京,等.人口老化及危险因素改变对肺癌死亡率的影响[J].中国卫生统计,2002,19(3):161-162.
[5]马吉祥,张吉玉,徐爱强,等.山东省1970-2005年人群死亡率及死因变化与差别分解分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2008,29(7):700-705.
[6]曲文勇,王芝芳,赵帅. 2006-2013年威海市恶性肿瘤死亡特征及趋势分析[J].现代预防医学,2015,42(20):3664-3667.
[7]胡文斌,张婷,秦威,等.江苏省昆山市1993-2014年肺癌死亡趋势及差别分解分析[J].中国公共卫生,2015,32(11):338-342.
[8]周金意,俞浩,韩仁强,等.江苏省人群肺癌死亡的定量研究[J].江苏预防医学,2015,26(4):12-14.
[9]胡文斌,张婷,秦威,等. 1981-2014年江苏省昆山市女性乳腺癌死亡趋势及差别分解分析[J].现代预防医学,2016,43(7):1222-1226.
[10]林玲,徐红,糜跃萍,等. 2005-2014年南通市肝癌死亡率变化趋势及定量研究[J].职业与健康,2017,33(16):2224-2227.
[11]李桂刚,翟玉庭,张发学,等.山东省招远市2008-2012年胃癌发病与死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(7):515-518.
[12]李志坤,张茂镕,颜芳,等. 2006-2015年昆明市居民恶性肿瘤死亡原因及影响因素分析[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2017,25(2):96-100.
[13]胡文斌,秦威,张婷,等. 1993-2014年昆山市糖尿病死亡率趋势分析[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2016,24(8):577-580.
[14]李志坤,张茂镕,沈岚,等.昆明市居民主要慢性病死亡的影响因素分析[J].现代预防医学,2015,42(11):2025-2028.
[15]何柳,石文惠.人口老龄化对中国人群主要慢性非传染性疾病死亡率的影响[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2016,20(2):121-124.
[16]杨功焕,王俊芳,万霞,等.影响中国人群疾病死亡因素的定量分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2005,26(12):934-938.
[17]韦再华,高燕琳,刘京龙,等. 1978-2007年北京市居民死因顺位与死亡率的变化及影响因素[J].中华预防医学杂志,2010,44(12):1146-1147.
[18]孟海英,张政,王翔军. 2003-2013年朝阳区居民死亡率变化及影响因素分析[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2016,24(9):714-716.
[19]叶莺,林曙光,钟文玲,等.福建省慢性病死亡率变化的定量分析[J].海峡预防医学杂志,2007,13(1):16-19.
[2]翟振武.现代人口分析技术[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1989:225-227.
[3]周脉耕,王黎君,黄正京,等.死亡率差别分解法在冠心病死亡率分析中的应用[J].职业与健康,2008,24(6):550-551.
[4]周脉耕,王黎君,黄正京,等.人口老化及危险因素改变对肺癌死亡率的影响[J].中国卫生统计,2002,19(3):161-162.
[5]马吉祥,张吉玉,徐爱强,等.山东省1970-2005年人群死亡率及死因变化与差别分解分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2008,29(7):700-705.
[6]曲文勇,王芝芳,赵帅. 2006-2013年威海市恶性肿瘤死亡特征及趋势分析[J].现代预防医学,2015,42(20):3664-3667.
[7]胡文斌,张婷,秦威,等.江苏省昆山市1993-2014年肺癌死亡趋势及差别分解分析[J].中国公共卫生,2015,32(11):338-342.
[8]周金意,俞浩,韩仁强,等.江苏省人群肺癌死亡的定量研究[J].江苏预防医学,2015,26(4):12-14.
[9]胡文斌,张婷,秦威,等. 1981-2014年江苏省昆山市女性乳腺癌死亡趋势及差别分解分析[J].现代预防医学,2016,43(7):1222-1226.
[10]林玲,徐红,糜跃萍,等. 2005-2014年南通市肝癌死亡率变化趋势及定量研究[J].职业与健康,2017,33(16):2224-2227.
[11]李桂刚,翟玉庭,张发学,等.山东省招远市2008-2012年胃癌发病与死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(7):515-518.
[12]李志坤,张茂镕,颜芳,等. 2006-2015年昆明市居民恶性肿瘤死亡原因及影响因素分析[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2017,25(2):96-100.
[13]胡文斌,秦威,张婷,等. 1993-2014年昆山市糖尿病死亡率趋势分析[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2016,24(8):577-580.
[14]李志坤,张茂镕,沈岚,等.昆明市居民主要慢性病死亡的影响因素分析[J].现代预防医学,2015,42(11):2025-2028.
[15]何柳,石文惠.人口老龄化对中国人群主要慢性非传染性疾病死亡率的影响[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2016,20(2):121-124.
[16]杨功焕,王俊芳,万霞,等.影响中国人群疾病死亡因素的定量分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2005,26(12):934-938.
[17]韦再华,高燕琳,刘京龙,等. 1978-2007年北京市居民死因顺位与死亡率的变化及影响因素[J].中华预防医学杂志,2010,44(12):1146-1147.
[18]孟海英,张政,王翔军. 2003-2013年朝阳区居民死亡率变化及影响因素分析[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2016,24(9):714-716.
[19]叶莺,林曙光,钟文玲,等.福建省慢性病死亡率变化的定量分析[J].海峡预防医学杂志,2007,13(1):16-19.