我国老年人口失能判别及其对健康预期寿命影响分析
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摘要
老年人口失能水平对健康预期寿命的测算具有重要影响,而不同数据来源的老年人口失能水平存在着较大差异。本文以经过模型生命表调整的2015年1%人口抽样数据所计算的生命表为基础,以2010年人口普查、2015年1%人口抽样调查、2015年CHARLS数据和2014年CLHLS数据为资料来源,探讨老年人口分年龄失能状况及其对健康预期寿命测算结果的影响。老年人失能率较大程度地影响着健康预期寿命及其性别年龄模式。无论是失能的主观评价指标还是客观评价指标,不同数据来源的高龄老人失能率差别较大;CHARLS数据中高龄老人失能率偏倚原因可能产生于调查过程中的系统误差,而非样本规模较小;CLHLS和CHARLS中的问卷访题设计也是影响失能程度判别的重要因素。因此,在理论和应用层面上探讨我国老年人口特别是高龄老人失能水平的差异及其原因,逐步形成共识是学界亟待解决的重要问题。
The disability level of the elderly population has an important influence on the estimation of health life expectancy. There are great differences in the disability level of the elderly population from dif-ferent data sources. This paper is based on the life table calculated from the 1% population sample data ad-justed by the model life table,based on the census of 2010,the 1% sample survey of 2015,the CHARLS of2015 and the CLHLS of 2014 data source. We study the influence of age-incapacitation rate on health lifeexpectancy and the reason of different disability. The results showed that the disability rate of the elderlysignificantly affected health life expectancy and its gender and age patterns. No matter whether it is the sub-jective or objective evaluation index of disability,the disability rate of elderly people from different datasources is quite different. The reasons for the bias of disability rate in CHARLS data may be caused by sys-tematic errors in the course of investigation. The questionnaire interview design in the non-sample scale ofCLHLS and CHARLS may also be an important factor to determine the degree of disability. Therefore,onthe theoretical and practical level,it is an important problem to be solved urgently to explore the differenceof disability level of the elderly population,especially the elderly and its causes,and to reach a consensus further.
The disability level of the elderly population has an important influence on the estimation of health life expectancy. There are great differences in the disability level of the elderly population from dif-ferent data sources. This paper is based on the life table calculated from the 1% population sample data ad-justed by the model life table,based on the census of 2010,the 1% sample survey of 2015,the CHARLS of2015 and the CLHLS of 2014 data source. We study the influence of age-incapacitation rate on health lifeexpectancy and the reason of different disability. The results showed that the disability rate of the elderlysignificantly affected health life expectancy and its gender and age patterns. No matter whether it is the sub-jective or objective evaluation index of disability,the disability rate of elderly people from different datasources is quite different. The reasons for the bias of disability rate in CHARLS data may be caused by sys-tematic errors in the course of investigation. The questionnaire interview design in the non-sample scale ofCLHLS and CHARLS may also be an important factor to determine the degree of disability. Therefore,onthe theoretical and practical level,it is an important problem to be solved urgently to explore the differenceof disability level of the elderly population,especially the elderly and its causes,and to reach a consensus further.
引文
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[9]崔焱,李现文,等.养老机构失能老人日常生活活动需求未满足状况调查[J].护理学杂志,2017,32(11):70-73.
[10]尹德挺.老年人日常生活自理能力的多层次研究[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
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[12]Austad S N. Why Women Live Longer than Men:Sex Differences in Longevity[J]. Gender Medicine,2006,3(4):341-342.
[13]王德青,朱建平,陈志强. 2000-2010年福建省人口死亡统计分析[J].西北人口,2014,(4):13-17.
[14]杨付英,郝晓宁,薄涛,等.我国老年人失能现状及其影响因素分析——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析[J].卫生经济研究,2016,(11):7-10.
[15]翟振武,陈佳鞠,李龙. 2015~2100年中国人口与老龄化变动趋势[J].人口研究,2017,41(4):60-71.
[2]第四次中国城乡老年人生活状况抽样调查成果发布[J].中国老年,2016,(21):60-60.
[3]顾大男.老年人健康变动趋势和预测方法国际研究动态[J].中国人口科学,2005,(3):81-86.
[4]胡广宇,谢学勤.健康期望寿命指标分类及评价比较[J].中国社会医学杂志,2012,29(3):149-151.
[5]张文娟,魏蒙.中国老年人的失能水平到底有多高?——多个数据来源的比较[J].人口研究,2015,39(3):34-47.
[6]Momtaz YA,Hamid TA,Ibrahim R. Unmet Needs among Disabled Elderly Malaysians[J]. Soc Sci Med,2012,75(5):859-863.
[7]Martelli CM,Nascimento NE,Suaya JA,et al. Quality of Life among Adults with Confirmed Dengue in Brazil[J]. American Journal of Tropical Medicine&Hygiene,2011,85(4):732-738.
[8]裴晓梅.老年长期照护导论[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[9]崔焱,李现文,等.养老机构失能老人日常生活活动需求未满足状况调查[J].护理学杂志,2017,32(11):70-73.
[10]尹德挺.老年人日常生活自理能力的多层次研究[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[11]Salomon J A,Wang H,Freeman M K,et al. Healthy Life Expectancy for 187 Countries,1990-2010:A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden Disease Study 2010[J]. Lancet,2012,380(9859):2144-2162.
[12]Austad S N. Why Women Live Longer than Men:Sex Differences in Longevity[J]. Gender Medicine,2006,3(4):341-342.
[13]王德青,朱建平,陈志强. 2000-2010年福建省人口死亡统计分析[J].西北人口,2014,(4):13-17.
[14]杨付英,郝晓宁,薄涛,等.我国老年人失能现状及其影响因素分析——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析[J].卫生经济研究,2016,(11):7-10.
[15]翟振武,陈佳鞠,李龙. 2015~2100年中国人口与老龄化变动趋势[J].人口研究,2017,41(4):60-71.