国际移民流入对进出口贸易影响的实证分析——来自美国的证据
|
摘要
本文基于2000～2012年期间美国的移民与贸易数据,实证分析了国际移民流入与美国和48个贸易伙伴双边贸易的关系。研究结果发现:国际移民流入能够显著促进美国与移民来源地之间的双边货物和服务贸易;按照官方语言和发展水平分类发现,将英语作为官方语言地区的国际移民、人类发展指数较低地区的国际移民对双边贸易的促进作用更加明显。美国的国际移民政策值得我国考虑和借鉴,随着我国在国际舞台经济影响力的提升,应该考虑合理的移民流入政策来吸引国际劳动力流入,为我国的经济发展提供新动力。
Using the US immigration and trade data from 2000 to 2012, this paper tests the impact of immigration in US on the bilateral trade between US and its trading partners. The results show that international migration can significantly increase the volume of bilateral trade in goods and services between the United States and its trading partners. According to the official language and the development level, it is found that the promotion function to bilateral trade of international immigration from economies who regard English as an official language and economies who belong to lower human development index countries is more obvious. For the Chinese government, it is necessary to guide the inflow of international migration properly, accelerate the development of the domestic service industry, accelerate the pace of economic restructuring and attract international technical talents, to serve the development of China's foreign trade.
Using the US immigration and trade data from 2000 to 2012, this paper tests the impact of immigration in US on the bilateral trade between US and its trading partners. The results show that international migration can significantly increase the volume of bilateral trade in goods and services between the United States and its trading partners. According to the official language and the development level, it is found that the promotion function to bilateral trade of international immigration from economies who regard English as an official language and economies who belong to lower human development index countries is more obvious. For the Chinese government, it is necessary to guide the inflow of international migration properly, accelerate the development of the domestic service industry, accelerate the pace of economic restructuring and attract international technical talents, to serve the development of China's foreign trade.
引文
[1]蒙英华,孔令强.海外华人网络对中国对外贸易的面板数据分析[J].当代财经, 2007,(9).
[2]王辉耀.中国国际移民报告2015[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2015.(2).
[3]周念利.基于引力模型的中国双边服务贸易流量与出口潜力研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2010, 27(12).
[4]Faini, R. J., et al. Migration:the Controversies and the Evidence[M]. Cambridge University Press, 1999.
[5]Gabriel, J., Felbermayr, Farid.Revisiting the Trade—Migration Nexus:Evidence from New OECD Data[J].World Developmen, 2011(40).
[6]Gould, D. M. Immigration Links to the Home Country:Empirical Implications for US Bilateral Trade flows[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994,76(2).
[7]Head, K., Ries, J. Immigration and Trade Creation:Econometric Evidence from Canada[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics, 1998, 31(1).
[8]Kimura, Fukunari, Hyun-Hoon, Lee. The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services[J].Review of World Economics, 2006, 142(1).
[9]Lee, Jaehwa. Network Effects on International Trade[J]. Economics Letters, 2012, 116(2).
[10] Rauch, J. Networks Versus Markets in International Trade[J]. NBER Working Paper, 1996.
[11] Schiff, M. Substitution in Markusen’s Classic Trade and Factor Movement Complementarity Models[J]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2006.
(1)经济合作组织的国家移民双边数据库通过两个维度统计了国际移民:(1)按照出生地是否在东道国划分;(2)按照现有国籍是否为东道国国籍划分;本文采取和国际移民报告中相同的方法,按出生地划分是否为国际移民。由于数据可得性的限制,我们选取了截至2012年在美国移民存量达到10万人次以上的国家或地区作为样本,一共选取了48个国家和地区,样本涉及NAFTA、CAFTA、APEC、WTO的多个成员,因此具有代表性。
(2)我们根据发展水平层次,将48个国家(地区)分为13个发达国家(地区)和35个发展中国家(地区),发达国家和地区指联合国2013年发布的HDI指数中very high human development地区。
[2]王辉耀.中国国际移民报告2015[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2015.(2).
[3]周念利.基于引力模型的中国双边服务贸易流量与出口潜力研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2010, 27(12).
[4]Faini, R. J., et al. Migration:the Controversies and the Evidence[M]. Cambridge University Press, 1999.
[5]Gabriel, J., Felbermayr, Farid.Revisiting the Trade—Migration Nexus:Evidence from New OECD Data[J].World Developmen, 2011(40).
[6]Gould, D. M. Immigration Links to the Home Country:Empirical Implications for US Bilateral Trade flows[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994,76(2).
[7]Head, K., Ries, J. Immigration and Trade Creation:Econometric Evidence from Canada[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics, 1998, 31(1).
[8]Kimura, Fukunari, Hyun-Hoon, Lee. The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services[J].Review of World Economics, 2006, 142(1).
[9]Lee, Jaehwa. Network Effects on International Trade[J]. Economics Letters, 2012, 116(2).
[10] Rauch, J. Networks Versus Markets in International Trade[J]. NBER Working Paper, 1996.
[11] Schiff, M. Substitution in Markusen’s Classic Trade and Factor Movement Complementarity Models[J]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2006.
(1)经济合作组织的国家移民双边数据库通过两个维度统计了国际移民:(1)按照出生地是否在东道国划分;(2)按照现有国籍是否为东道国国籍划分;本文采取和国际移民报告中相同的方法,按出生地划分是否为国际移民。由于数据可得性的限制,我们选取了截至2012年在美国移民存量达到10万人次以上的国家或地区作为样本,一共选取了48个国家和地区,样本涉及NAFTA、CAFTA、APEC、WTO的多个成员,因此具有代表性。
(2)我们根据发展水平层次,将48个国家(地区)分为13个发达国家(地区)和35个发展中国家(地区),发达国家和地区指联合国2013年发布的HDI指数中very high human development地区。