人口年龄结构对出口产品结构的影响——基于三期迭代模型的理论分析及经验证据
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摘要
要素禀赋的比较优势不但取决于要素总量,还受要素结构的影响,因而要素结构的变化会对出口结构产生影响。三期迭代模型分析表明,人口年龄结构不仅会影响劳动力供给总量,还会通过居民的消费(储蓄)行为变化对生产结构和资本存量产生影响,进而对出口产品结构产生影响,具体表现为老龄化和少子化程度的提高会促使出口比较优势和出口产品结构向资本密集型产品偏移。对2003—2015年140个国家和地区的实证分析表明:老年抚养比与资本密集型产品出口占比正相关,少儿抚养比与资本密集型产品出口占比负相关;随着老龄化和少子化程度以及收入水平的提高,老年抚养比和少儿抚养比对出口产品结构的边际影响逐渐减小。中国应适应人口年龄结构的变化趋势,转变贸易发展方式,实现贸易结构的转型升级。
The comparative advantage of factor endowment not only depends on factor gross but also is affected by factor structure,as a result,the change of factor structure produces the influence on export structure. The analysis based on the three-stage iterative model shows that population age structure not only affects labor supply gross but also influences production structure and capital stock through the change of inhabitants' consumption( savings)behavior,furthermore,affects export product structure. Specific expression is that the increase of aging and fewer children can boost the change of export comparative advantage and export product structure towards capital-intensive products. The empirical analysis based on 140 countries and regions during 2003—2015 shows that there is positive correlation between elderly dependency ratio and capital-intensive product export,that there is negative correlation between children dependency ratio and capital-intensive product export,and that with the increase of aging and fewer children,the marginal influence of elderly dependency ratio and children dependency ratio on export product structure gradually becomes smaller. China should conform with the change trend of population age structure,change trade development ways and realize the transformation and upgrading of trade structure.
The comparative advantage of factor endowment not only depends on factor gross but also is affected by factor structure,as a result,the change of factor structure produces the influence on export structure. The analysis based on the three-stage iterative model shows that population age structure not only affects labor supply gross but also influences production structure and capital stock through the change of inhabitants' consumption( savings)behavior,furthermore,affects export product structure. Specific expression is that the increase of aging and fewer children can boost the change of export comparative advantage and export product structure towards capital-intensive products. The empirical analysis based on 140 countries and regions during 2003—2015 shows that there is positive correlation between elderly dependency ratio and capital-intensive product export,that there is negative correlation between children dependency ratio and capital-intensive product export,and that with the increase of aging and fewer children,the marginal influence of elderly dependency ratio and children dependency ratio on export product structure gradually becomes smaller. China should conform with the change trend of population age structure,change trade development ways and realize the transformation and upgrading of trade structure.
引文
[1]邓兴华,崔凡,林洲钰.全球贸易结构演化与贸易增长——基于引力模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2015(7):25-34.
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[8]田巍,姚洋,余淼杰,等.人口结构与国际贸易[J].经济研究,2013(11):87-99.
[9]王有鑫,赵雅婧.人口年龄结构与出口比较优势——理论框架和实证经验[J].世界经济研究,2016(4):78-93.
[10]武康平,张永亮.老龄化趋势下年龄依赖型要素对比较优势的影响——来自中国的经验研究[J].经济学报,2018(2):63-93.
[11]乐菡.人口年龄结构变动对居民消费需求的影响研究[J].上海经济,2018(3):71-85.
[12]王有鑫.人口老龄化对出口的影响:理论和实证的分析[D].南开大学,2014.
[13] NAITO T,ZHAO L. Aging,transitional dynamics,and gains from trade[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2009,33(8):1531-1542.
[14] LALL S. The technological structure and performance of developing country manufactured exports,1985–98[J]. Oxford Development Studies,2000,28(3):337-369.
[15] LADD H F,MURRAY S E. Intergenerational conflict reconsidered:County demographic structure and the demand for public education[J]. Economics of Education Review,2001,20(4):343-357.
[16]戴小勇,成力为.金融发展对企业融资约束与研发投资的影响机理[J].研究与发展管理,2015(3):25-33.
[17]杨鸿涛.金融视角下的中国储蓄——投资转化率提升路径研究[D].天津财经大学,2015.
[18]朱玮玮.双向FDI与中国制造业产业结构升级——基于省级动态面板的实证分析[J].兰州财经大学学报,2017,33(1):110-117.
[2] BLOOM D E,WILLIAMSON J G. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in Emerging Asia[J]. NBER Working Papers,1997,3(12):419-455.
[3] LEFF N H. Dependency rates and savings rates[J]. American Economic Review,1969,59(5):886-896.
[4] BLOOM D E,SACHS J D. Geography,demography,and economic growth in Africa[J]. Brookings Pap Econ Act,1998,1998(2):207-295.
[5] HIGGINS M. Demography,national savings,and international capital flows[J]. International Economic Review,1997,39(2):343-369.
[6] HIGGINS M,WILLIAMSON J G. Age structure dynamics in Asia and dependence on foreign capital[J]. Population&Development Review,1997,23(2):261-293.
[7]钟水映,李魁.人口年龄结构转变对经常项目差额的影响机制与实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2009(9):34-39.
[8]田巍,姚洋,余淼杰,等.人口结构与国际贸易[J].经济研究,2013(11):87-99.
[9]王有鑫,赵雅婧.人口年龄结构与出口比较优势——理论框架和实证经验[J].世界经济研究,2016(4):78-93.
[10]武康平,张永亮.老龄化趋势下年龄依赖型要素对比较优势的影响——来自中国的经验研究[J].经济学报,2018(2):63-93.
[11]乐菡.人口年龄结构变动对居民消费需求的影响研究[J].上海经济,2018(3):71-85.
[12]王有鑫.人口老龄化对出口的影响:理论和实证的分析[D].南开大学,2014.
[13] NAITO T,ZHAO L. Aging,transitional dynamics,and gains from trade[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2009,33(8):1531-1542.
[14] LALL S. The technological structure and performance of developing country manufactured exports,1985–98[J]. Oxford Development Studies,2000,28(3):337-369.
[15] LADD H F,MURRAY S E. Intergenerational conflict reconsidered:County demographic structure and the demand for public education[J]. Economics of Education Review,2001,20(4):343-357.
[16]戴小勇,成力为.金融发展对企业融资约束与研发投资的影响机理[J].研究与发展管理,2015(3):25-33.
[17]杨鸿涛.金融视角下的中国储蓄——投资转化率提升路径研究[D].天津财经大学,2015.
[18]朱玮玮.双向FDI与中国制造业产业结构升级——基于省级动态面板的实证分析[J].兰州财经大学学报,2017,33(1):110-117.