人工智能威胁论:逻辑考察与哲学辨析
|
摘要
近来年,人工智能发展异常迅猛,引发了一些学者的担忧,他们认为人工智能在不久的将来可能会威胁人类生存。从哲学和逻辑的角度考察这个议题,试图构造一个溯因推理论证驳斥这一论题。如果人工智能会威胁人类生存,那么它必然拥有情感认知能力。获得这种能力可能要借助全脑仿真技术,而这项技术的实现过程中会遇到"指数爆炸"问题。威胁论的论证基于归纳推理,不具备必然的可靠性。但如果仅将威胁论视为一个信念,进行一场类似"帕斯卡赌"的赌局,考虑到信念成真的巨大代价,有必要采取一些防范措施。
In recent years,with the rapid development of artificial intelligence,some scholars are concerned that in the near future,artificial intelligence may threaten human survival.This issue is examined from the philosophical and logical point of view so as to construct an argument of abduction.If artificial intelligence threatens human survival in the future,it must have emotional cognition.To acquire this ability,whole brain simulation is likely to be relied upon and the realization of this technology may face the "exponential explosion".The current argumentation of this hypothesis is based on induction and does not have the necessary reliability.However,if the thesis of threat is only treated as a belief whereby agambling similar to the"Pascal's wager"is conducted,risks of a belief becoming the reality can be huge.Thus,it is necessary to take some precautions.
In recent years,with the rapid development of artificial intelligence,some scholars are concerned that in the near future,artificial intelligence may threaten human survival.This issue is examined from the philosophical and logical point of view so as to construct an argument of abduction.If artificial intelligence threatens human survival in the future,it must have emotional cognition.To acquire this ability,whole brain simulation is likely to be relied upon and the realization of this technology may face the "exponential explosion".The current argumentation of this hypothesis is based on induction and does not have the necessary reliability.However,if the thesis of threat is only treated as a belief whereby agambling similar to the"Pascal's wager"is conducted,risks of a belief becoming the reality can be huge.Thus,it is necessary to take some precautions.
引文
[1]王礼鑫.马克思主义新认识论与人工智能——人工智能不是威胁人类文明的科技之火[J].自然辩证法通讯,2018,40(4):15-19.
[2]黄欣荣.人工智能与人类未来[J].新疆师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,39(4):101-110.
[3]李恒威,王昊晟.人工智能威胁与心智考古学[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2017,38(12):76-83.
[4]江晓原.人工智能:威胁人类文明的科技之火[J].探索与争鸣,2017(10):18-21.
[5]江晓原.人工智能的危险前景[J].编辑学刊,2015(5):40-41.
[6]尼克·波斯特洛姆.超级智能:路线图、危险性与应对策略[M].张体伟,张玉青,译.北京:中信出版社,2015.
[7] Tegmark M.Life 3.0:Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence[M]. New York:Alfred A.Knopf,2017.
[8]微软小冰.阳光失了玻璃窗[M].北京:北京联合出版公司,2017.
[9] Kelly K.The Myth of a Superhuman AI[EB/OL].(2017-04-05)[2018-06-16].https:∥www.wired.com/2017/04/the-myth-of-a-superhuman-ai/.
[10] Yampolskiy R.Leakproofing the Singularity Artificial Intelligence Confinement Problem[J].Journal of Consciousness Studies,2012,19(1/2):194-214.
[11] Bostrom N.Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority[J].Global Policy,2013,4(1):15-31.
[12] Danaher J.Why AI Doomsayers Are Like Sceptical Theists and Why It Matters[J].Minds and Machines,2015,25(3):231-246.
[13]姚人杰.人工智能对人类构成威胁吗?[J].世界科学,2015(4):58-59.
[14]李帅.防范人工智能潜在威胁[N].中国社会科学报,2018-09-04(7).
[15]邓小铁.智能系统中人类伦理嵌入的计算挑战[J].科学与社会,2018(1):1-13.
[2]黄欣荣.人工智能与人类未来[J].新疆师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,39(4):101-110.
[3]李恒威,王昊晟.人工智能威胁与心智考古学[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2017,38(12):76-83.
[4]江晓原.人工智能:威胁人类文明的科技之火[J].探索与争鸣,2017(10):18-21.
[5]江晓原.人工智能的危险前景[J].编辑学刊,2015(5):40-41.
[6]尼克·波斯特洛姆.超级智能:路线图、危险性与应对策略[M].张体伟,张玉青,译.北京:中信出版社,2015.
[7] Tegmark M.Life 3.0:Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence[M]. New York:Alfred A.Knopf,2017.
[8]微软小冰.阳光失了玻璃窗[M].北京:北京联合出版公司,2017.
[9] Kelly K.The Myth of a Superhuman AI[EB/OL].(2017-04-05)[2018-06-16].https:∥www.wired.com/2017/04/the-myth-of-a-superhuman-ai/.
[10] Yampolskiy R.Leakproofing the Singularity Artificial Intelligence Confinement Problem[J].Journal of Consciousness Studies,2012,19(1/2):194-214.
[11] Bostrom N.Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority[J].Global Policy,2013,4(1):15-31.
[12] Danaher J.Why AI Doomsayers Are Like Sceptical Theists and Why It Matters[J].Minds and Machines,2015,25(3):231-246.
[13]姚人杰.人工智能对人类构成威胁吗?[J].世界科学,2015(4):58-59.
[14]李帅.防范人工智能潜在威胁[N].中国社会科学报,2018-09-04(7).
[15]邓小铁.智能系统中人类伦理嵌入的计算挑战[J].科学与社会,2018(1):1-13.