外商投资、产业结构与城乡收入差距——基于状态空间模型分析
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摘要
基于中国1984—2015年外商投资、产业结构和城乡收入差距的时间序列数据,采用时变参数状态空间模型,运用KALMAN滤波算法考察产业结构和外商投资对中国城乡收入差距随时间变化的动态影响。研究发现:外商投资、产业结构与城乡收入差距间存在长期协整关系,外商投资对城乡收入差距的影响较小,并不是影响我国城乡收入差距的主要因素,外商投资对缩小城乡收入持续有着积极的影响;第二产业比重、产业结构高级化水平与城乡收入差距始终正相关,第二产业比重增加与产业结构水平高级化都进一步加剧了城乡收入差距。建议进一步利用外商投资发展我国现代化农业,积极发展农业产业化发展,并积极吸收农村剩余劳动力投入第三产业发展,同时提高农村务工人员的技能与素质,重视农村务工人员的专业技能培训,使其可以从事信息咨询、商贸物流等相对高收入的工作;制定政策吸引高素质人才留在农村,提高我国农业现代化生产水平,切实提高农村居民的收入水平,实现持续缩小城乡收入差距。
Based on the time series data of China's foreign investment,industrial structure and urban-rural income gap from 1984 to2015,using the time-varying parameter state space model and KALMAN filtering algorithm,this paper investigates the dynamic impact of industrial structure and foreign investment on China's urban-rural income gap over time. There is a long-term co-integration relationship between industrial structure and income gap between urban and rural areas.Foreign investment has less impact on income gap between urban and rural areas. It is not the main factor affecting income gap between urban and rural areas in China. Foreign investment has a positive impact on narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. The proportion of secondary industry,the level of advanced industrial structure and the income gap between urban and rural areas have a positive impact. There is always a positive correlation between the increase in the proportion of secondary industry and the upgrading of industrial structure,which further aggravates the income gap between urban and rural areas. It is suggested that foreign investment be further used to develop modern agriculture in China,actively develop agricultural industrialization,and actively absorb surplus rural labor into the development of tertiary industry,while improving rural areas. The skills and qualities of migrant workers should be emphasized,and the professional skills training of rural migrant workers should be emphasized so that they can engage in relatively high-income work such as information consultation,business logistics,etc. Policies should be formulated to attract high-quality talents to stay in the countryside,improve the level of modern agricultural production in China,effectively improve the income level of rural residents,and achieve sustainable development. Continue to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.
Based on the time series data of China's foreign investment,industrial structure and urban-rural income gap from 1984 to2015,using the time-varying parameter state space model and KALMAN filtering algorithm,this paper investigates the dynamic impact of industrial structure and foreign investment on China's urban-rural income gap over time. There is a long-term co-integration relationship between industrial structure and income gap between urban and rural areas.Foreign investment has less impact on income gap between urban and rural areas. It is not the main factor affecting income gap between urban and rural areas in China. Foreign investment has a positive impact on narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. The proportion of secondary industry,the level of advanced industrial structure and the income gap between urban and rural areas have a positive impact. There is always a positive correlation between the increase in the proportion of secondary industry and the upgrading of industrial structure,which further aggravates the income gap between urban and rural areas. It is suggested that foreign investment be further used to develop modern agriculture in China,actively develop agricultural industrialization,and actively absorb surplus rural labor into the development of tertiary industry,while improving rural areas. The skills and qualities of migrant workers should be emphasized,and the professional skills training of rural migrant workers should be emphasized so that they can engage in relatively high-income work such as information consultation,business logistics,etc. Policies should be formulated to attract high-quality talents to stay in the countryside,improve the level of modern agricultural production in China,effectively improve the income level of rural residents,and achieve sustainable development. Continue to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.
引文
[1]李亮.产业结构、二元经济结构变迁对城乡收入差距的影响研究[J].统计与决策,2014(18):103-106.
[2]郑小三,李小克.产业结构、固定资产投资与城乡收入差距---基于中部地区省级面板数据的实证分析[J].经济与管理,2012(7):71-79.
[3]郑兴无.产业结构、经济增长与城乡收入差距关系实证研究[J].商业经济研究,2015(9):52-54.
[4]高霞.产业结构变动与城乡收入差距关系的协整分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011(6):120-128.
[5]程莉.产业结构的合理化、高级化会否缩小城乡收入差距---基1985-2014年中国省级面板数据的经验分析[J].现代财经,2014(11):82-92.
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[7]李小玉,郭文.基于面板数据的中部地区产业结构与城乡收入差距关系的实证研究[J].企业经济,2011(2):136-141.
[8]黄可人,韦廷柒.经济增长、产业结构变迁与城乡居民收入差距[J].工业技术经济,2016(4):145-152.
[9]常远,吴鹏.财政分权、产业结构调整与城乡收入差距[J].广东财政大学学报,2016(5):27-36.
[10]刘叔申,吕凯波.财政支出结构、产业结构和城乡居民收入差距---基于1978-2006年省级面板数据的研究[J].经济问题,2011(11):42-45.
[11]徐敏,张小林.金融集聚、产业结构升级与城乡居民收入差距[J].金融论坛,2014(12):26-32.
[12]王亚飞,黄勇,唐爽.城镇化、产业结构调整对城乡收入差距的作用机理及动态分析[J].当代经济管理,2015(3):56-62.
[13]穆怀中,吴鹏.城镇化、产业结构优化与城乡收入差距[J].经济学家,2016(5):37-44.
[14]徐春华,刘力.省域市场潜力、产业结构升级与城乡收入差距---基于空间关联与空间异质性的视角[J].农业技术经济,2015(5):34-46.
[15]Atkinson A.B.,A.Brandolini.2003.Promise and Pitfalls in the Use of Secondary Data-Sets:Income Inequality in OECDCountries as a Case Study[J].Journal of Economic Literature(39):771-799.
[16]Bornali Bhadari.Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect US Income Inequality?[J].Applied Economics,2004:1045-1049.
[17]Kecin Sylwster.Foreign Direct Investment,Growth and Income Inequality in Less Developed Countries[J].International Review of Applied Economics,Taylor&Francis Journals,2005,19(3):289-300.
[18]Liu,Teng.China’s Purpost of Importing Technology-Innovation or Substitution[J].Science and Technology in China(3),2010:1032-1039.
[19]Atkinson,A.b.,and A.Brandolini.Global World Income Inequality:Absolut,Relative or Intermediate?[C].Paper presented at the 28thGeneral Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth,2004:22-28.
[20]周春应.外商直接投资与城乡收入差距关系的经验分析-以江苏省为例[J].科技与管理,2010(4):773-775.
[21]钟晓君,刘德学.服务业FDI、职工工资与行业收入差距---以广东为例[J].国际经贸探索,2013(3):46-49.
[22]王冬冬.FDI对江苏省收入差距影响的多视角分析[J].技术经济,2012(8):116-120.
[23]李晓璇.农业全要素生产率对城乡收入差距的影响---基于长三角城市群面板数据的实证研究[D].
[24]郑磊,汪旭辉.外商直接投资流入加大了中国省际城乡收入差距吗---基于空间视角下的分析[J].宏观经济研究,2018(3):62-80.
[25]赵晓霞.对外贸易、FDI与中国城乡居民收入结构变化的对比研究---来自中国省际面板数据的证据[J].国际贸易问题,2010(9):22-27.
[26]褚敏,靳涛.FDI与城乡收入差距的动态关系揭示[J].经济与管理,2016(4):54-60.
[27]徐晓慧.FDI与城乡收入差距[J].国际经贸探索,2014(1):17-31.
[28]李贵茜.FDI与我国城乡收入差距---以山东省为例[J].东岳论丛,2014(4):144-148.
[29]沈桂龙,宋方钊.FDI对中国收入分配差距的影响及对策---基于多维变量基础上的实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2011(10):69-74.
[30]阚大学,罗良文.外商直接投资、人力资本与城乡收入差距---基于省级面板数据的实证研究[J].财经科学,2013(2):110-116.
[31]何枫,徐桂林.FDI与我国城乡居民收入差距之间是否存在倒U形关系[J].国际贸易问题,2010(11):22-27.
[32]张安驰,姜德波.FDI会影响城乡收入差距吗[J].上海财经大学学报,2015(3):89-96.
[33]刘渝琳,滕洋洋,李后建.全要素生产率、外商直接投资与我国城乡收入差距---基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].财经科学,2013(3):119-124.
[34]Dietz T,Rosa E A.Rethinking the Environmental Inpacts of Population,Affluence,an Technology[J].Human Ecology Reciew,1994(1):277-300.
[2]郑小三,李小克.产业结构、固定资产投资与城乡收入差距---基于中部地区省级面板数据的实证分析[J].经济与管理,2012(7):71-79.
[3]郑兴无.产业结构、经济增长与城乡收入差距关系实证研究[J].商业经济研究,2015(9):52-54.
[4]高霞.产业结构变动与城乡收入差距关系的协整分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011(6):120-128.
[5]程莉.产业结构的合理化、高级化会否缩小城乡收入差距---基1985-2014年中国省级面板数据的经验分析[J].现代财经,2014(11):82-92.
[6]卢冲,刘媛,江培元.产业结构、农村居民收入结构与城乡收入差距[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(3):147-150.
[7]李小玉,郭文.基于面板数据的中部地区产业结构与城乡收入差距关系的实证研究[J].企业经济,2011(2):136-141.
[8]黄可人,韦廷柒.经济增长、产业结构变迁与城乡居民收入差距[J].工业技术经济,2016(4):145-152.
[9]常远,吴鹏.财政分权、产业结构调整与城乡收入差距[J].广东财政大学学报,2016(5):27-36.
[10]刘叔申,吕凯波.财政支出结构、产业结构和城乡居民收入差距---基于1978-2006年省级面板数据的研究[J].经济问题,2011(11):42-45.
[11]徐敏,张小林.金融集聚、产业结构升级与城乡居民收入差距[J].金融论坛,2014(12):26-32.
[12]王亚飞,黄勇,唐爽.城镇化、产业结构调整对城乡收入差距的作用机理及动态分析[J].当代经济管理,2015(3):56-62.
[13]穆怀中,吴鹏.城镇化、产业结构优化与城乡收入差距[J].经济学家,2016(5):37-44.
[14]徐春华,刘力.省域市场潜力、产业结构升级与城乡收入差距---基于空间关联与空间异质性的视角[J].农业技术经济,2015(5):34-46.
[15]Atkinson A.B.,A.Brandolini.2003.Promise and Pitfalls in the Use of Secondary Data-Sets:Income Inequality in OECDCountries as a Case Study[J].Journal of Economic Literature(39):771-799.
[16]Bornali Bhadari.Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect US Income Inequality?[J].Applied Economics,2004:1045-1049.
[17]Kecin Sylwster.Foreign Direct Investment,Growth and Income Inequality in Less Developed Countries[J].International Review of Applied Economics,Taylor&Francis Journals,2005,19(3):289-300.
[18]Liu,Teng.China’s Purpost of Importing Technology-Innovation or Substitution[J].Science and Technology in China(3),2010:1032-1039.
[19]Atkinson,A.b.,and A.Brandolini.Global World Income Inequality:Absolut,Relative or Intermediate?[C].Paper presented at the 28thGeneral Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth,2004:22-28.
[20]周春应.外商直接投资与城乡收入差距关系的经验分析-以江苏省为例[J].科技与管理,2010(4):773-775.
[21]钟晓君,刘德学.服务业FDI、职工工资与行业收入差距---以广东为例[J].国际经贸探索,2013(3):46-49.
[22]王冬冬.FDI对江苏省收入差距影响的多视角分析[J].技术经济,2012(8):116-120.
[23]李晓璇.农业全要素生产率对城乡收入差距的影响---基于长三角城市群面板数据的实证研究[D].
[24]郑磊,汪旭辉.外商直接投资流入加大了中国省际城乡收入差距吗---基于空间视角下的分析[J].宏观经济研究,2018(3):62-80.
[25]赵晓霞.对外贸易、FDI与中国城乡居民收入结构变化的对比研究---来自中国省际面板数据的证据[J].国际贸易问题,2010(9):22-27.
[26]褚敏,靳涛.FDI与城乡收入差距的动态关系揭示[J].经济与管理,2016(4):54-60.
[27]徐晓慧.FDI与城乡收入差距[J].国际经贸探索,2014(1):17-31.
[28]李贵茜.FDI与我国城乡收入差距---以山东省为例[J].东岳论丛,2014(4):144-148.
[29]沈桂龙,宋方钊.FDI对中国收入分配差距的影响及对策---基于多维变量基础上的实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2011(10):69-74.
[30]阚大学,罗良文.外商直接投资、人力资本与城乡收入差距---基于省级面板数据的实证研究[J].财经科学,2013(2):110-116.
[31]何枫,徐桂林.FDI与我国城乡居民收入差距之间是否存在倒U形关系[J].国际贸易问题,2010(11):22-27.
[32]张安驰,姜德波.FDI会影响城乡收入差距吗[J].上海财经大学学报,2015(3):89-96.
[33]刘渝琳,滕洋洋,李后建.全要素生产率、外商直接投资与我国城乡收入差距---基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].财经科学,2013(3):119-124.
[34]Dietz T,Rosa E A.Rethinking the Environmental Inpacts of Population,Affluence,an Technology[J].Human Ecology Reciew,1994(1):277-300.