进口商品价格对国内消费价格的传递效应研究——基于商品分类视角和面板数据的实证分析
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摘要
本文实证分析了不同类型商品(中间品、消费品、资源品)进口价格对国内不同类型商品(食品、衣着、医药、交通和家庭设备)消费价格指数的影响。研究结果表明:资源品进口价格上升、消费品进口价格上升都会引致中国国内消费价格上升,资源品进口价格的影响机制是成本增加效应,消费品进口价格的影响机制是需求结构升级效应;中间品进口价格上升对我国国内消费价格的影响效应不稳定、影响方向不确定,原材料类中间品进口价格的影响机制是成本下降效应和成本上升效应,机器设备类中间品进口价格的影响机制是质量升级效应、成本转嫁效应和效率提升效应。在制定政策应对外部冲击对国内消费价格的影响时,中国政府应依据进口商品的特点和属性,制定有差异的政策。
This paper conducts an empirical analysis on the effects of changes in import prices of intermediate goods,consumption goods and resource goods on domestic consumer price indices of five kinds of commodities( food,cloth,medicine,transportation and household appliances). The results are as follows: A rise in the import prices of both resource and consumption goods leads domestic consumer prices to go up. Specifically,import prices of resource goods pass to domestic consumer prices through rising costs effect while import prices of consumption goods pass through by demand structure upgrading effect; The rise of import prices of intermediate goods has no certain effect on domestic consumer prices. However,heterogeneous effects exist in the pass-through of different intermediate goods. Import price of raw materials affects domestic prices through costs changing effect. Import price of equipment affects domestic prices through quality upgrading effect,cost shifting effect and efficiency improving effect. Therefore,our government should consider the features and nature of import goods when making targeted polices to deal with shocks from import price pass-through.
This paper conducts an empirical analysis on the effects of changes in import prices of intermediate goods,consumption goods and resource goods on domestic consumer price indices of five kinds of commodities( food,cloth,medicine,transportation and household appliances). The results are as follows: A rise in the import prices of both resource and consumption goods leads domestic consumer prices to go up. Specifically,import prices of resource goods pass to domestic consumer prices through rising costs effect while import prices of consumption goods pass through by demand structure upgrading effect; The rise of import prices of intermediate goods has no certain effect on domestic consumer prices. However,heterogeneous effects exist in the pass-through of different intermediate goods. Import price of raw materials affects domestic prices through costs changing effect. Import price of equipment affects domestic prices through quality upgrading effect,cost shifting effect and efficiency improving effect. Therefore,our government should consider the features and nature of import goods when making targeted polices to deal with shocks from import price pass-through.
引文
[1]陈梦根.国际因素影响中国物价水平的传导机制研究[J].西南民族大学学报,2014(10):118-125.
[2]罗知,郭熙保.进口商品价格波动对城镇居民消费支出的影响[J].经济研究,2010(12):111-124.
[3]民生证券研究所课题.不可高估输入型通胀压力[N].中国证券报,2011-02-17.
[4]王孝松,谢申祥.国际农产品价格如何影响了中国农产品价格[J].经济研究,2012(3):141-153.
[5]魏浩,张昊.贸易协定对中国进出口价格波动影响的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2018(8):1-10.
[6]魏浩.进口定价权、进口价格与不同类型商品的进口战略[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2016(1):80-105.
[7]王聪,魏浩.进口产品价格、出口产品价格与中国的进口产品价格波动.国际贸易问题,2017(7):38-49.
[8]吴剑飞,方勇.中国的通货膨胀:一个新开放宏观模型及其检验[J].金融研究,2010(5):13-29.
[9]谢明旸.我国大宗初级商品进口价格变化对CPI的影响[J].价格理论与实践,2011(1):68-69.
[10]杨子晖,温雪莲.价格国际传递链中的“中国因素”研究[J].统计研究,2010(2):87-93.
[11]张军,金煜.中国的金融深化和生产率关系的再检测:1987—2001[J].经济研究,2005(11):34-45.
[12]张平,刘霞辉,张晓晶,等.外部冲击与中国的通货膨胀[J].经济研究,2008(5):4-18+115.
[13]周英峰.我国消费品进口步伐为何持续加快[EB/OL]. http://finance. people. com. cn/GB/8408294. html.
[14]BACHMEIER L J,SWANSON N R. Predicting Inflation:Doesthe Quantity Theory Help?[J]. Economic Inquiry,2005,43(3):570-585.
[15]BOWE M,SALTVEDT T M. Currency Invoicing Practices,Exchange Rate Volatilityand Pricing-To-Market:Evidence from Product Level Data[J]. International Business Review,2004,13(3):281-308.
[16]CAMPA J M,GOLDBERG L S. Exchange Rate Pass-Throughinto Import Prices[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2005,87(4):679-690.
[17]FEENSTRA R C,GAGNON J E,KNETTER MM. Market Share and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in World Automobile Trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,1996,40(1):187-207.
[18]GOLDBERG P K,KNETTER MM. Goods Prices and Exchange Rates:What Have We Learned?[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35(3):1243-1272.
[19]KARA H,ˇGNF. Inflation Targetingand Exchange Rate Pass-Through:The Turkish Experience[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2008,44(6):52-66.
[20]KORHONEN M,VILMI L. Competitionand Exchange Rate Pass-Through[J]. International Economics Letters,2014(1):5-11.
[21]LAURENCE M BALL. Has Globalization Change Inflation[R]. Nber Working Papers,2006:12687.
[22]ODONGO T,MUWANGA J W. Price Pass-Through Effect within Uganda’s Cotton Industry Following Trade Liberalization[J]. American Journal of Economics,2014,4(4):159-170.
[23] PAIN N, KOSKE I, SOLLIE M. Globalization and Inflation in the OECD Economies[R]. OECD Publishing,2006.
[24]POLLARD P S,COUGHLIN C C. Size Matters:Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through at the Industry Level[R].Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series,2003.
[25]TANG K,WANG C,WANG S. China's Imported Inflation and Global Commodity Prices[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2014,50(3):162-177.
[26]TAYEBNIA A,ZANDIEH R. The Effects of Globalization on Inflation in Iran[J]. Iranian Economic Research,2009(13):53-96.
[27]TYERS R,BAIN I,BU Y. China's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate:A Counterfactual Analysis[J]. Pacific Economic Review,2008,13(1):17-39.
[28]YELLEN,JANET L. Speech at the Euro and the Dollar in Globalized Economy Conference[R]. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,2006:5.
[29]YOUSEFI A,WIRJANTO T S. Exchange Rateof the US Dollar and the J Curve:The Case of Oil Exporting Countries[J]. Energy Economics,2003,25(6):741-765.
(1)由于新疆维吾尔自治区等部分省、直辖市、自治区未公布月度社会消费品零售总额数据,本文以国家统计局公布的各省、直辖市、自治区季度数据来替代部分省、直辖市、自治区的月度消费品零售总额。
(2)中国人民银行网址为http://www.pbc.gov.cn/。
(3)国际清算银行网址为http://www.bis.org/。
(4)中经网统计数据库网址为htpp://cei.gov.cn/。
(5)海关统计资讯网网址为www.chinacustomsstat.com/。
[2]罗知,郭熙保.进口商品价格波动对城镇居民消费支出的影响[J].经济研究,2010(12):111-124.
[3]民生证券研究所课题.不可高估输入型通胀压力[N].中国证券报,2011-02-17.
[4]王孝松,谢申祥.国际农产品价格如何影响了中国农产品价格[J].经济研究,2012(3):141-153.
[5]魏浩,张昊.贸易协定对中国进出口价格波动影响的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2018(8):1-10.
[6]魏浩.进口定价权、进口价格与不同类型商品的进口战略[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2016(1):80-105.
[7]王聪,魏浩.进口产品价格、出口产品价格与中国的进口产品价格波动.国际贸易问题,2017(7):38-49.
[8]吴剑飞,方勇.中国的通货膨胀:一个新开放宏观模型及其检验[J].金融研究,2010(5):13-29.
[9]谢明旸.我国大宗初级商品进口价格变化对CPI的影响[J].价格理论与实践,2011(1):68-69.
[10]杨子晖,温雪莲.价格国际传递链中的“中国因素”研究[J].统计研究,2010(2):87-93.
[11]张军,金煜.中国的金融深化和生产率关系的再检测:1987—2001[J].经济研究,2005(11):34-45.
[12]张平,刘霞辉,张晓晶,等.外部冲击与中国的通货膨胀[J].经济研究,2008(5):4-18+115.
[13]周英峰.我国消费品进口步伐为何持续加快[EB/OL]. http://finance. people. com. cn/GB/8408294. html.
[14]BACHMEIER L J,SWANSON N R. Predicting Inflation:Doesthe Quantity Theory Help?[J]. Economic Inquiry,2005,43(3):570-585.
[15]BOWE M,SALTVEDT T M. Currency Invoicing Practices,Exchange Rate Volatilityand Pricing-To-Market:Evidence from Product Level Data[J]. International Business Review,2004,13(3):281-308.
[16]CAMPA J M,GOLDBERG L S. Exchange Rate Pass-Throughinto Import Prices[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2005,87(4):679-690.
[17]FEENSTRA R C,GAGNON J E,KNETTER MM. Market Share and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in World Automobile Trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,1996,40(1):187-207.
[18]GOLDBERG P K,KNETTER MM. Goods Prices and Exchange Rates:What Have We Learned?[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35(3):1243-1272.
[19]KARA H,ˇGNF. Inflation Targetingand Exchange Rate Pass-Through:The Turkish Experience[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2008,44(6):52-66.
[20]KORHONEN M,VILMI L. Competitionand Exchange Rate Pass-Through[J]. International Economics Letters,2014(1):5-11.
[21]LAURENCE M BALL. Has Globalization Change Inflation[R]. Nber Working Papers,2006:12687.
[22]ODONGO T,MUWANGA J W. Price Pass-Through Effect within Uganda’s Cotton Industry Following Trade Liberalization[J]. American Journal of Economics,2014,4(4):159-170.
[23] PAIN N, KOSKE I, SOLLIE M. Globalization and Inflation in the OECD Economies[R]. OECD Publishing,2006.
[24]POLLARD P S,COUGHLIN C C. Size Matters:Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through at the Industry Level[R].Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series,2003.
[25]TANG K,WANG C,WANG S. China's Imported Inflation and Global Commodity Prices[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2014,50(3):162-177.
[26]TAYEBNIA A,ZANDIEH R. The Effects of Globalization on Inflation in Iran[J]. Iranian Economic Research,2009(13):53-96.
[27]TYERS R,BAIN I,BU Y. China's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate:A Counterfactual Analysis[J]. Pacific Economic Review,2008,13(1):17-39.
[28]YELLEN,JANET L. Speech at the Euro and the Dollar in Globalized Economy Conference[R]. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,2006:5.
[29]YOUSEFI A,WIRJANTO T S. Exchange Rateof the US Dollar and the J Curve:The Case of Oil Exporting Countries[J]. Energy Economics,2003,25(6):741-765.
(1)由于新疆维吾尔自治区等部分省、直辖市、自治区未公布月度社会消费品零售总额数据,本文以国家统计局公布的各省、直辖市、自治区季度数据来替代部分省、直辖市、自治区的月度消费品零售总额。
(2)中国人民银行网址为http://www.pbc.gov.cn/。
(3)国际清算银行网址为http://www.bis.org/。
(4)中经网统计数据库网址为htpp://cei.gov.cn/。
(5)海关统计资讯网网址为www.chinacustomsstat.com/。