豫皖湘赣承接产业转移的空间计量经济分析
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摘要
豫皖湘赣四省是新一轮产业转移的重要承接地。利用标准差、变异系数、赫芬达尔指数、聚类分析、ESDA及空间计量经济模型等方法对四省承接产业转移的区域差异及影响因素进行研究。研究表明:(1)豫皖湘赣四省承接产业转移的总量和绝对差异都在拉大,相对差异和集中程度都在降低后,有趋于稳定趋势;(2)空间分布上大致形成以省会城市为核心、中间高四周低的圈层等级结构;(3)空间格局上,空间集聚态势进一步强化,逐步形成以郑州市和南昌市为核心的两大高高集聚区;(4)空间交互作用是四省承接产业转移空间差异形成的重要因素;(5)劳动力成本对产业转移有负向作用,经济发展水平、市场吸引力、技术创新能力、集聚效应、成本因素、对外开放度、区位条件及产业结构对产业转移具有正向作用,市场吸引力、集聚效应及对外开放度影响最大。
Since the international financial crisis in 2008, large-scale industrial transfer from the eastern coast to the inland has happened in China. A new round of industrial transfer mainly occurred in Henan-Anhui-HunanJiangxi Region, and the spatial pattern of manufacturing sectors in these provinces has been reshaped. The article makes a research on the space differences and the forming mechanism of the undertaking industrial transfer of these 4 provinces, using the methods of standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Herfindahl index,cluster analysis, ESDA, spatial econometric model and so on. The findings can be summarized as follows: 1)The total amount and absolute disparity of the four provinces' undertaking industrial transfer are widening and have a stable tendency after the relative disparity and degree of concentration's decreasing; 2) In the spatial distribution, center on the provincial capital city and the rating-circle structure which is high in the middle and low on all sides have been roughly formed; 3) In the spatial pattern, the spatial agglomeration situation is further strengthened.The high-high agglomeration areasand the core of Zhengzhou and Nanchang, are gradually formed; 4) Spatial interaction plays a decisive role in the formation of spatial variation of four provinces' industrial transfer; 5) Labour cost has a negative effect on the industrial transfer, while the economic development level, market attractiveness, capability of technological innovation, agglomeration effect, cost factors, degree of openness, geographic conditions and the industrial structure have a positive effect on industry transfer,especially the market attractiveness, agglomeration effect and degree of openness are the most influential factors.
Since the international financial crisis in 2008, large-scale industrial transfer from the eastern coast to the inland has happened in China. A new round of industrial transfer mainly occurred in Henan-Anhui-HunanJiangxi Region, and the spatial pattern of manufacturing sectors in these provinces has been reshaped. The article makes a research on the space differences and the forming mechanism of the undertaking industrial transfer of these 4 provinces, using the methods of standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Herfindahl index,cluster analysis, ESDA, spatial econometric model and so on. The findings can be summarized as follows: 1)The total amount and absolute disparity of the four provinces' undertaking industrial transfer are widening and have a stable tendency after the relative disparity and degree of concentration's decreasing; 2) In the spatial distribution, center on the provincial capital city and the rating-circle structure which is high in the middle and low on all sides have been roughly formed; 3) In the spatial pattern, the spatial agglomeration situation is further strengthened.The high-high agglomeration areasand the core of Zhengzhou and Nanchang, are gradually formed; 4) Spatial interaction plays a decisive role in the formation of spatial variation of four provinces' industrial transfer; 5) Labour cost has a negative effect on the industrial transfer, while the economic development level, market attractiveness, capability of technological innovation, agglomeration effect, cost factors, degree of openness, geographic conditions and the industrial structure have a positive effect on industry transfer,especially the market attractiveness, agglomeration effect and degree of openness are the most influential factors.
引文
[1]段小薇,李璐璐,苗长虹,等.中部六大城市群产业转移综合承接能力评价研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):681-690.[Duan Xiaowei, Li Lulu, Miao Changhong et al. Evaluation of industry transfer comprehensive undertaking ability of six major urban agglomerations in the central region. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(5):681-690.]
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[11]李伟,贺灿飞.劳动力成本上升与中国制造业空间转移[J].地理科学, 2017,37(9):1289-1299.[Li Wei, He Canfei. The rising labor costs and spatial restructure of Chinese manufacturing.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(9):1289-1299.]
[12]李俊峰,陶世杰,高凌宇.跨江发展下杭州市企业迁移空间模式及影响机制[J].地理科学,2018,38(1):87-96.[Li Junfeng,Tao Shijie, Gao Lingyu. The space model and the influenc mechanism of enterprise migration under river-crossing development in Hangzhou. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(1):87-96.]
[13]符文颖,邓金玲.产业转型背景下创业区位选择和集群空间演化[J].地理科学,2017,37(6):833-840.[Fu Wenying, Deng Jinling. Locational choice of start-ups and spatial evolution of Clusters in the context of industrial restructuring. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(6):833-840.]
[14]王云平.产业转移问题研究的有关观点综述[J].经济管理,2013, 35(6):175-187.[Wang Yunping. Literature review on industry transfer:Viewpoints and comments. Economic Managemet, 2013,35(6):175-187.]
[15]人民论坛问卷调查中心.经济增长动能抑或政治晋升比拼——当代中国地方政府竞争状况问卷调查分析报告[J].人民论坛,2010(13):12-15.[People’s BBS Questionnaire Survey Center. Economic growth momentum or political promotion competition—Analysis report on local government competition in contemporary China. People’s Tribune, 2010(13):12-15.]
[16]张龙鹏,周立群.产业转移缩小了区域经济差距吗——来自中国西部地区的经验数据[J].财经科学,2015(2):80-88.[Zhang Longpeng, Zhou Liqun. Does industrial transfer narrow regional inequality—Empirical study from western China. Finance and Economics, 2015(2):80-88.]
[17]张建伟,赵建吉,张战仁.江苏省研发产业空间差异演变研究[J].世界地理研究,2013,22(2):123-130+175.[Zhang Jianwei,Zhao Jianji, Zhang Zhanren. Research on spatial differences evolution of R&D industry in Jiangsu Province. World Regional Studies,2013,22(2):123-130+175.]
[18] Kelejian H H, Prucha I R. Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2010, 157(1):53-67.
[19] Lee L-F, Yu J. Estimation of spatial autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2010,154(1):165-185.
[20] Lesage J P, Pace R K. Advances in econometrics:Spatial and spatiotemporal econometrics[M]. London:Emerald Publishing Limited,2004.
[21] Wang X, Kockelman K M.Application of the dynamic spatial ordered probit model:Patterns of land development change in Austin, Texas[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 2009, 88(5):345-365.
[22] Fischer M M, Griffith D A. Modeling spatial autocorrelation in spatial interaction data:An application to patent citation data in the European union[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 2008, 48(5):969-989.
[23] Kelejian H H. A spatial J-test for model specification against a single or a set of non-nested alternatives[J]. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2008,1(1):3-11.
[24] Fingleton B. Prediction using panel data regression with spatial random effects[J]. International Regional Science Review, 2009,32(4):173-194.
[25]张建伟,苗长虹,姜海宁.中国GDP偏离度的空间计量经济分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(5):515-520.[Zhang Jianwei, Miao Changhong, Jiang Haining. A spatial econometric analysis of china’s GDP deviation degree. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(5):515-520.]
[26]贺灿飞,王俊松.经济转型与中国省区能源强度研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(4):461-469.[He Canfei, Wang Junsong. Economic transition and energy intensity in China. Scientia Geographical Sinica, 2009,29(4):461-469.]
[27]桑瑞聪,刘志彪,王亮亮.我国产业转移的动力机制:以长三角和珠三角地区上市公司为例[J].财经研究,2013,39(5):99-111.[Sang Ruicong, Liu Zhibiao, Wang Liangliang. The motivation mechanism of industry transfer in China:Evidence from listed companies in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2013,39(5):99-111.]
[28]郑谦,胡春阳,赵瑾.技术创新能力差异对产业转移迟滞作用分析[J].科技进步与对策,2012,29(12):57-62.[Zheng Qian, Hu Chunyang, Zhao Jin. The analysis of different technical innovation capacity’s impact on industry transfer retardation. Science&Technology Progress and Policy, 2012,29(12):57-62.]
[2]赵建吉,茹乐峰,段小微,等.产业转移的经济地理学研究:进展与展望[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):1-6.[Zhao Jianji,Ru Lefeng, Duan Xiaowei et al. Industrial transfer study in economic geography:Progress and prospect. Economic Geography, 2014,34(1):1-6.]
[3]河南省统计局.河南统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010-2016.[Henan Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Statistical yearbook of Henan Province. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2010-2016.]
[4]湖南省统计局.河南统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010-2016.[Hunan Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Statistical yearbook of Hunan Province. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2010-2016]
[5]安徽省统计局.安徽统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010-2016.[Anhui Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Statistical yearbook of Anhui Province. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2010-2016.]
[6]江西省统计局.江西统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010-2016.[Jiangxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Statistical yearbook of Jiangxi Province. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2010-2016.]
[7]李春光,徐元国,屈时雨.河南承接产业转移城市综合承载力的时空演变[J].经济地理,2017,37(1):134-141.[Li Chunguang,Xu Yuanguo, Qu Shiyu. Sequential dynamic variation and geographic spatial distribution of Henan urban comprehensive carrying capacity under industry transfer. Economic Geography,2017,37(1):134-141.]
[8] Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, Daniel Liviano-Solis, Miguel Manjon-Antol. Empirical studies in industrial location:An assessment of their methods and results[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 2010,50(3):685-711.
[9] Schuh Scott, Ro Cert Triest.The evolution of regional manufacturing employment:Gross Job Flows within and betweenFirms and Industries[J]. New England Economic Review, 2002(2):35-53.
[10]段小薇,苗长虹,赵建吉.河南承接制造业转移的时空格局研究[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(1):72-82.[Duan Xiaowei, Miao Changhong, Zhao Jianji. Spatio-temporal pattern of undertaking manufacturing’s transfer in Henan Province. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(1):72-82.]
[11]李伟,贺灿飞.劳动力成本上升与中国制造业空间转移[J].地理科学, 2017,37(9):1289-1299.[Li Wei, He Canfei. The rising labor costs and spatial restructure of Chinese manufacturing.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(9):1289-1299.]
[12]李俊峰,陶世杰,高凌宇.跨江发展下杭州市企业迁移空间模式及影响机制[J].地理科学,2018,38(1):87-96.[Li Junfeng,Tao Shijie, Gao Lingyu. The space model and the influenc mechanism of enterprise migration under river-crossing development in Hangzhou. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(1):87-96.]
[13]符文颖,邓金玲.产业转型背景下创业区位选择和集群空间演化[J].地理科学,2017,37(6):833-840.[Fu Wenying, Deng Jinling. Locational choice of start-ups and spatial evolution of Clusters in the context of industrial restructuring. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(6):833-840.]
[14]王云平.产业转移问题研究的有关观点综述[J].经济管理,2013, 35(6):175-187.[Wang Yunping. Literature review on industry transfer:Viewpoints and comments. Economic Managemet, 2013,35(6):175-187.]
[15]人民论坛问卷调查中心.经济增长动能抑或政治晋升比拼——当代中国地方政府竞争状况问卷调查分析报告[J].人民论坛,2010(13):12-15.[People’s BBS Questionnaire Survey Center. Economic growth momentum or political promotion competition—Analysis report on local government competition in contemporary China. People’s Tribune, 2010(13):12-15.]
[16]张龙鹏,周立群.产业转移缩小了区域经济差距吗——来自中国西部地区的经验数据[J].财经科学,2015(2):80-88.[Zhang Longpeng, Zhou Liqun. Does industrial transfer narrow regional inequality—Empirical study from western China. Finance and Economics, 2015(2):80-88.]
[17]张建伟,赵建吉,张战仁.江苏省研发产业空间差异演变研究[J].世界地理研究,2013,22(2):123-130+175.[Zhang Jianwei,Zhao Jianji, Zhang Zhanren. Research on spatial differences evolution of R&D industry in Jiangsu Province. World Regional Studies,2013,22(2):123-130+175.]
[18] Kelejian H H, Prucha I R. Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2010, 157(1):53-67.
[19] Lee L-F, Yu J. Estimation of spatial autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2010,154(1):165-185.
[20] Lesage J P, Pace R K. Advances in econometrics:Spatial and spatiotemporal econometrics[M]. London:Emerald Publishing Limited,2004.
[21] Wang X, Kockelman K M.Application of the dynamic spatial ordered probit model:Patterns of land development change in Austin, Texas[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 2009, 88(5):345-365.
[22] Fischer M M, Griffith D A. Modeling spatial autocorrelation in spatial interaction data:An application to patent citation data in the European union[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 2008, 48(5):969-989.
[23] Kelejian H H. A spatial J-test for model specification against a single or a set of non-nested alternatives[J]. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2008,1(1):3-11.
[24] Fingleton B. Prediction using panel data regression with spatial random effects[J]. International Regional Science Review, 2009,32(4):173-194.
[25]张建伟,苗长虹,姜海宁.中国GDP偏离度的空间计量经济分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(5):515-520.[Zhang Jianwei, Miao Changhong, Jiang Haining. A spatial econometric analysis of china’s GDP deviation degree. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(5):515-520.]
[26]贺灿飞,王俊松.经济转型与中国省区能源强度研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(4):461-469.[He Canfei, Wang Junsong. Economic transition and energy intensity in China. Scientia Geographical Sinica, 2009,29(4):461-469.]
[27]桑瑞聪,刘志彪,王亮亮.我国产业转移的动力机制:以长三角和珠三角地区上市公司为例[J].财经研究,2013,39(5):99-111.[Sang Ruicong, Liu Zhibiao, Wang Liangliang. The motivation mechanism of industry transfer in China:Evidence from listed companies in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2013,39(5):99-111.]
[28]郑谦,胡春阳,赵瑾.技术创新能力差异对产业转移迟滞作用分析[J].科技进步与对策,2012,29(12):57-62.[Zheng Qian, Hu Chunyang, Zhao Jin. The analysis of different technical innovation capacity’s impact on industry transfer retardation. Science&Technology Progress and Policy, 2012,29(12):57-62.]